Significance
322 measured / 322 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 322 events
Connected Situation / Through 2026-10-26
Ceuta Migration Crisis: Border Control, Reception and Scrutiny
- stories
- 669
- events
- 322
- entities
- 1,035
- connections
- 669
Evidence so far on 2026-10-26 UTC · updated 2026-10-26 02:22 UTC · analysis as of 2026-10-26 00:28 UTCSign in for the live Situation ↗
Narrative
As-of analysis
Situation at a glance
On 31 August, Spanish police dispersed migrants after a mass entry into Ceuta, while Pedro Sánchez said he ruled out a Moroccan role in the influx; the headlines were “Spanish police disperse migrants after mass entry into Ceuta” and “Pedro Sanchez rules out Moroccan role in Ceuta migrant influx.” On 2 September, Spanish National Police dispersed migrants gathered outside the Loma Colmenar reception settlement, in “Spanish National Police disperse migrants at Ceuta reception site.” Spain’s Council of Ministers approved a €309 million aid package for Ceuta on 5 September, and the Spanish Ministry of Transport took control of a port area to house migrants on 6 September. Judge María Tardón opened an investigation into the mass entry on 7 September; on 13 September, the Spanish Government moved nearly 1,000 migrants into Ceuta shelters. On 22 September, the Government of Spain reported voluntary returns of Moroccan migrants, including 1,309 in the preceding week, and announced a voluntary-return figure or measure involving 6,791; José Manuel Albares said Morocco was helping prevent another crossing, and the Spanish government planned more migrant spaces. On 23 September, the Ceuta government transferred 54 migrant minors to mainland Spain for family reunification. Pedro Sánchez criticized Morocco over failed border controls and also said a Moroccan deployment had prevented another assault.
Footnotes[1][2][3][4][5][7][11][12]Assessment
The dated actions show border policing alongside reception and accommodation measures, financial assistance, returns and transfers of minors; the 22 September additional-space measure was planned, not completed. Spanish statements on Morocco were not simply uniform: Sánchez ruled out a Moroccan role on 31 August and criticized Morocco over border controls on 23 September, while Albares said on 22 September that Morocco was helping prevent another crossing. On 24 September, Sánchez was reported to say Spain’s position on migration cooperation with Morocco had not changed, amid coverage of a softer tone. Tardón’s investigations on 7 and 19 September establish judicial scrutiny, not findings of responsibility. The events and public statements establish what officials and other actors did or said; they do not settle responsibility for the mass entry or resolve the allegations under investigation.
Footnotes[1][3][4][5][7][9][11][12]Explanation originally captured 2026-10-26 · Evidence through 2026-10-26 UTC · Source edition sed_551df759444f99022dd1876f74fb2bbe
What informs this explanation
- Complete retained Story and Event membership
- Daily reporting and coded-occurrence time steps
- Event taxonomies, metrics, units, and denominators
- Canonical Entities and recorded actor/target bindings
- Typed reporting, membership, and incident edges
- Changes against the preceding retained edition
- Permitted macro, public-record, and asset facts only when they were retained with an explicit source and observation date
Quantitative
Evidence in numbers
- Scope
A 64-day Situation represented by 322 coded Events carried across 669 member Stories.
- Coded activity
The coded activity is led by 01 · Make Public Statement (39) and 111 · Criticize or Denounce (34).
- Prominent subjects
Pedro Sánchez, European Union, and People's Party (Spain) are prominent in the retained actor and relationship evidence.
- Entity coverage
1,035 canonical Entities are linked to this edition.
Metric coverage. 322 coded Events · 286 CAMEO+ · 36 conflict. The four dimensions describe the CAMEO+ subset; conflict Events do not carry these scores.
Magnitude3.4
min 1max 8
Systemic importance0.17
min 0.03max 0.57
Propagation potential0.33
min 0max 0.64
Market sensitivity0.06
min 0.05max 0.5
Dot = mean · shaded span = observed range · position uses each metric’s defined scale.
All 8 scores, distributions & definitions
How the coder scored the full retained Event set
322 coded events — 286 CAMEO+ (248 political) · 36 conflict
- Significance · 3220.29min 0.1max 0.56
- Magnitude · 2863.4min 1max 8
- Systemic · 2860.17min 0.03max 0.57
- Propagation · 2860.33min 0max 0.64
- Market · 2860.06min 0.05max 0.5
- Goldstein · 284-1.6min -9.5max 7.4
- Fatalities · 360min 0max 0
- Confidence · 3220.83min 0.28max 0.98
Quad class over those 284 events · Verbal Conflict 143 · Verbal Cooperation 108 · Material Conflict 24 · Material Cooperation 9. 38 sit outside POLITICAL, where Goldstein and quad class are undefined. The four CAMEO+ scores are over the 286 CAMEO+ events only; the 36 conflict events have no such column.
Magnitude
286 measured / 286 eligible · 0 missing · 36 not applicable
score (0 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 286 of 322 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Systemic
286 measured / 286 eligible · 0 missing · 36 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 286 of 322 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Propagation
286 measured / 286 eligible · 0 missing · 36 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 286 of 322 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Market
286 measured / 286 eligible · 0 missing · 36 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 286 of 322 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Goldstein
284 measured / 284 eligible · 0 missing · 38 not applicable
score (-10 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 284 of 322 events Goldstein is defined on — CAMEO+ POLITICAL and the conflict family; the other nine CAMEO+ domains have no Goldstein semantics
Fatalities
36 measured / 36 eligible · 0 missing · 286 not applicable
reported people · Reports may overlap; these are Event-level reports, not an additive unique human toll.
across the 36 of 322 events that report a toll — the conflict family only, and never 0 on a CAMEO+ event
Confidence
322 measured / 322 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 322 events
This retained edition, independent of graph and page limits. Different dimensions, not a blended risk score; reported tolls may overlap.
