Significance
61 measured / 61 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 61 events
Connected Situation / Through 2026-10-24
Ebola Outbreak and Cross-Border Response
- stories
- 165
- events
- 61
- entities
- 280
- connections
- 165
Evidence so far on 2026-10-24 UTC · updated 2026-10-24 18:24 UTC · analysis as of 2026-10-24 09:28 UTCSign in for the live Situation ↗
Narrative
As-of analysis
Situation at a glance
Kenya’s first Ebola case was reported on 6 October; 7 October coverage included “Kenya confirms first Ebola case after man dies despite treatment.” On 7 October, Mary Muthoni directed enhanced screening at Nairobi airport. Africa CDC said the patient had traveled through the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda. An Event dates Kenya’s Ministry of Health’s confirmation of a second case to 13 October, while news reports of that confirmation were published on 14 and 15 October. In the DRC, Jean-Jacques Mbungani Mbanda reported two cases in Nord-Ubangi on 14 October, and the World Bank announced $93 million for the Ebola response in the DRC and region; “Ebola spreads to DR Congo’s eighth province as cases exceed 9,400” reported North Ubangi spread on 18 October. Kenya later confirmed a ninth case and quarantined a close contact in an Event dated 20 October; a news report on the ninth case was published on 21 October. Nigeria’s federal government activated a response after confirming an imported case, while Africa CDC investigated a possible exposure involving the Nigerian and Kenyan patients at Entebbe airport and urged African leaders to cooperate.
Footnotes[24][27][22][34][26][43][19][30][12][36][29][35]Assessment
The accounts describe a large DRC outbreak alongside reported cases and control measures in Kenya and Nigeria, but they do not establish one transmission chain linking every country. “First Ebola patients in Nigeria and Kenya may have crossed paths at Uganda airport” describes a possible encounter under investigation, while “WHO warns Ebola outbreak is growing more complex as Nigeria confirms first case” includes the claim that Nigeria’s case remained isolated. Kenya’s reports of no new cases and contacts in quarantine sit alongside later case confirmations; the accounts do not reconcile those different dates and snapshots. The DRC headlines reporting more than 9,000 and then more than 9,400 cases are dated reports, not a single reconciled total across the outbreak. Regional appeals, screening, quarantine, funding and medical aid document distinct actions; they do not establish that those actions stopped transmission.
Footnotes[2][35][1][21][34][16][36][20][12][39][32][43]Explanation originally captured 2026-10-24 · Evidence through 2026-10-24 UTC · Source edition sed_51e56182f1fc994b51b2a358345cc200
What informs this explanation
- Complete retained Story and Event membership
- Daily reporting and coded-occurrence time steps
- Event taxonomies, metrics, units, and denominators
- Canonical Entities and recorded actor/target bindings
- Typed reporting, membership, and incident edges
- Changes against the preceding retained edition
- Permitted macro, public-record, and asset facts only when they were retained with an explicit source and observation date
Quantitative
Evidence in numbers
- Scope
A 20-day Situation represented by 61 coded Events carried across 165 member Stories.
- Coded activity
The coded activity is led by HE04 · Public Health Policy Action (29) and HE01 · Disease Outbreak (18).
- Prominent subjects
Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, Aden Duale, and Nigeria Centre for Disease Control are prominent in the retained actor and relationship evidence.
- Entity coverage
280 canonical Entities are linked to this edition.
Metric coverage. 61 coded Events · 61 CAMEO+ · 0 conflict. The four dimensions describe the CAMEO+ subset; conflict Events do not carry these scores.
Magnitude2.2
min 1max 5
Systemic importance0.2
min 0.07max 0.5
Propagation potential0.29
min 0max 0.54
Market sensitivity0.07
min 0.05max 0.5
Dot = mean · shaded span = observed range · position uses each metric’s defined scale.
All 7 scores, distributions & definitions
How the coder scored the full retained Event set
61 coded events — 61 CAMEO+ (11 political)
- Significance · 610.25min 0.16max 0.38
- Magnitude · 612.2min 1max 5
- Systemic · 610.2min 0.07max 0.5
- Propagation · 610.29min 0max 0.54
- Market · 610.07min 0.05max 0.5
- Goldstein · 111.3min -5max 7.4
- Confidence · 610.71min 0.27max 0.98
Quad class over those 11 events · Verbal Cooperation 6 · Verbal Conflict 3 · Material Cooperation 2. No conflict-family event here, so nothing carries a fatality count — a missing column, not a toll of zero. 50 sit outside POLITICAL, where Goldstein and quad class are undefined.
