SituationIraq +3

Iraq’s Coalition Drawdown and Security Transition

Developing · Day 35Updated Nov 15, 05:22 UTC95 connections
Stories
95
Events
34
Entities
173
Countries
4
BLUFLiveUpdated Nov 15, 05:22 UTCDay 35
Evidence so far on 2026-11-15 UTC · updated 2026-11-15 05:22 UTC · analysis as of 2026-11-14 08:34 UTCSign in for the live Situation ↗
Narrative

As-of analysis

Carried forward
Situation at a glance

Iraq announced closure of International Coalition headquarters on September 25; the next day, “Iraq to close US-led coalition headquarters by September 30, ending foreign bases” and “Iraq says no foreign military bases will remain after September 30” reported the deadline and Iraq’s position. On September 29, U.S. troops withdrew from a Baghdad base, while Italy completed its withdrawal from Iraq; “US troops complete withdrawal from Baghdad base after two decades” reported the U.S. milestone. On September 30, the United States marked a mission-and-withdrawal milestone at Erbil, the Netherlands ended its contribution to Operation Inherent Resolve, and Iraq marked the coalition mission’s end; “US forces complete withdrawal from Iraq after 23 years” and “US-led coalition ends its mission in Iraq” describe distinct parts of that transition. On October 1, Germany withdrew its last troops, while Kataib Hezbollah announced a suspension of military activities and Iraqi officials described disarmament deadlines; “Germany withdraws its last troops from Iraq after 11-year presence,” “Kataib Hezbollah halts military operations in Iraq, except attacks on violating aircraft,” and “Iraq sets June 2027 deadline to disarm all armed groups” document those separate developments. Iraq later said no U.S. troops, including advisers, remained and set a deadline for armed factions to disarm.

Footnotes[38][18][19][26][21][17][22][24][36][14][16][25]
Assessment

The transition comprises distinct facility, troop, and mission milestones: “US forces complete withdrawal from Iraq after 23 years” and “US concludes military mission in Iraq after decade-long fight against ISIS” use different descriptions, while separate Events date the Baghdad-base withdrawal to September 29 and the Erbil milestone to September 30. Iraq’s weapons-control effort is a separate policy track: reported pledges, Kataib Hezbollah’s suspension announcement, stated deadlines, and later Sinjar accounts do not establish that armed factions broadly disarmed. The Sinjar accounts describe integration of Sinjar Protection Units, a plan concerning YBS, a separate Event saying YBŞ placed its weapons under Iraqi state control, and later accounts of fighter absorption and objections. They do not establish settled legal or operational arrangements. Baghdad’s statement that Sinjar security falls under federal authority names the Kurdistan Regional Government as its target, but does not establish settled arrangements. The October 11 Iraqi Air Force strike on an ISIS hideout in Diyala is a separate action; its date and the subsequent “Iraq steps up airstrikes against ISIS remnants after US withdrawal” headline do not establish that the coalition withdrawal caused increased ISIS activity. No before-and-after change claims are established here.

Footnotes[14][15][26][22][13][11][9][10][29][31][37][32]

Explanation originally captured 2026-11-14 · Evidence through 2026-11-15 UTC · Source edition sed_6827f5d81a8f720f0fc378d3c55792a5

What informs this explanation
  • Complete retained Story and Event membership
  • Daily reporting and coded-occurrence time steps
  • Event taxonomies, metrics, units, and denominators
  • Canonical Entities and recorded actor/target bindings
  • Typed reporting, membership, and incident edges
  • Changes against the preceding retained edition
  • Permitted macro, public-record, and asset facts only when they were retained with an explicit source and observation date
Quantitative

Evidence in numbers

This retained edition
  • Scope

    A 35-day Situation represented by 34 coded Events carried across 95 member Stories.

  • Coded activity

    The coded activity is led by 01 · Make Public Statement (8) and 0874 · Retreat/surrender (5).

  • Prominent subjects

    Donald Trump, Fouad Hussein, and Government of the Kurdistan Region are prominent in the retained actor and relationship evidence.

  • Entity coverage

    173 canonical Entities are linked to this edition.

Metric coverage. 34 coded Events · 31 CAMEO+ · 3 conflict. The four dimensions describe the CAMEO+ subset; conflict Events do not carry these scores.

Magnitude2.9
min 1max 7
31 measured
Systemic importance0.14
min 0.08max 0.25
31 measured
Propagation potential0.29
min 0.25max 0.35
31 measured
Market sensitivity0.05
min 0.05max 0.05
31 measured

Dot = mean · shaded span = observed range · position uses each metric’s defined scale.

All 8 scores, distributions & definitions

How the coder scored the full retained Event set

34 coded events — 31 CAMEO+ (31 political) · 3 conflict

  • Significance · 340.3
    min 0.14max 0.49
  • Magnitude · 312.9
    min 1max 7
  • Systemic · 310.14
    min 0.08max 0.25
  • Propagation · 310.29
    min 0.25max 0.35
  • Market · 310.05
    min 0.05max 0.05
  • Goldstein · 341
    min -9.5max 10
  • Fatalities · 30
    min 0max 0
  • Confidence · 340.61
    min 0.25max 0.94

Quad class over those 34 events · Verbal Cooperation 18 · Material Cooperation 6 · Material Conflict 5 · Verbal Conflict 5. The four CAMEO+ scores are over the 31 CAMEO+ events only; the 3 conflict events have no such column.

