Connected Situation / Through 2026-09-26

Hurricanes Polo and Nolo: Mexico and Hawaii

stories: 5
events: 2
entities: 28
connections: 5

Evidence so far on 2026-09-26 UTC · updated 2026-09-26 14:25 UTC · analysis as of 2026-09-26 04:24 UTCSign in for the live Situation ↗

Narrative

As-of analysis

Carried forward

Situation at a glance

On September 25, Hurricane Polo was described as drenching Mexico’s coast while Hurricane Nolo threatened Hawaii in “Hurricane Nolo threatens Hawaii as Hurricane Polo drenches Mexico's coast”; that Story is dated September 25. On September 25, the coded Event “Hurricane Polo strengthens and prompts port closures in Mexico” links Polo to Mexico. The September 26 Story “Los Cabos closes ports as Hurricane Polo approaches” reports the closure; its linked Event, dated September 25, names Mexico’s federal port authority (Capitanía de Puerto) and Los Cabos ports. September 26 reporting continued in “Hurricane Nolo threatens Hawaii with heavy rain as Polo churns near Mexico” and “Category 5 Hurricane Polo strengthens as it heads toward Mexico and the US”; the latter’s headline reports the Category 5 characterization. The September 26 Los Cabos Story also continued reporting on the port closure.

Footnotes[4][5][2][6][1][3][9][10]

Assessment

The September 25 Story headline pairs Polo drenching Mexico’s coast with Nolo threatening Hawaii, and a September 26 Story continues that paired coverage. The port-closure Event is dated September 25, while its linked Story is dated September 26; the connection describes the closure as a precautionary response to Polo’s approach. Neither Event names Nolo as a source or target actor. The Category 5 description appears in a September 26 Story headline, not in either Event title; the Event magnitude scores are separate metrics. Capitanía de Puerto and Protección Civil Los Cabos are linked to the port-closure Story as mentions, and neither entity has a supporting Event.

Footnotes[4][1][3][5][6][11][7][8]

Explanation originally captured 2026-09-26 · Evidence through 2026-09-26 UTC · Source edition sed_5f1b9890b3caca3d9f577b011c42817e

What informs this explanation

Complete retained Story and Event membership
Daily reporting and coded-occurrence time steps
Event taxonomies, metrics, units, and denominators
Canonical Entities and recorded actor/target bindings
Typed reporting, membership, and incident edges
Changes against the preceding retained edition
Permitted macro, public-record, and asset facts only when they were retained with an explicit source and observation date

Quantitative

Evidence in numbers

This retained edition

Scope
A 2-day Situation represented by 2 coded Events carried across 5 member Stories.
Coded activity
The coded activity is led by EN02 · Meteorological Hazard (2).
Prominent subjects
🇲🇽Mexico is prominent in the retained actor and relationship evidence.
Entity coverage
28 canonical Entities are linked to this edition.

Metric coverage. 2 coded Events · 2 CAMEO+ · 0 conflict. The four dimensions describe the CAMEO+ subset; conflict Events do not carry these scores.

Magnitude2

min 1max 3

2 measured

Systemic importance0.13

min 0.12max 0.13

2 measured

Propagation potential0.26

min 0.25max 0.27

2 measured

Market sensitivity0.44

min 0.38max 0.5

2 measured

Dot = mean · shaded span = observed range · position uses each metric’s defined scale.

All 6 scores, distributions & definitions

How the coder scored the full retained Event set

2 coded events — 2 CAMEO+

Significance · 20.29
min 0.27max 0.31
Magnitude · 22
min 1max 3
Systemic · 20.13
min 0.12max 0.13
Propagation · 20.26
min 0.25max 0.27
Market · 20.44
min 0.38max 0.5
Confidence · 20.72
min 0.65max 0.78

No conflict-family event here, so nothing carries a fatality count — a missing column, not a toll of zero. 2 sit outside POLITICAL, where Goldstein and quad class are undefined.