Significance
37 measured / 37 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 37 events
Connected Situation / Through 2026-11-12
RAF Fairford Investigation and Iran Dispute
- stories
- 113
- events
- 37
- entities
- 158
- connections
- 113
Evidence so far on 2026-11-12 UTC · updated 2026-11-12 04:21 UTC · analysis as of 2026-11-11 06:32 UTCSign in for the live Situation ↗
Narrative
As-of analysis
Situation at a glance
On 27 September, Gloucestershire Police arrested men near RAF Fairford on suspicion of explosives-law offences; “Incident reported at U.S. air base in the United Kingdom” and “Several people detained near US air base at RAF Fairford in England” give different descriptions of how many were detained. On 29 September, British counterterrorism police found no bombs near the base, while Donald Trump criticized Britain over the suspects’ release in “Trump criticizes Britain for releasing five arrested near US base.” UK police arrested a British-Iranian man on 1 October, and Iran’s Foreign Ministry protested to the United Kingdom; “UK PM says Iran likely played role in suspected Fairford terror plot” describes possible Iranian involvement, not an established role. On 13 October, the United Kingdom accused Iran’s Revolutionary Guards of directing the plot, and Iran summoned the British ambassador, as “U.K. blames Iran for foiled terror plot targeting RAF Fairford air base” and “Iran summons British ambassador over incident at UK’s Fairford air base” report. U.S. Air Force bomber withdrawal or departure accounts have coded occurrence dates of 4 and 8 October, with a further U.S. Department of Defense transfer account dated 16 October; Marco Rubio called the movements normal rotations and said they were not directly linked to the incident. British authorities rearrested two men on 20 October. Reports dated 21 October described arrests of two Iranian nationals, but the accounts do not establish whether these were the same people or separate arrests.
Footnotes[37][22][23][34][38][20][45][32][17][33][28][8]Assessment
The arrests, bail releases, rearrests and later charges and court appearances establish investigative and legal steps, not guilt or a completed attack; the finding of no bombs qualifies descriptions of a plot. The United Kingdom’s accusation against Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and Iran’s denials, protests and diplomatic demands are opposing positions, not proof of Iranian direction. Bomber reports use different dates and descriptions, but linked source records identify the October 8 and October 16 accounts as referring to the same withdrawal also reported on October 5; Rubio’s statement gives his explanation for the movements. “UK prosecutors charge two people over RAF Fairford incident” and “Two men appear in court charged with national security offences at RAF Fairford” add later legal reporting, but neither headline establishes guilt.
Footnotes[34][45][36][42][43][2][1][33][29][18][6][24]Explanation originally captured 2026-11-11 · Evidence through 2026-11-12 UTC · Source edition sed_7f76a502f02a9c434460a33e010bb9e3
What informs this explanation
- Complete retained Story and Event membership
- Daily reporting and coded-occurrence time steps
- Event taxonomies, metrics, units, and denominators
- Canonical Entities and recorded actor/target bindings
- Typed reporting, membership, and incident edges
- Changes against the preceding retained edition
- Permitted macro, public-record, and asset facts only when they were retained with an explicit source and observation date
Quantitative
Evidence in numbers
- Scope
A 47-day Situation represented by 37 coded Events carried across 113 member Stories.
- Coded activity
The coded activity is led by CR08 · Arrest Charge Conviction or Sentencing (8) and 111 · Criticize or Denounce (5).
- Prominent subjects
Donald Trump, Counter Terrorism Policing, and Marco Rubio are prominent in the retained actor and relationship evidence.
- Entity coverage
158 canonical Entities are linked to this edition.
Metric coverage. 37 coded Events · 31 CAMEO+ · 6 conflict. The four dimensions describe the CAMEO+ subset; conflict Events do not carry these scores.
Magnitude3.3
min 1max 7
Systemic importance0.11
min 0.05max 0.33
Propagation potential0.24
min 0max 0.4
Market sensitivity0.05
min 0.05max 0.15
Dot = mean · shaded span = observed range · position uses each metric’s defined scale.
All 8 scores, distributions & definitions
How the coder scored the full retained Event set
37 coded events — 31 CAMEO+ (22 political) · 6 conflict
- Significance · 370.26min 0.11max 0.54
- Magnitude · 313.3min 1max 7
- Systemic · 310.11min 0.05max 0.33
- Propagation · 310.24min 0max 0.4
- Market · 310.05min 0.05max 0.15
- Goldstein · 28-2min -7.2max 10
- Fatalities · 60min 0max 0
- Confidence · 370.61min 0.25max 0.96
Quad class over those 28 events · Verbal Conflict 13 · Material Conflict 7 · Verbal Cooperation 6 · Material Cooperation 2. 9 sit outside POLITICAL, where Goldstein and quad class are undefined. The four CAMEO+ scores are over the 31 CAMEO+ events only; the 6 conflict events have no such column.
