Significance
118 measured / 118 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 118 events
Connected Situation / Through 2026-11-04
Russia’s 2026 State Duma Election: Conduct, Results and Legitimacy
- stories
- 170
- events
- 118
- entities
- 292
- connections
- 170
Frozen through 2026-11-04 UTC · published 2026-11-05 03:30 UTC · analysis as of 2026-11-04 03:30 UTCSign in for the live Situation ↗
Narrative
As-of analysis
Situation at a glance
On September 12, Russia forced voting in occupied Zaporizhzhia, which “Russia forces voting in sham elections across occupied Zaporizhzhia” described as coercive. On September 14, Ukraine’s Security Service urged residents of occupied territories to boycott, while “Exiled Russian opposition unites to urge vote against Putin and war” described the opposition appeal. On September 15, Russia blocked overseas voters from online State Duma voting; polling stations also operated in several countries abroad. “Russia holds first parliamentary election since invading Ukraine” covered the election. On September 18, Oleg Mikhailov alleged premarked ballots in Syktyvkar, as “Russia begins parliamentary elections to consolidate Kremlin power” reported the allegation. On September 19, reports said authorities in occupied Donetsk shortened polling hours over a drone-attack threat. On September 20, Russia included occupied Ukrainian regions in the election; “Russia holds parliamentary vote in annexed Ukrainian regions” reported the vote. On September 21, the European Union rejected elections in occupied territories, while Russia’s Central Election Commission reported United Russia leading in Donetsk; “Putin’s United Russia party wins Russian parliamentary election amid fraud claims” covered the returns. On September 28, the European Union imposed sanctions on Russian individuals and entities. On September 29, the EU Council sanctioned Russian judges who barred the anti-war Yabloko party from the election.
Footnotes[31][25][61][52][24][23][62][27][22][63][37][16]Assessment
The dispute has two distinct strands: Russia’s conduct of the vote, including in occupied Ukrainian territory, and competing accounts of access, integrity and legitimacy. The European Union’s rejection and sanctions were political actions, as were the Council’s separate sanctions and later challenges by PACE and the European Parliament; none independently establishes the truth of ballot-fraud allegations. Oleg Mikhailov’s premarked-ballot allegation, an observer’s fraud warning, reports of stuffed ballots annulled in Mari El and an opposition party’s claim that police arrested an observer remain attributed accounts; Moscow separately said public observers were not removed. The Central Election Commission’s reports and regional results are official claims, while analysts’ accusations of rewritten tallies remain allegations; these contrasting accounts do not settle whether irregularities occurred or affected the result. Separate reports of drone-related disruption and the killing of an election-commission member in Kherson establish neither responsibility for those incidents nor their effect on the election.
Footnotes[37][16][13][17][14][15][41][9][8][7][19][12]Explanation originally captured 2026-11-04 · Evidence through 2026-11-04 UTC · Source edition sed_ed3e9dba3ece9cdafd91e17385fc9b72
What informs this explanation
- Complete retained Story and Event membership
- Daily reporting and coded-occurrence time steps
- Event taxonomies, metrics, units, and denominators
- Canonical Entities and recorded actor/target bindings
- Typed reporting, membership, and incident edges
- Changes against the preceding retained edition
- Permitted macro, public-record, and asset facts only when they were retained with an explicit source and observation date
Quantitative
Evidence in numbers
- Scope
A 33-day Situation represented by 118 coded Events carried across 170 member Stories.
- Coded activity
The coded activity is led by 01 · Make Public Statement (58) and 017 · Symbolic Act (9).
- Prominent subjects
United Russia, Vladimir Putin, and State Duma are prominent in the retained actor and relationship evidence.
- Entity coverage
292 canonical Entities are linked to this edition.
Metric coverage. 118 coded Events · 114 CAMEO+ · 4 conflict. The four dimensions describe the CAMEO+ subset; conflict Events do not carry these scores.
Magnitude3.2
min 1max 7
Systemic importance0.19
min 0.07max 0.45
Propagation potential0.32
min 0max 0.65
Market sensitivity0.05
min 0.05max 0.05
Dot = mean · shaded span = observed range · position uses each metric’s defined scale.
All 8 scores, distributions & definitions
How the coder scored the full retained Event set
118 coded events — 114 CAMEO+ (113 political) · 4 conflict
- Significance · 1180.26min 0.14max 0.55
- Magnitude · 1133.2min 1max 7
- Systemic · 1130.19min 0.07max 0.45
- Propagation · 1130.32min 0max 0.65
- Market · 1130.05min 0.05max 0.05
- Goldstein · 117-0.5min -9.5max 9
- Fatalities · 40min 0max 0
- Confidence · 1180.79min 0.38max 0.98
Quad class over those 117 events · Verbal Cooperation 87 · Verbal Conflict 20 · Material Conflict 9 · Material Cooperation 1. 1 sit outside POLITICAL, where Goldstein and quad class are undefined. The four CAMEO+ scores are over the 114 CAMEO+ events only; the 4 conflict events have no such column.
Magnitude
113 measured / 114 eligible · 1 missing · 4 not applicable
score (0 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 114 of 118 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Systemic
113 measured / 114 eligible · 1 missing · 4 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 114 of 118 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Propagation
113 measured / 114 eligible · 1 missing · 4 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 114 of 118 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Market
113 measured / 114 eligible · 1 missing · 4 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 114 of 118 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Goldstein
117 measured / 117 eligible · 0 missing · 1 not applicable
score (-10 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 117 of 118 events Goldstein is defined on — CAMEO+ POLITICAL and the conflict family; the other nine CAMEO+ domains have no Goldstein semantics
Fatalities
4 measured / 4 eligible · 0 missing · 114 not applicable
reported people · Reports may overlap; these are Event-level reports, not an additive unique human toll.
across the 4 of 118 events that report a toll — the conflict family only, and never 0 on a CAMEO+ event
Confidence
118 measured / 118 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 118 events
This retained edition, independent of graph and page limits. Different dimensions, not a blended risk score; reported tolls may overlap.