Day by day64 reporting days · click a day to open or close it
2026-10-26from the recordslatest
30,000 people protest in Madrid over Ceuta crisis and demand solutions
1 Story and 0 coded Events (-2 / -1 against the day before). Widest coverage: 30,000 people protest in Madrid over Ceuta crisis and demand solutions (1 articles).
- 1-2
- Stories · vs day before
- 0-1
- Events · vs day before
- 1
- articles
The lay of the land
Situation timeline
All 64 daysarticlesstoriesevents
08-2409-0609-1810-0110-1310-26
Loading Situation timeline…
What kind of event · 85 coded types
over 322 coded events on this edition
- Political248
- 01 · Make Public Statement39
- 111 · Criticize or Denounce34
- 112 · Accuse13
- 0242 · Policy Change8
- 10 · Demand7
- 1042 · Policy Change7
- 12 · Reject7
Countries · where it happened
Countries · who is acting
Salient structure
What holds this Situation together
Selected from the complete retained edition
Key threads
Key actors
- PS
RulePedro Sánchez
Recorded as actor and target in 29 coded Events, including Feijóo demands Sánchez resign over Ceuta crisis.
Recorded as actor and target in 29 coded Events, including Feijóo demands Sánchez resign over Ceuta crisis.
Footnotes[?][?][?][?][?] - EU
RuleEuropean Union
Recorded as target and actor in 11 coded Events, including Spain asks EU to toughen border controls with Morocco.
Recorded as target and actor in 11 coded Events, including Spain asks EU to toughen border controls with Morocco.
Footnotes[?][?][?][?][?] - PP
RulePeople's Party (Spain)
Recorded as actor in 3 coded Events, including Partido Popular backs Senate demands for Ceuta security.
Recorded as actor in 3 coded Events, including Partido Popular backs Senate demands for Ceuta security.
Footnotes[?][?][?] - FG
RuleFernando Grande-Marlaska
Recorded as target and actor in 9 coded Events, including Spain reinforces Ceuta and Melilla borders with more agents.
Recorded as target and actor in 9 coded Events, including Spain reinforces Ceuta and Melilla borders with more agents.
Footnotes[?][?][?][?][?] - GO
RuleGovernment of Spain
Recorded as target and actor in 32 coded Events, including Vox vows to obstruct Spain's transfer of Ceuta minors.
Recorded as target and actor in 32 coded Events, including Vox vows to obstruct Spain's transfer of Ceuta minors.
Footnotes[?][?][?][?][?]
Key Events
RuleMoroccan authorities reinforce forces at Ceuta border
2026-09-22 · POLITICAL
2026-09-22 · POLITICAL
RuleSpain reinforces Ceuta and Melilla borders with more agents
2026-09-21 · POLITICAL
2026-09-21 · POLITICAL
RuleSpanish Army deploys Melilla troops to reinforce Ceuta
2026-09-19 · POLITICAL
2026-09-19 · POLITICAL
RuleSpain requests EU emergency funds for migrant crisis in Ceuta
2026-08-25 · POLITICAL
2026-08-25 · POLITICAL
RuleSpain's National Court halts migrant camp installation in Ceuta
2026-09-16 · POLITICAL
2026-09-16 · POLITICAL
Additional recorded participants
Non-central actors and targets retained from coded Events. A later analysis may identify an evidenced relationship as notable.
- 🇪🇸
recorded participationRuleSpain
Recorded as target and actor across 17 coded Events, including Italy extends Schengen suspension with Spain.
Recorded as target and actor across 17 coded Events, including Italy extends Schengen suspension with Spain.
Footnotes[?][?][?][?][?] - AF
recorded participationRuleAlberto Núñez Feijóo
Recorded as actor and target across 15 coded Events, including Feijóo demands Sánchez resign over Ceuta crisis.
Recorded as actor and target across 15 coded Events, including Feijóo demands Sánchez resign over Ceuta crisis.
Footnotes[?][?][?][?][?] - EP
recorded participationRuleEuropean Parliament
Recorded as actor and target across 10 coded Events, including Spain's PSOE rejects European Parliament text on Ceuta.
Recorded as actor and target across 10 coded Events, including Spain's PSOE rejects European Parliament text on Ceuta.
Footnotes[?][?][?][?][?] - V(
recorded participationRuleVox (political party)
Recorded as actor and target across 9 coded Events, including Vox vows to obstruct Spain's transfer of Ceuta minors.
Recorded as actor and target across 9 coded Events, including Vox vows to obstruct Spain's transfer of Ceuta minors.
Footnotes[?][?][?][?][?] - MR
recorded participationRuleMargarita Robles
Recorded as actor and target across 6 coded Events, including Jaume Asens urges Robles to remove troops from Ceuta streets.
Recorded as actor and target across 6 coded Events, including Jaume Asens urges Robles to remove troops from Ceuta streets.
Footnotes[?][?][?][?][?]
How a Situation is put together669 Stories · 322 Events · 669 membership connections · 7,413 graph edges
A retained time step
This edition freezes the complete served membership and analysis available through its UTC cutoff. Later repairs or identity changes do not rewrite what this edition showed.
Stories, Events, and cast
Stories are reporting clusters. Events are coded occurrences within that reporting. The cast contains 1,035 canonical people and organizations linked to the retained evidence.
Typed connections
Story-to-Event edges identify supporting reporting. Entity-to-Event edges identify recorded actor or target participation. Mentions and analytical roles stay visibly distinct from recorded participation.
Core, precursor, and continuation labels organize the reading. They do not by themselves establish causation. Collapsed graph groups and paginated evidence change presentation only; counts use the complete retained edition.