Significance
125 measured / 125 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 125 events
Connected Situation / Through 2026-10-28
Banco Master Investigations and Supreme Court Disputes
- stories
- 288
- events
- 125
- entities
- 563
- connections
- 288
Evidence so far on 2026-10-28 UTC · updated 2026-10-28 00:22 UTC · analysis as of 2026-10-27 10:25 UTCSign in for the live Situation ↗
Narrative
As-of analysis
Situation at a glance
On 4 September, Alessandro Vieira filed an impeachment request against Alexandre de Moraes, as “Alexandre de Moraes faces abuse-of-authority allegations over Banco Master probe” reported. On 11 September, Edson Fachin ordered André Mendonça to lift secrecy in the Banco Master case, covered by “Brazil Supreme Court orders Mendonça to lift secrecy in Master case”. On 12 September, the Brazilian Federal Police accused Banco Master of simulating loans; “Brazilian Federal Police uncover R$17 billion fraud involving Master and BRB” reported the accusation. On 19 September, a lawyer sent a photo linking Paulo Gonet and Daniel Vorcaro in London, as “Lawyer sends photo of Brazil prosecutor Gonet with Vorcaro in London” reported. On 21 September, the Federal Police investigated a contract involving Vorcaro and a judge’s wife’s law office, covered by “Vorcaro firm hired office of Justice Nunes Marques's wife”. On 22 September, Mendonça accused Moraes of ties to Vorcaro in “André Mendonça accuses Brazil's Alexandre de Moraes of ties to Vorcaro”. On 23 September, Luiz Fux ordered Davi Alcolumbre to disclose Senate entry records, as “Brazilian Justice Fux seeks Alcolumbre's response on Vorcaro in Senate” reported.
Footnotes[17][14][15][10][18][9][20][8][21][5][6][22]Assessment
The Federal Police accusation that Banco Master simulated loans and its investigation of a contract involving Vorcaro are investigative allegations, not findings of guilt. Fachin’s secrecy order, the Federal Police delegates’ demand that Gonet recuse himself, and Fux’s request for Alcolumbre to respond about Senate visits are distinct procedural actions; none resolves the underlying allegations. The photo links Gonet and Vorcaro, but does not establish wrongdoing by either man. Mendonça’s accusation about Moraes is an allegation, while the later report that the prosecutor general’s office found no abuse by Mendonça after Moraes sought an investigation of him describes a separate procedural decision. The events and reports show financial allegations alongside disputes over court procedure and political scrutiny; they do not establish that the allegations are true or that the strands share a single cause.
Footnotes[18][9][21][5][15][19][22][20][8][6][1][2]Explanation originally captured 2026-10-27 · Evidence through 2026-10-28 UTC · Source edition sed_6bc5435bf35bad54747eb62ee10f5a82
What informs this explanation
- Complete retained Story and Event membership
- Daily reporting and coded-occurrence time steps
- Event taxonomies, metrics, units, and denominators
- Canonical Entities and recorded actor/target bindings
- Typed reporting, membership, and incident edges
- Changes against the preceding retained edition
- Permitted macro, public-record, and asset facts only when they were retained with an explicit source and observation date
Quantitative
Evidence in numbers
- Scope
A 55-day Situation represented by 125 coded Events carried across 288 member Stories.
- Coded activity
The coded activity is led by CR10 · Police Investigation or Operation (20) and 01 · Make Public Statement (9).
- Prominent subjects
Banco Master, Alexandre de Moraes, and Daniel Vorcaro are prominent in the retained actor and relationship evidence.
- Entity coverage
563 canonical Entities are linked to this edition.
Metric coverage. 125 coded Events · 123 CAMEO+ · 2 conflict. The four dimensions describe the CAMEO+ subset; conflict Events do not carry these scores.
Magnitude3.5
min 1max 9
Systemic importance0.24
min 0.08max 0.57
Propagation potential0.33
min 0max 0.56
Market sensitivity0.11
min 0.05max 0.5
Dot = mean · shaded span = observed range · position uses each metric’s defined scale.
All 8 scores, distributions & definitions
How the coder scored the full retained Event set
125 coded events — 123 CAMEO+ (93 political) · 2 conflict
- Significance · 1250.32min 0.14max 0.57
- Magnitude · 1233.5min 1max 9
- Systemic · 1230.24min 0.08max 0.57
- Propagation · 1230.33min 0max 0.56
- Market · 1230.11min 0.05max 0.5
- Goldstein · 95-1.1min -9.2max 7
- Fatalities · 20min 0max 0
- Confidence · 1250.85min 0.27max 0.98
Quad class over those 95 events · Verbal Conflict 48 · Verbal Cooperation 43 · Material Conflict 4. 30 sit outside POLITICAL, where Goldstein and quad class are undefined. The four CAMEO+ scores are over the 123 CAMEO+ events only; the 2 conflict events have no such column.
Magnitude
123 measured / 123 eligible · 0 missing · 2 not applicable
score (0 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 123 of 125 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Systemic
123 measured / 123 eligible · 0 missing · 2 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 123 of 125 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Propagation
123 measured / 123 eligible · 0 missing · 2 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 123 of 125 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Market
123 measured / 123 eligible · 0 missing · 2 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 123 of 125 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Goldstein
95 measured / 95 eligible · 0 missing · 30 not applicable
score (-10 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 95 of 125 events Goldstein is defined on — CAMEO+ POLITICAL and the conflict family; the other nine CAMEO+ domains have no Goldstein semantics
Fatalities
2 measured / 2 eligible · 0 missing · 123 not applicable
reported people · Reports may overlap; these are Event-level reports, not an additive unique human toll.
across the 2 of 125 events that report a toll — the conflict family only, and never 0 on a CAMEO+ event
Confidence
125 measured / 125 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 125 events
This retained edition, independent of graph and page limits. Different dimensions, not a blended risk score; reported tolls may overlap.
