Significance
21 measured / 21 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 21 events
Connected Situation / Through 2026-11-07
Austin ICE Shooting, Custody and Proceedings
- stories
- 57
- events
- 21
- entities
- 152
- connections
- 57
Evidence so far on 2026-11-07 UTC · updated 2026-11-07 05:30 UTC · analysis as of 2026-11-07 04:30 UTCSign in for the live Situation ↗
Narrative
As-of analysis
Situation at a glance
On September 20, ICE agents shot and wounded Wilber Rafael Garcés Pérez in Austin; “ICE agent shoots and wounds man in Austin, Texas” reported the incident the next day. On September 22, ICE returned Garcés Pérez to detention in Pearsall, and a federal judge blocked his deportation. Federal prosecutors charged Garcés Pérez with assaulting a federal officer on September 29, and Judge Dustin Howell denied his release on October 1. “Texas ICE shooting: Venezuelan detainee told he needs surgery to remove bullet” was reported September 24; “Venezuelan man shot by ICE in Texas undergoes surgery to remove bullet” was reported October 3.
Footnotes[23][22][27][17][24][19][25][10][42][8][16][7]Assessment
The deportation block did not release Garcés Pérez: ICE returned him to detention on September 22, and Howell later denied his release. The federal assault charge is an allegation, and Garcés Pérez’s not-guilty plea is not a finding of guilt. The two indictment Events do not establish two indictments; Alexander Garcia Vargas’s guilty plea concerns a separate case. The surgery headlines and the October 15 immigration-court headline do not establish that every differently described person or medical status is the same, and the hearing Event does not identify the person in that headline as its subject. The Pearsall rally is linked by its headline to a man shot by ICE, but its Event and headline differ on what protesters demanded. The Texas vehicle-strike story reports a separate allegation about the Austin ICE shooting: a Texas district attorney said an ICE officer intentionally struck an immigrant with a vehicle. No linked Event is supplied for that story.
Footnotes[24][27][42][25][39][32][33][40][2][35][5][28]Explanation originally captured 2026-11-07 · Evidence through 2026-11-07 UTC · Source edition sed_e36f3b4f12e70108abc298a2faa74859
What informs this explanation
- Complete retained Story and Event membership
- Daily reporting and coded-occurrence time steps
- Event taxonomies, metrics, units, and denominators
- Canonical Entities and recorded actor/target bindings
- Typed reporting, membership, and incident edges
- Changes against the preceding retained edition
- Permitted macro, public-record, and asset facts only when they were retained with an explicit source and observation date
Quantitative
Evidence in numbers
- Scope
A 47-day Situation represented by 21 coded Events carried across 57 member Stories.
- Coded activity
The coded activity is led by CR08 · Arrest Charge Conviction or Sentencing (8) and PEACEFUL PROTEST (5).
- Prominent subjects
United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Texas Department of Public Safety are prominent in the retained actor and relationship evidence.
- Entity coverage
152 canonical Entities are linked to this edition.
Metric coverage. 21 coded Events · 13 CAMEO+ · 8 conflict. The four dimensions describe the CAMEO+ subset; conflict Events do not carry these scores.
Magnitude1.9
min 1max 5
Systemic importance0.1
min 0.08max 0.12
Propagation potential0.18
min 0max 0.3
Market sensitivity0.08
min 0.05max 0.15
Dot = mean · shaded span = observed range · position uses each metric’s defined scale.
All 8 scores, distributions & definitions
How the coder scored the full retained Event set
21 coded events — 13 CAMEO+ (2 political) · 8 conflict
- Significance · 210.23min 0.17max 0.41
- Magnitude · 131.9min 1max 5
- Systemic · 130.1min 0.08max 0.12
- Propagation · 130.18min 0max 0.3
- Market · 130.08min 0.05max 0.15
- Goldstein · 10-5.7min -9max 1
- Fatalities · 80min 0max 0
- Confidence · 210.8min 0.28max 0.98
Quad class over those 10 events · Verbal Conflict 6 · Material Conflict 3 · Verbal Cooperation 1. 11 sit outside POLITICAL, where Goldstein and quad class are undefined. The four CAMEO+ scores are over the 13 CAMEO+ events only; the 8 conflict events have no such column.
Magnitude
13 measured / 13 eligible · 0 missing · 8 not applicable
score (0 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 13 of 21 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Systemic
13 measured / 13 eligible · 0 missing · 8 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 13 of 21 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Propagation
13 measured / 13 eligible · 0 missing · 8 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 13 of 21 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Market
13 measured / 13 eligible · 0 missing · 8 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 13 of 21 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Goldstein
10 measured / 10 eligible · 0 missing · 11 not applicable
score (-10 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 10 of 21 events Goldstein is defined on — CAMEO+ POLITICAL and the conflict family; the other nine CAMEO+ domains have no Goldstein semantics
Fatalities
8 measured / 8 eligible · 0 missing · 13 not applicable
reported people · Reports may overlap; these are Event-level reports, not an additive unique human toll.
across the 8 of 21 events that report a toll — the conflict family only, and never 0 on a CAMEO+ event
Confidence
21 measured / 21 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 21 events
This retained edition, independent of graph and page limits. Different dimensions, not a blended risk score; reported tolls may overlap.
Day by day29 reporting days · click a day to open or close it
2026-11-05from the recordslatest
Assault charge dropped against U.S. citizen allegedly shot by ICE
1 Story and 0 coded Events (0 / 0 against the day before). Widest coverage: Assault charge dropped against U.S. citizen allegedly shot by ICE (1 articles).