Magnitude
61 measured / 61 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 61 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Systemic
61 measured / 61 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 61 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Propagation
61 measured / 61 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 61 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Market
61 measured / 61 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 61 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Goldstein
11 measured / 11 eligible · 0 missing · 50 not applicable
score (-10 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 11 of 61 events Goldstein is defined on — CAMEO+ POLITICAL and the conflict family; the other nine CAMEO+ domains have no Goldstein semantics
Confidence
61 measured / 61 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 61 events
This retained edition, independent of graph and page limits. Different dimensions, not a blended risk score; reported tolls may overlap.
Day by day20 reporting days · click a day to open or close it
2026-10-24from the recordslatest
Kenya Ministry of Health accounts for 135 Ebola contacts
14 Stories and 4 coded Events (-10 / -2 against the day before). Widest coverage: Kenya reports second Ebola death, a close relative of the first patient (25 articles). Recorded acting: Government of Bayelsa State.
- 14-10
- Stories · vs day before
- 4-2
- Events · vs day before
- 80
- articles
The lay of the land
Situation timeline
Threads
All 20 daysarticlesstoriesevents
10-0510-0910-1310-1610-2010-24
Loading Situation timeline…
What kind of event · 11 coded types
over 61 coded events on this edition
- Health50
- HE04 · Public Health Policy Action29
- HE01 · Disease Outbreak18
- HE03 · Vaccine or Treatment Milestone3
- Political11
- 01 · Make Public Statement2
- 073 · Provide Humanitarian Aid2
- 1042 · Policy Change2
- 022 · Appeal for Diplomatic Cooperation1
Countries · where it happened
Countries · who is acting
Salient structure
What holds this Situation together
Selected from the complete retained edition
Key threads
- core
- core
AnalystKenya case reports and control measures
These Stories report the fatal first case, subsequent confirmations, and Kenyan screening and control measures.
- development
AnalystNigeria and regional response, aid and coordination
These Stories cover Nigeria’s vigilance and confirmed case, regional coordination, and support for response activity.
Key actors
- AC
AnalystAfrica Centres for Disease Control and Prevention
Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention investigated a possible exposure at Entebbe airport and urged African leaders to cooperate on the response.
- AD
- NC
- WB
Key Events
contextAnalystMary Muthoni directs enhanced Ebola screening at Nairobi airport
On 7 October, Mary Muthoni directed enhanced Ebola screening at Nairobi airport.
On 7 October, Mary Muthoni directed enhanced Ebola screening at Nairobi airport.
Footnotes[27]
contextAnalystKenya Ministry of Health confirms second Ebola case
The Event dated 13 October says Kenya’s Ministry of Health confirmed a second Ebola case.
The Event dated 13 October says Kenya’s Ministry of Health confirmed a second Ebola case.
Footnotes[34]contextAnalystJean-Jacques Mbungani Mbanda reports two Ebola cases in Nord-Ubangi
On 14 October, Jean-Jacques Mbungani Mbanda reported two Ebola cases in Nord-Ubangi.
On 14 October, Jean-Jacques Mbungani Mbanda reported two Ebola cases in Nord-Ubangi.
Footnotes[26]
contextAnalystWorld Bank adds $93 million for Ebola response in DRC
On 14 October, the World Bank announced $93 million for the DRC Ebola response.
On 14 October, the World Bank announced $93 million for the DRC Ebola response.
Footnotes[43]
contextAnalystCongo's public health institute confirms Ebola spread to North Ubangi
On 18 October, Congo’s public health institute confirmed Ebola spread to North Ubangi.
On 18 October, Congo’s public health institute confirmed Ebola spread to North Ubangi.
Footnotes[30]
Notable connections
Evidenced relationships involving significant participants beyond the central cast.
Nigeria Centre for Disease Control heightened Ebola vigilance. · recorded participationAnalystNigeria Centre for Disease Control → Nigeria's NCDC heightens Ebola vigilance after Kenya case
Nigeria Centre for Disease Control is named as the Event’s actor.
Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention investigated possible exposure at Entebbe airport. · recorded participationAnalystAfrica Centres for Disease Control and Prevention → Africa CDC investigates possible Ebola exposure at Entebbe airport
Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention is named as the Event’s actor.
How a Situation is put together165 Stories · 61 Events · 165 membership connections · 1,357 graph edges
A retained time step
This edition freezes the complete served membership and analysis available through its UTC cutoff. Later repairs or identity changes do not rewrite what this edition showed.
Stories, Events, and cast
Stories are reporting clusters. Events are coded occurrences within that reporting. The cast contains 280 canonical people and organizations linked to the retained evidence.
Typed connections
Story-to-Event edges identify supporting reporting. Entity-to-Event edges identify recorded actor or target participation. Mentions and analytical roles stay visibly distinct from recorded participation.
Core, precursor, and continuation labels organize the reading. They do not by themselves establish causation. Collapsed graph groups and paginated evidence change presentation only; counts use the complete retained edition.