Day by day50 reporting days · click a day to open or close it
2026-10-27from the recordslatest
Brazilian institutions led by Bolsonaro film producer linked to R$184 million in public funds
2 Stories and 0 coded Events (+1 / 0 against the day before). Widest coverage: Brazilian institutions led by Bolsonaro film producer linked to R$184 million in public funds (1 articles).
- 2+1
- Stories · vs day before
- 00
- Events · vs day before
- 2
- articles
The lay of the land
Situation timeline
Threads
All 50 daysarticlesstoriesevents
09-0309-1309-2310-0310-1610-27
Loading Situation timeline…
What kind of event · 41 coded types
over 125 coded events on this edition
- Political93
- 01 · Make Public Statement9
- 1013 · Demand Judicial Cooperation8
- 02 · Appeal6
- 09 · Investigate6
- 1041 · Change Leadership6
- 12 · Reject6
- 111 · Criticize or Denounce5
Countries · where it happened
Countries · who is acting
Salient structure
What holds this Situation together
Selected from the complete retained edition
Key threads
- core
AnalystBanco Master and Vorcaro investigations
The Federal Police accused Banco Master of simulating loans and investigated a contract involving Vorcaro; these remain investigative allegations, not findings of guilt.
- development
AnalystSupreme Court procedure and disputes
Fachin ordered secrecy lifted in the Master case, while reporting described disputes over access to Vorcaro’s phone data and allegations concerning Moraes.
- development
AnalystPolitical and institutional scrutiny
Vieira filed an impeachment request against Moraes, and Randolfe Rodrigues sought Flávio Bolsonaro’s removal from the Senate.
Key actors
- BM
RuleBanco Master
Recorded as target in 3 coded Events, including Brazilian Federal Police accuse Banco Master of simulating loans.
Recorded as target in 3 coded Events, including Brazilian Federal Police accuse Banco Master of simulating loans.
Footnotes[18][?][?] - AM
RuleAlexandre de Moraes
Recorded as target and actor in 12 coded Events, including Alessandro Vieira files impeachment request against Alexandre de Moraes.
Recorded as target and actor in 12 coded Events, including Alessandro Vieira files impeachment request against Alexandre de Moraes.
Footnotes[?][17][?][?][?] - DV
RuleDaniel Vorcaro
Recorded as target and actor in 11 coded Events, including Federal Police uncover Vorcaro contract with judge’s wife’s law office.
Recorded as target and actor in 11 coded Events, including Federal Police uncover Vorcaro contract with judge’s wife’s law office.
Footnotes[?][?][21][?][?] - EF
RuleEdson Fachin
Recorded as actor and target in 20 coded Events, including Edson Fachin orders Mendonça to lift Master case secrecy.
Recorded as actor and target in 20 coded Events, including Edson Fachin orders Mendonça to lift Master case secrecy.
Footnotes[?][?][15][?][?] - LS
RuleLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Recorded as actor and target in 11 coded Events, including Lula demands full disclosure in Banco Master investigation.
Recorded as actor and target in 11 coded Events, including Lula demands full disclosure in Banco Master investigation.
Footnotes[?][16][?][?][?]
Key Events
Notable connections
Evidenced relationships involving significant participants beyond the central cast.
Reports Vieira’s impeachment request against Moraes. · reporting linkAnalystAlexandre de Moraes faces abuse-of-authority allegations over Banco Master probe → Alessandro Vieira files impeachment request against Alexandre de Moraes
The Story is linked to the Event describing the request.
Reports the delegates’ demand that Gonet recuse himself. · reporting linkAnalystPolícia pede a procurador-geral do Brasil que se afaste de investigação em que é → Federal police delegates demand Paulo Gonet recuse himself
The Story reports the demand represented by the Event.
Reports Fachin’s order to lift secrecy in the Master case. · reporting linkAnalystBrazil Supreme Court orders Mendonça to lift secrecy in Master case → Edson Fachin orders Mendonça to lift Master case secrecy
The Story reports the order represented by the Event.
Reports the Federal Police accusation that Banco Master simulated loans. · reporting linkAnalystBrazilian Federal Police uncover R$17 billion fraud involving Master and BRB → Brazilian Federal Police accuse Banco Master of simulating loans
The Story is linked to the Event describing the accusation.
Reports the photo disclosure linking Gonet and Vorcaro. · reporting linkAnalystLawyer sends photo of Brazil prosecutor Gonet with Vorcaro in London → Federal Police leak photo linking Paulo Gonet and Daniel Vorcaro
The Story reports the disclosure represented by the Event.
How a Situation is put together288 Stories · 125 Events · 288 membership connections · 3,885 graph edges
A retained time step
This edition freezes the complete served membership and analysis available through its UTC cutoff. Later repairs or identity changes do not rewrite what this edition showed.
Stories, Events, and cast
Stories are reporting clusters. Events are coded occurrences within that reporting. The cast contains 563 canonical people and organizations linked to the retained evidence.
Typed connections
Story-to-Event edges identify supporting reporting. Entity-to-Event edges identify recorded actor or target participation. Mentions and analytical roles stay visibly distinct from recorded participation.
Core, precursor, and continuation labels organize the reading. They do not by themselves establish causation. Collapsed graph groups and paginated evidence change presentation only; counts use the complete retained edition.