Day by day25 reporting days · click a day to open or close it
2026-10-12from the recordslatest
Czech State Election Commission approves municipal election results
1 Story and 1 coded Event (0 / +1 against the day before). Widest coverage: Election commission approves results of an unspecified national vote (6 articles).
- 10
- Stories · vs day before
- 1+1
- Events · vs day before
- 6
- articles
The lay of the land
Situation timeline
Threads
All 25 daysarticlesstoriesevents
09-1009-1609-2109-2509-3010-12
Loading Situation timeline…
What kind of event · 28 coded types
over 118 coded events on this edition
- Political113
- 01 · Make Public Statement58
- 017 · Symbolic Act9
- 02 · Appeal6
- 051 · Praise or Endorse6
- 111 · Criticize or Denounce6
- 112 · Accuse4
- 12 · Reject3
Countries · where it happened
Countries · who is acting
Salient structure
What holds this Situation together
Selected from the complete retained edition
Key threads
- core
AnalystVoting in occupied Ukrainian territories
The forced vote in Zaporizhzhia, inclusion of occupied regions, and early closure of polling stations in Donetsk frame the dispute over the election’s legitimacy.
- core
AnalystElection conduct, reported results and allegations
The Central Election Commission reported returns, while Oleg Mikhailov, an election observer and analysts made distinct allegations or warnings about ballot and tally irregularities.
- development
AnalystExternal responses and sanctions
The European Union rejected elections in occupied territories and imposed sanctions; the EU Council, PACE and the European Parliament took separate actions concerning officials or the new Duma’s legitimacy.
- development
AnalystPost-election Duma organization
United Russia backed Vyacheslav Volodin for speaker, Dmitry Medvedev proposed candidates for Duma posts, and the Duma elected Andrei Makarov to chair its budget committee.
- development
AnalystSecurity and observer accounts
Accounts include drone-related disruption, the reported death of a Kherson election-commission member, observer incidents and conflicting claims about observer removals; they do not establish responsibility for the security incidents or their effect on the vote.
Key actors
- UR
- VP
- SD
- CE
- EU
AnalystEuropean Union
The European Union rejected elections in occupied Ukrainian territories and imposed new sanctions on Russian individuals and entities.
Key Events
contextAnalystRussia forces voting in occupied Zaporizhzhia
On September 12, Russia forced voting in occupied Zaporizhzhia; “Russia forces voting in sham elections across occupied Zaporizhzhia” described the vote.
contextAnalystRussia blocks overseas voters from online State Duma voting
On September 15, Russia blocked overseas voters from online State Duma voting; “Russia holds first parliamentary election since invading Ukraine” reported on the election.
contextAnalystOleg Mikhailov alleges premarked ballots in Syktyvkar
On September 18, Oleg Mikhailov alleged premarked ballots in Syktyvkar; “Russia begins parliamentary elections to consolidate Kremlin power” reported the allegation.
contextAnalystRussian police use force against Yabloko election observer
The event dates Russian police use of force against a Yabloko election observer to September 19; “Russian election observer warns of record election fraud” reported an observer’s warning.
contextAnalystRussia includes occupied Ukrainian regions in parliamentary elections
On September 20, Russia included occupied Ukrainian regions in the parliamentary election; “Putin’s United Russia party wins Russian parliamentary election amid fraud claims” covered the election.
Notable connections
Evidenced relationships involving significant participants beyond the central cast.
United Russia backed Vyacheslav Volodin for State Duma speaker. · recorded participationAnalystUnited Russia → Vyacheslav Volodin
The event identifies United Russia as the actor and Volodin as the endorsement target.
Dmitry Medvedev proposed candidates for State Duma posts. · recorded participationAnalystDmitry Medvedev → State Duma
The event identifies Medvedev as actor and the State Duma as the proposal’s target.
The European Union rejected elections in occupied Ukrainian territories. · recorded participationAnalystEuropean Union → European Union rejects elections in occupied Ukrainian territories
The event identifies the European Union as the actor making the rejection.
The Central Election Commission reported United Russia leading in Donetsk. · recorded participationAnalystCentral Election Commission (Russia) → Russia’s election commission reports United Russia leads in Donetsk
The event identifies the commission as the actor making the statement.
Kassym-Jomart Tokayev discussed bilateral cooperation with Vladimir Putin by phone, separate from the election-conduct争. · recorded participationAnalystKassym-Jomart Tokayev → Vladimir Putin
The event identifies Tokayev as actor and Putin as the target of the telephone discussion; it does not establish a connection to the election-conduct dispute.
How a Situation is put together170 Stories · 118 Events · 170 membership connections · 1,375 graph edges
A retained time step
This edition freezes the complete served membership and analysis available through its UTC cutoff. Later repairs or identity changes do not rewrite what this edition showed.
Stories, Events, and cast
Stories are reporting clusters. Events are coded occurrences within that reporting. The cast contains 292 canonical people and organizations linked to the retained evidence.
Typed connections
Story-to-Event edges identify supporting reporting. Entity-to-Event edges identify recorded actor or target participation. Mentions and analytical roles stay visibly distinct from recorded participation.
Core, precursor, and continuation labels organize the reading. They do not by themselves establish causation. Collapsed graph groups and paginated evidence change presentation only; counts use the complete retained edition.