- 10
- Stories · vs day before
- 00
- Events · vs day before
- 1
- articles
The lay of the land
Situation timeline
Threads
All 29 daysarticlesstoriesevents
09-2009-2610-0110-1210-2311-05
Loading Situation timeline…
What kind of event · 10 coded types
over 21 coded events on this edition
- Crime10
- CR08 · Arrest Charge Conviction or Sentencing8
- CR01 · Homicide or Violent Crime1
- CR09 · Prison Jailbreak or Custody Incident1
- Conflict6
- PEACEFUL PROTEST5
- PROTEST WITH INTERVENTION1
- Political2
- 04 · Consult1
- 12 · Reject1
Countries · where it happened
Countries · who is acting
Salient structure
What holds this Situation together
Selected from the complete retained edition
Key threads
- core
AnalystGarcés Pérez shooting, custody, medical care and proceedings
These Stories and Events cover the Austin shooting, Garcés Pérez’s custody and medical care, and the federal proceedings. The September 24 Event title does not establish a second shooting.
- development
AnalystTexas demonstrations involving ICE
Events and linked Stories describe demonstrations in Austin, Pflugerville, San Antonio, Pearsall and Houston. The Pearsall Event says protesters demanded Wilber Perez’s release, while its linked headline says they demanded surgery.
- development
- unresolved
AnalystOctober 15 hearing and linked immigration-court headline
The Event describes a U.S. House hearing on ICE use of force; the linked headline does not establish that the immigration-court subject was the hearing’s subject.
- development
AnalystSeparate ICE-related cases
Teresa Ochoa’s deportation and Alexander Garcia Vargas’s guilty plea are separate matters, not identified as part of Garcés Pérez’s case.
Key actors
- US
AnalystUnited States Immigration and Customs Enforcement
United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is named as actor in the Austin shooting, Garcés Pérez’s return to detention and a separate move of a Venezuelan migrant to criminal detention; ICE is named as target of the deportation block and House hearing.
- TD
Key Events
contextAnalystICE agents shoot and wound Venezuelan courier in Austin
The Event dates ICE agents’ shooting and wounding of Wilber Rafael Garcés Pérez in Austin to September 20; “ICE agent shoots and wounds man in Austin, Texas” reports the incident.
contextAnalystICE returns Wilber Rafael Garces Perez to detention in Texas
On September 22, ICE returned Garcés Pérez to detention at the South Texas ICE Processing Center in Pearsall.
contextAnalystFederal judge blocks deportation of Venezuelan man in Austin case
On September 22, a federal judge blocked deportation in the Austin case; the Event names ICE as its target.
Notable connections
Evidenced relationships involving significant participants beyond the central cast.
ICE is named as actor in the shooting of Wilber Rafael Garcés Pérez. · recorded participationAnalystUnited States Immigration and Customs Enforcement → ICE agents shoot and wound Venezuelan courier in Austin
The Event names ICE as source actor and Garcés Pérez as target.
ICE is named as actor in Garcés Pérez’s return to detention. · recorded participationAnalystUnited States Immigration and Customs Enforcement → ICE returns Wilber Rafael Garces Perez to detention in Texas
The Event names ICE as source actor and Garcés Pérez as target.
The deportation-block Event names ICE as its target. · recorded participationAnalystFederal judge blocks deportation of Venezuelan man in Austin case → United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement
The Event names a federal judge as source actor and ICE as target.
The Texas Department of Public Safety is named as actor in Misael Ramos’s arrest. · recorded participationAnalystTexas Department of Public Safety → Texas troopers arrest Austin council candidate Misael Ramos
The Event names the Department as source actor and Ramos as target.
The U.S. House hearing Event names ICE as its target. · recorded participationAnalystU.S. lawmakers hold Austin hearing on ICE use of force → United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement
The Event names the U.S. House of Representatives as source actor and ICE as target.
All analytical threads · 6
These Stories and Events cover the Austin shooting, Garcés Pérez’s custody and medical care, and the federal proceedings. The September 24 Event title does not establish a second shooting.
Footnotes[23][36][27][24][25][42][32][33][39][22][17][16]Events and linked Stories describe demonstrations in Austin, Pflugerville, San Antonio, Pearsall and Houston. The Pearsall Event says protesters demanded Wilber Perez’s release, while its linked headline says they demanded surgery.
Footnotes[29][26][30][28][31][34][20][18][15][13][12][11]The Texas Department of Public Safety is named as actor in the arrest of Austin council candidate Misael Ramos.
Footnotes[38][14]The Event describes a U.S. House hearing on ICE use of force; the linked headline does not establish that the immigration-court subject was the hearing’s subject.
Footnotes[35][5]Teresa Ochoa’s deportation and Alexander Garcia Vargas’s guilty plea are separate matters, not identified as part of Garcés Pérez’s case.
Footnotes[37][21][40][2]“Texas DA says ICE officer intentionally struck immigrant with vehicle” reports an allegation; no linked Event is supplied.
Footnotes[6]How a Situation is put together57 Stories · 21 Events · 57 membership connections · 543 graph edges
A retained time step
This edition freezes the complete served membership and analysis available through its UTC cutoff. Later repairs or identity changes do not rewrite what this edition showed.
Stories, Events, and cast
Stories are reporting clusters. Events are coded occurrences within that reporting. The cast contains 152 canonical people and organizations linked to the retained evidence.
Typed connections
Story-to-Event edges identify supporting reporting. Entity-to-Event edges identify recorded actor or target participation. Mentions and analytical roles stay visibly distinct from recorded participation.
Core, precursor, and continuation labels organize the reading. They do not by themselves establish causation. Collapsed graph groups and paginated evidence change presentation only; counts use the complete retained edition.