Significance
4 measured / 4 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 4 events
Connected Situation / Through 2026-09-23
Austin ICE Shooting, Enforcement and Protest
- stories
- 10
- events
- 4
- entities
- 30
- connections
- 10
Evidence so far on 2026-09-23 UTC · updated 2026-09-23 04:23 UTC · analysis as of 2026-09-23 00:27 UTCSign in for the live Situation ↗
Narrative
As-of analysis
Situation at a glance
On 2026-09-21, United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement deported Teresa Ochoa to Mexico in Alamo, Texas, and La Frontera Unida led a peaceful protest at the Texas Capitol in Austin; the Events are titled “ICE deports Texas teen's mother Teresa Ochoa to Mexico” and “La Frontera Unida leads peaceful protest at Texas Capitol.” [The 2026-09-22 Story “ICE officer shoots Venezuelan DoorDash driver in Texas” names Wilber Rafael Garces Perez in connection with an Austin shooting, but no shooting Event is coded here.] “Man shot by ICE is hospitalized again while detained in Texas” describes his renewed hospitalization; “ICE-detained migrant says bullet remains lodged in his body” says the bullet remains lodged. “Judge blocks deportation of ICE shooting victim amid missing body-camera reports” describes a court block on deportation. “Socialist groups coordinate anti-ICE protests in Austin” covers the protest, while “Anti-Trump graffiti appears at Austin site where ICE wounded Venezuelan driver” concerns the shooting site.
Footnotes[9][8][1][10][5][7][6][2][4]Assessment
The coded Events establish Ochoa’s deportation and a peaceful protest on September 21, but the shooting appears in a Story rather than a separately coded Event. The three linked aftermath Stories connect the shooting account with renewed hospitalization, the reported lodged bullet and a judicial block on deportation; their headlines do not establish further details about the shooting or the court’s reasoning. The recorded situation connections characterize Ochoa’s deportation as materially prompting the coordinated anti-ICE protests and the shooting as plausibly materially leading to them; these are connection assessments, not separately coded Events establishing causation. On September 22, seven Stories and 159 article appearances accompany no coded Events; that contrast describes reporting and coding composition, not a measured change in activity.
Footnotes[9][8][1][5][7][6][13][2][3][14][15][16]Explanation originally captured 2026-09-23 · Evidence through 2026-09-23 UTC · Source edition sed_4a5432940f71864a7877564861867ebb
What informs this explanation
- Complete retained Story and Event membership
- Daily reporting and coded-occurrence time steps
- Event taxonomies, metrics, units, and denominators
- Canonical Entities and recorded actor/target bindings
- Typed reporting, membership, and incident edges
- Changes against the preceding retained edition
- Permitted macro, public-record, and asset facts only when they were retained with an explicit source and observation date
Quantitative
Evidence in numbers
- Scope
A 3-day Situation represented by 4 coded Events carried across 10 member Stories.
- Coded activity
The coded activity is led by 12 · Reject (1) and CR09 · Prison Jailbreak or Custody Incident (1).
- Prominent subjects
United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement is prominent in the retained actor and relationship evidence.
- Entity coverage
30 canonical Entities are linked to this edition.
Metric coverage. 4 coded Events · 3 CAMEO+ · 1 conflict. The four dimensions describe the CAMEO+ subset; conflict Events do not carry these scores.
Magnitude2.7
min 1max 5
Systemic importance0.1
min 0.08max 0.12
Propagation potential0.25
min 0.22max 0.3
Market sensitivity0.07
min 0.05max 0.1
Dot = mean · shaded span = observed range · position uses each metric’s defined scale.
All 8 scores, distributions & definitions
How the coder scored the full retained Event set
4 coded events — 3 CAMEO+ (1 political) · 1 conflict
- Significance · 40.25min 0.19max 0.33
- Magnitude · 32.7min 1max 5
- Systemic · 30.1min 0.08max 0.12
- Propagation · 30.25min 0.22max 0.3
- Market · 30.07min 0.05max 0.1
- Goldstein · 2-5.3min -6.5max -4
- Fatalities · 10min 0max 0
- Confidence · 40.83min 0.68max 0.98
Quad class over those 2 events · Verbal Conflict 2. 2 sit outside POLITICAL, where Goldstein and quad class are undefined. The four CAMEO+ scores are over the 3 CAMEO+ events only; the 1 conflict events have no such column.
Magnitude
3 measured / 3 eligible · 0 missing · 1 not applicable
score (0 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 3 of 4 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Systemic
3 measured / 3 eligible · 0 missing · 1 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 3 of 4 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Propagation
3 measured / 3 eligible · 0 missing · 1 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 3 of 4 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Market
3 measured / 3 eligible · 0 missing · 1 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 3 of 4 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Goldstein
2 measured / 2 eligible · 0 missing · 2 not applicable
score (-10 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 2 of 4 events Goldstein is defined on — CAMEO+ POLITICAL and the conflict family; the other nine CAMEO+ domains have no Goldstein semantics
Fatalities
1 measured / 1 eligible · 0 missing · 3 not applicable
reported people · Reports may overlap; these are Event-level reports, not an additive unique human toll.
across the 1 of 4 events that report a toll — the conflict family only, and never 0 on a CAMEO+ event
Confidence
4 measured / 4 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 4 events
This retained edition, independent of graph and page limits. Different dimensions, not a blended risk score; reported tolls may overlap.
