Significance
40 measured / 40 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 40 events
On September 20, Tropical Depression Seventeen-E formed south of Mexico; the Event dates the formation, while “Tropical Depression Seventeen-E forms south of Mexico, may become Polo” presents Polo as a possibility. On September 22, an Event described Polo intensifying to Category 5 strength, and “Hurricane Polo prompts school closures in Guerrero and Michoacán, Mexico” reported school closures. On September 23, Mexico’s Navy (Semar) closed Pacific ports as Polo advanced, as titled in “Mexico Navy closes ports in five states as Hurricane Polo reaches Category 4.” On September 27, the Government of Sonora coordinated a preventive response; separately, Hurricane Nolo knocked out power to Maui customers, as titled in “Hurricane Nolo winds leave 12,370 customers without power on Maui.” On September 28, Events described Polo approaching Baja California Sur with Category 3 winds and flooding homes in El Colorado. A linked story, dated September 29, reported Polo nearing Mexico’s Pacific coast and flash-flood warnings. On September 29, Doña Ana County officials ordered evacuations after levees breached, while another Event attributed heavy rain in Arizona to Polo’s remnants. On October 1, an Event attributed flooding and road damage in southern Sonora to Polo; on October 2, Sonora State Public Security Police delivered relief supplies to families in Tetapeche.
Footnotes[40][18][35][17][21][16][22][20][12][25][29][7]The strongest through-line is Polo’s intensification, Mexican preparations and reported coastal impacts, followed by Sonora flooding and reports connecting its remnants with rain in the U.S. Southwest. The accounts do not establish a single uncontested intensity sequence: Category 5, Category 4 and Category 3 descriptions occur on different dates, and September 24 coverage itself contains both Category 4 and Category 5 descriptions. The September 21 Event names Hurricane Paul, whereas its linked school-closures headline names Polo; that naming mismatch remains unresolved. A separate September 23 Event explicitly attributes school closures across Guerrero to Polo, but does not resolve the September 21 Event’s naming. Doña Ana County officials’ evacuation order followed breached levees, but the Event does not attribute the breach to Polo. Nolo’s Hawaii impacts are separate from Polo’s Mexican impacts. The October 2 headline about Baja California Sur evacuations is linked to an Event describing aid delivered in Tetapeche, so it does not establish that the relief delivery and evacuation were the same action.
Footnotes[40][35][28][25][14][15][8][31][17][27][26][20]Explanation originally captured 2026-11-09 · Evidence through 2026-11-09 UTC · Source edition sed_6575b2afc6b22c65cdec851b4253adff
A 25-day Situation represented by 40 coded Events carried across 92 member Stories.
The coded activity is led by EN02 · Meteorological Hazard (36) and EN01 · Geophysical Hazard (2).
🇲🇽Mexico, 🇺🇸United States, and 🇦🇷Argentina are prominent in the retained actor and relationship evidence.
230 canonical Entities are linked to this edition.
Metric coverage. 40 coded Events · 40 CAMEO+ · 0 conflict. The four dimensions describe the CAMEO+ subset; conflict Events do not carry these scores.
Dot = mean · shaded span = observed range · position uses each metric’s defined scale.
How the coder scored the full retained Event set
40 coded events — 40 CAMEO+ (2 political)
Quad class over those 2 events · Material Cooperation 2. No conflict-family event here, so nothing carries a fatality count — a missing column, not a toll of zero. 38 sit outside POLITICAL, where Goldstein and quad class are undefined.
40 measured / 40 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 40 events
40 measured / 40 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 40 events — every one of them CAMEO+
40 measured / 40 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 40 events — every one of them CAMEO+
40 measured / 40 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 40 events — every one of them CAMEO+
40 measured / 40 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 40 events — every one of them CAMEO+
2 measured / 2 eligible · 0 missing · 38 not applicable
score (-10 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 2 of 40 events Goldstein is defined on — CAMEO+ POLITICAL and the conflict family; the other nine CAMEO+ domains have no Goldstein semantics
40 measured / 40 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 40 events
This retained edition, independent of graph and page limits. Different dimensions, not a blended risk score; reported tolls may overlap.
2026-10-14from the recordslatest
Nature threatens riverside families as the Uruguay River rises
1 Story and 1 coded Event (0 / 0 against the day before). Widest coverage: Flooding leaves more families affected as water levels continue to rise (7 articles).
What kind of event · 4 coded types
over 40 coded events on this edition
Countries · where it happened
Countries · who is acting
Selected from the complete retained edition
These Stories and Events connect Polo’s intensification and coastal approach with Mexican preparations, flooding, infrastructure damage and relief activity.
The Arizona rain Event names Polo’s remnants; the Doña Ana County Event says officials ordered evacuations after levees breached without attributing the breach to Polo.
Separate Events describe flooding in Mexico and Argentina, a Juquila highway landslide and sinkhole, and a landslide affecting homes in Honduras.

On September 20, Tropical Depression Seventeen-E formed south of Mexico; the linked headline says it may become Polo.



On September 27, the Government of Sonora coordinated a preventive response with government agencies at three levels.
Evidenced relationships involving significant participants beyond the central cast.
The Event describes Seventeen-E forming south of Mexico; the linked headline presents Polo as a possibility.
The Event and the linked headline use different storm names.
The Event names Mexico’s Navy (Semar) as the actor closing Pacific ports.
The Event names the Government of Sonora and government agencies at three levels as participants in the coordination.
The Event and headline both describe Nolo winds leaving Maui customers without power.
This edition freezes the complete served membership and analysis available through its UTC cutoff. Later repairs or identity changes do not rewrite what this edition showed.
Stories are reporting clusters. Events are coded occurrences within that reporting. The cast contains 230 canonical people and organizations linked to the retained evidence.
Story-to-Event edges identify supporting reporting. Entity-to-Event edges identify recorded actor or target participation. Mentions and analytical roles stay visibly distinct from recorded participation.
Core, precursor, and continuation labels organize the reading. They do not by themselves establish causation. Collapsed graph groups and paginated evidence change presentation only; counts use the complete retained edition.