Significance
1 measured / 1 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 1 events
Connected Situation / Through 2026-10-29
Israeli Election Results and Government Formation
- stories
- 5
- events
- 1
- entities
- 51
- connections
- 5
Evidence so far on 2026-10-29 UTC · updated 2026-10-29 08:25 UTC · analysis as of 2026-10-29 07:29 UTCSign in for the live Situation ↗
Narrative
As-of analysis
Situation at a glance
On 27 October 2026, Israel’s Central Elections Committee made a public statement reporting 16.7% turnout in Jerusalem. On 28 October, “Arab parties win strong results and shape Israel’s next government” described strong results for Arab parties and their role in shaping the next government. That day, “Israel's Ben Gvir warns against unity deal, calling it a terrible mistake” reported that Itamar Ben-Gvir warned against a unity deal and called it a terrible mistake. Benjamin Netanyahu and Likud are mentioned in both Stories, but neither is identified as participating in the turnout statement.
Footnotes[3][1][2][4][5][6]Assessment
The Central Elections Committee statement reports turnout in Jerusalem, while the Arab-parties headline concerns election results and government formation. The Ben-Gvir headline reports a warning about a unity deal. The available link between the two Stories is a same-day embedding match; it does not establish a substantive connection, direct causation, or a final government outcome. The supplied Entity details identify Netanyahu, Likud and Ben-Gvir as mentions, not participants in the coded turnout Event.
Footnotes[3][1][2][4][5][6][9]Explanation originally captured 2026-10-29 · Evidence through 2026-10-29 UTC · Source edition sed_9e1c2cef795bfe4f7c54af5a5f1e8708
What informs this explanation
- Complete retained Story and Event membership
- Daily reporting and coded-occurrence time steps
- Event taxonomies, metrics, units, and denominators
- Canonical Entities and recorded actor/target bindings
- Typed reporting, membership, and incident edges
- Changes against the preceding retained edition
- Permitted macro, public-record, and asset facts only when they were retained with an explicit source and observation date
Quantitative
Evidence in numbers
- Scope
A 3-day Situation represented by 1 coded Event carried across 5 member Stories.
- Coded activity
The coded activity is led by 01 · Make Public Statement (1).
- Prominent subjects
🇮🇱Israel is prominent in the retained actor and relationship evidence.
- Entity coverage
51 canonical Entities are linked to this edition.
Metric coverage. 1 coded Events · 1 CAMEO+ · 0 conflict. The four dimensions describe the CAMEO+ subset; conflict Events do not carry these scores.
Magnitude3
min 3max 3
Systemic importance0.12
min 0.12max 0.12
Propagation potential0.34
min 0.34max 0.34
Market sensitivity0.05
min 0.05max 0.05
Dot = mean · shaded span = observed range · position uses each metric’s defined scale.
All 7 scores, distributions & definitions
How the coder scored the full retained Event set
1 coded event — 1 CAMEO+ (1 political)
- Significance · 10.19min 0.19max 0.19
- Magnitude · 13min 3max 3
- Systemic · 10.12min 0.12max 0.12
- Propagation · 10.34min 0.34max 0.34
- Market · 10.05min 0.05max 0.05
- Goldstein · 10min 0max 0
- Confidence · 10.88min 0.88max 0.88
Quad class over that 1 event · Verbal Cooperation 1. No conflict-family event here, so nothing carries a fatality count — a missing column, not a toll of zero.
Magnitude
1 measured / 1 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 1 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Systemic
1 measured / 1 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 1 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Propagation
1 measured / 1 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 1 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Market
1 measured / 1 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 1 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Goldstein
1 measured / 1 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (-10 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 1 of 1 events Goldstein is defined on — CAMEO+ POLITICAL and the conflict family; the other nine CAMEO+ domains have no Goldstein semantics
Confidence
1 measured / 1 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 1 events
This retained edition, independent of graph and page limits. Different dimensions, not a blended risk score; reported tolls may overlap.
Day by day3 reporting days · click a day to open or close it
2026-10-29from the recordslatest
Three years after evacuation, Kiryat Shmona residents return to Likud
2 Stories and 0 coded Events (-1 / 0 against the day before). Widest coverage: Three years after evacuation, Kiryat Shmona residents return to Likud (1 articles).
- 2-1
- Stories · vs day before
- 00
- Events · vs day before
- 2
- articles
The lay of the land
Situation timeline
Threads
All 3 daysarticlesstoriesevents
10-2710-2810-29
Loading Situation timeline…
What kind of event · 1 coded type
over 1 coded event on this edition
- Political1
- 01 · Make Public Statement1
Countries · where it happened
Countries · who is acting
Salient structure
What holds this Situation together
Selected from the complete retained edition
Key threads
- core
AnalystElection results and the next government
“Arab parties win strong results and shape Israel’s next government” links the parties’ results with government formation. The Central Elections Committee’s 27 October statement reported 16.7% turnout in Jerusalem.
- development
AnalystWarning against a unity deal
The 28 October Story reports that Itamar Ben-Gvir warned against a unity deal. The Story is linked to the election-results coverage as coalition-related fallout, not as proof of causation.
Key actors
Key Events
contextAnalystIsrael's Central Elections Committee reports 16.7% turnout
On 27 October 2026, the Central Elections Committee made a public statement reporting 16.7% turnout in Jerusalem.
On 27 October 2026, the Central Elections Committee made a public statement reporting 16.7% turnout in Jerusalem.
Footnotes[3]
Notable connections
Evidenced relationships involving significant participants beyond the central cast.
Election-results coverage linked to a warning about a unity deal · reporting linkAnalystArab parties win strong results and shape Israel’s next government → Israel's Ben Gvir warns against unity deal, calling it a terrible mistake
The link describes the Ben-Gvir Story as concerning coalition or unity negotiations over the next government; it does not establish that the election results caused the warning.
The turnout statement is linked to the Arab-parties election Story · reporting linkAnalystIsrael's Central Elections Committee reports 16.7% turnout → Arab parties win strong results and shape Israel’s next government
The Event is linked to the Arab-parties Story; the link does not establish that the Story’s broader claims are part of the turnout statement.
Itamar Ben-Gvir is mentioned in the unity-deal Story · reporting linkAnalystItamar Ben-Gvir → Israel's Ben Gvir warns against unity deal, calling it a terrible mistake
The Entity identifies Ben-Gvir as mentioned in the Story; it does not establish his participation in the coded Event.
Benjamin Netanyahu is mentioned in the Arab-parties election Story · reporting linkAnalystBenjamin Netanyahu → Arab parties win strong results and shape Israel’s next government
The Entity identifies Netanyahu as mentioned in the Story; it does not establish his participation in the coded Event.
How a Situation is put together5 Stories · 1 Events · 5 membership connections · 70 graph edges
A retained time step
This edition freezes the complete served membership and analysis available through its UTC cutoff. Later repairs or identity changes do not rewrite what this edition showed.
Stories, Events, and cast
Stories are reporting clusters. Events are coded occurrences within that reporting. The cast contains 51 canonical people and organizations linked to the retained evidence.
Typed connections
Story-to-Event edges identify supporting reporting. Entity-to-Event edges identify recorded actor or target participation. Mentions and analytical roles stay visibly distinct from recorded participation.
Core, precursor, and continuation labels organize the reading. They do not by themselves establish causation. Collapsed graph groups and paginated evidence change presentation only; counts use the complete retained edition.