Magnitude
31 measured / 31 eligible · 0 missing · 6 not applicable
score (0 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 31 of 37 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Systemic
31 measured / 31 eligible · 0 missing · 6 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 31 of 37 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Propagation
31 measured / 31 eligible · 0 missing · 6 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 31 of 37 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Market
31 measured / 31 eligible · 0 missing · 6 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 31 of 37 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Goldstein
28 measured / 28 eligible · 0 missing · 9 not applicable
score (-10 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 28 of 37 events Goldstein is defined on — CAMEO+ POLITICAL and the conflict family; the other nine CAMEO+ domains have no Goldstein semantics
Fatalities
6 measured / 6 eligible · 0 missing · 31 not applicable
reported people · Reports may overlap; these are Event-level reports, not an additive unique human toll.
across the 6 of 37 events that report a toll — the conflict family only, and never 0 on a CAMEO+ event
Confidence
37 measured / 37 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 37 events
This retained edition, independent of graph and page limits. Different dimensions, not a blended risk score; reported tolls may overlap.
Day by day24 reporting days · click a day to open or close it
2026-11-12from the recordslatest
Iranian accused of directing RAF Fairford terror plot from New York jail
1 Story and 0 coded Events (-6 / -1 against the day before). Widest coverage: Iranian accused of directing RAF Fairford terror plot from New York jail (1 articles).
- 1-6
- Stories · vs day before
- 0-1
- Events · vs day before
- 1
- articles
The lay of the land
Situation timeline
Threads
All 24 daysarticlesstoriesevents
09-2710-0210-0610-1310-2011-12
Loading Situation timeline…
What kind of event · 17 coded types
over 37 coded events on this edition
- Political22
- 111 · Criticize or Denounce5
- 01 · Make Public Statement4
- 1121 · Crime/corruption2
- 13 · Threaten2
- 04 · Consult1
- 043 · Host A Visit1
- 0841 · Return, Release Persons1
Countries · where it happened
Countries · who is acting
Salient structure
What holds this Situation together
Selected from the complete retained edition
Key threads
- core
AnalystFairford investigation and legal proceedings
This thread follows the Fairford arrests, police findings, later arrests and legal reporting. Those steps describe an investigation and proceedings, not guilt.
- development
AnalystIran attribution and diplomatic dispute
UK officials alleged Iranian involvement, including direction by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards; Iranian officials denied or contested the claims and took diplomatic steps. These actions establish competing positions, not responsibility.
- development
AnalystU.S. bomber movements and competing explanations
Reports and Events give different dates for bomber withdrawal or transfer accounts. Marco Rubio called the movements normal rotations and said they were not directly linked to the incident.
Key actors
- DT
- CT
- MR
Key Events
contextAnalystGloucestershire Police arrest several men near RAF Fairford
Occurred 27 September: Gloucestershire Police arrested several men near RAF Fairford on suspicion of explosives-law offences. “Incident reported at U.S. air base in the United Kingdom” and “Several people detained near US air base at RAF Fairford in England” give differing descriptions of the number detained.
Occurred 27 September: Gloucestershire Police arrested several men near RAF Fairford on suspicion of explosives-law offences. “Incident reported at U.S. air base in the United Kingdom” and “Several people detained near US air base at RAF Fairford in England” give differing descriptions of the number detained.
Footnotes[37][22][23]
contextAnalystIran protests to British ambassador over Fairford allegations
Occurred 1 October: Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs protested to the United Kingdom over the Fairford allegations.
Notable connections
Evidenced relationships involving significant participants beyond the central cast.
“Incident reported at U.S. air base in the United Kingdom” is linked to the Gloucestershire Police arrest Event. · reporting linkAnalystIncident reported at U.S. air base in the United Kingdom → Gloucestershire Police arrest several men near RAF Fairford
The Event links to this Story.
“U.K. blames Iran for foiled terror plot targeting RAF Fairford air base” is linked to the UK accusation Event. · reporting linkAnalystU.K. blames Iran for foiled terror plot targeting RAF Fairford air base → UK accuses Iran's Revolutionary Guards of directing RAF Fairford plot
The Event links to this Story.
Donald Trump was the actor criticizing Britain over the suspects’ release. · recorded participationAnalystTrump criticizes Britain over release of five arrested near US base → Donald Trump
The Event names Donald Trump as actor, and the Entity lists this Event as supporting participation.
Marco Rubio was the actor making the statement about bomber movements. · recorded participationAnalystMarco Rubio calls U.S. bomber movements normal rotations → Marco Rubio
The Event names Marco Rubio as actor, and the Entity lists this Event as supporting participation.
Counter Terrorism Policing released the British-Iranian suspect on bail. · recorded participationAnalystCounter Terrorism Policing → Counter Terrorism Policing releases British-Iranian suspect on bail
The Event names Counter Terrorism Policing as actor, and the Entity lists this Event as supporting participation.
How a Situation is put together113 Stories · 37 Events · 113 membership connections · 690 graph edges
A retained time step
This edition freezes the complete served membership and analysis available through its UTC cutoff. Later repairs or identity changes do not rewrite what this edition showed.
Stories, Events, and cast
Stories are reporting clusters. Events are coded occurrences within that reporting. The cast contains 158 canonical people and organizations linked to the retained evidence.
Typed connections
Story-to-Event edges identify supporting reporting. Entity-to-Event edges identify recorded actor or target participation. Mentions and analytical roles stay visibly distinct from recorded participation.
Core, precursor, and continuation labels organize the reading. They do not by themselves establish causation. Collapsed graph groups and paginated evidence change presentation only; counts use the complete retained edition.