Day by day3 reporting days · click a day to open or close it
2026-09-23from the recordslatest
ICE-shot Venezuelan man returns to detention after hospital stay in Texas
3 Stories and 0 coded Events (-4 / -2 against the day before). Widest coverage: ICE-shot Venezuelan man returns to detention after hospital stay in Texas (27 articles).
- 3-4
- Stories · vs day before
- 0-2
- Events · vs day before
- 33
- articles
The lay of the land
Situation timeline
Threads
All 3 daysarticlesstoriesevents
09-2109-2209-23
Loading Situation timeline…
What kind of event · 4 coded types
over 4 coded events on this edition
- Conflict1
- PEACEFUL PROTEST1
- Crime1
- CR09 · Prison Jailbreak or Custody Incident1
- Demographic1
- DE02 · Migration Event1
- Political1
- 12 · Reject1
Countries · where it happened
Countries · who is acting
Salient structure
What holds this Situation together
Selected from the complete retained edition
Key threads
- core
AnalystAustin ICE shooting and aftermath
“ICE officer shoots Venezuelan DoorDash driver in Texas” is connected to Stories describing renewed hospitalization, a bullet reportedly remaining lodged, a deportation block, and graffiti at the shooting site.
- development
AnalystAustin anti-ICE protest
La Frontera Unida led a peaceful protest at the Texas Capitol; “Socialist groups coordinate anti-ICE protests in Austin” reports on protest activity.
- development
Key actors
- US
AnalystUnited States Immigration and Customs Enforcement
United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement is the source actor for the Event describing Teresa Ochoa’s deportation.
Key Events
contextAnalystICE deports Texas teen's mother Teresa Ochoa to Mexico
United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement deported Teresa Ochoa to Mexico in Alamo, Texas, on 2026-09-21.
United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement deported Teresa Ochoa to Mexico in Alamo, Texas, on 2026-09-21.
Footnotes[9]
contextAnalystLa Frontera Unida leads peaceful protest at Texas Capitol
La Frontera Unida led a peaceful protest at the Texas Capitol in Austin on 2026-09-21; the Event reports zero fatalities.
La Frontera Unida led a peaceful protest at the Texas Capitol in Austin on 2026-09-21; the Event reports zero fatalities.
Footnotes[8]
Notable connections
Evidenced relationships involving significant participants beyond the central cast.
United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement acted as the source actor in the deportation of Teresa Ochoa. · recorded participationAnalystUnited States Immigration and Customs Enforcement → ICE deports Texas teen's mother Teresa Ochoa to Mexico
The Event identifies United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement as its source actor.
The Story reports the deportation summarized by the Event. · reporting linkAnalystICE deports mother of Texas teen after viral confrontation → ICE deports Texas teen's mother Teresa Ochoa to Mexico
The Event lists “ICE deports mother of Texas teen after viral confrontation” as its supporting Story.
The Story reports the peaceful Texas Capitol protest summarized by the Event. · reporting linkAnalystSocialist groups coordinate anti-ICE protests in Austin → La Frontera Unida leads peaceful protest at Texas Capitol
The Event lists “Socialist groups coordinate anti-ICE protests in Austin” as its supporting Story.
The renewed-hospitalization Story is connected to the shooting Story as an aftermath development. · analytical connectionAnalystICE officer shoots Venezuelan DoorDash driver in Texas → Man shot by ICE is hospitalized again while detained in Texas
The connection characterizes the renewed hospitalization while detained as following from the shooting.
The shooting Story mentions Wilber Rafael Garces Perez; this is a mention link, not a recorded Event participation link. · reporting linkAnalystICE officer shoots Venezuelan DoorDash driver in Texas → Wilber Rafael Garces Perez
Wilber Rafael Garces Perez is linked to the Story as a mention and has no supporting coded Event.
How a Situation is put together10 Stories · 4 Events · 10 membership connections · 79 graph edges
A retained time step
This edition freezes the complete served membership and analysis available through its UTC cutoff. Later repairs or identity changes do not rewrite what this edition showed.
Stories, Events, and cast
Stories are reporting clusters. Events are coded occurrences within that reporting. The cast contains 30 canonical people and organizations linked to the retained evidence.
Typed connections
Story-to-Event edges identify supporting reporting. Entity-to-Event edges identify recorded actor or target participation. Mentions and analytical roles stay visibly distinct from recorded participation.
Core, precursor, and continuation labels organize the reading. They do not by themselves establish causation. Collapsed graph groups and paginated evidence change presentation only; counts use the complete retained edition.