Significance

34 measured / 34 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable

score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.

across all 34 events

Magnitude

31 measured / 31 eligible · 0 missing · 3 not applicable

score (0 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.

across the 31 of 34 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column

Systemic

31 measured / 31 eligible · 0 missing · 3 not applicable

score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.

across the 31 of 34 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column

Propagation

31 measured / 31 eligible · 0 missing · 3 not applicable

score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.

across the 31 of 34 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column

Market

31 measured / 31 eligible · 0 missing · 3 not applicable

score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.

across the 31 of 34 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column

Goldstein

34 measured / 34 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable

score (-10 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.

across the 34 of 34 events Goldstein is defined on — CAMEO+ POLITICAL and the conflict family; the other nine CAMEO+ domains have no Goldstein semantics

Fatalities

3 measured / 3 eligible · 0 missing · 31 not applicable

reported people · Reports may overlap; these are Event-level reports, not an additive unique human toll.

across the 3 of 34 events that report a toll — the conflict family only, and never 0 on a CAMEO+ event

Confidence

34 measured / 34 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable

score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.

across all 34 events

Metric definitions and limitations

This retained edition, independent of graph and page limits. Different dimensions, not a blended risk score; reported tolls may overlap.

Day by day24 reporting days · click a day to open or close it

2026-10-28from the recordslatest

Baghdad says Sinjar security is federal matter after Erbil objects

2 Stories and 1 coded Event (-2 / +1 against the day before). Widest coverage: Baghdad says Sinjar security is federal matter after Erbil objects (1 articles). Recorded acting: Government of the Kurdistan Region.

2-2
Stories · vs day before
1+1
Events · vs day before
2
articles
The lay of the land

Situation timeline

Threads
All 24 daysarticlesstoriesevents
09-2409-2910-0310-1110-2010-28
Loading Situation timeline…

What kind of event · 19 coded types

over 34 coded events on this edition

  • Political31
    • 01 · Make Public Statement8
    • 0874 · Retreat/surrender5
    • 051 · Praise or Endorse3
    • 0356 · Express Intent to De-escalate Military Engagement2
    • 1056 · Demand De-escalation of Military Engagement2
    • 0212 · Military1
    • 0312 · Military1
Salient structure

What holds this Situation together

Selected from the complete retained edition

Key threads

  1. core
    AnalystCoalition drawdown and mission milestones

    Iraq’s headquarters announcement was followed by separate U.S., Italian, Dutch, and German withdrawal or mission-end milestones.

    Iraq’s headquarters announcement was followed by separate U.S., Italian, Dutch, and German withdrawal or mission-end milestones.

    Footnotes[38][26][21][22][24][25]
  2. development
    AnalystDisarmament demands and faction positions

    Iraqi deadlines and faction statements describe a weapons-control effort, not verified broad disarmament.

    Iraqi deadlines and faction statements describe a weapons-control effort, not verified broad disarmament.

    Footnotes[9][10][13][11][28]
  3. development
    AnalystSinjar integration and federal authority

    Accounts distinguish a reported integration of Sinjar Protection Units, a plan concerning YBS, and Baghdad’s statement on federal authority.

    Accounts distinguish a reported integration of Sinjar Protection Units, a plan concerning YBS, and Baghdad’s statement on federal authority.

    Footnotes[29][31][37][3][1]
  4. development
    AnalystSecurity actions and cooperation

    Iraq ordered higher security readiness, held a security-cooperation meeting with a U.S. official, and conducted a separately dated strike against an ISIS hideout.

    Iraq ordered higher security readiness, held a security-cooperation meeting with a U.S. official, and conducted a separately dated strike against an ISIS hideout.

    Footnotes[23][27][32][6][5]

Key actors

  1. DT
    AnalystDonald Trump

    Donald Trump said U.S. troops could return to Iraq if needed, praised Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi, and said the United States would not abandon its allies.

    Donald Trump said U.S. troops could return to Iraq if needed, praised Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi, and said the United States would not abandon its allies.

    Footnotes[40][34][30][39]
  2. FH
    AnalystFouad Hussein

    Fouad Hussein met Michael Needham in Washington to discuss security cooperation.

    Fouad Hussein met Michael Needham in Washington to discuss security cooperation.

    Footnotes[42][27][6]

Key Events

  1. contextAnalystIraq announces closure of International Coalition headquarters

    Iraq announced closure of International Coalition headquarters on September 25.

    Iraq announced closure of International Coalition headquarters on September 25.

    Footnotes[38][44]
  2. contextAnalystUS troops complete withdrawal from Baghdad base

    The Event dates the U.S. withdrawal from a Baghdad base to September 29.

    The Event dates the U.S. withdrawal from a Baghdad base to September 29.

    Footnotes[26][46]
  3. contextAnalystUnited States completes its military mission and withdraws from Iraq

    The Event dates a U.S. mission-and-withdrawal milestone at Erbil to September 30.

    The Event dates a U.S. mission-and-withdrawal milestone at Erbil to September 30.

    Footnotes[22][47]
  4. contextAnalystIraq orders higher security readiness after coalition withdrawal

    Iraq ordered higher security readiness on October 2.

    Iraq ordered higher security readiness on October 2.

    Footnotes[23][49][8]
  5. contextAnalystIraqi foreign minister Fouad Hussein meets US security official in Washington

    Fouad Hussein met Michael Needham in Washington on October 3 to discuss security cooperation.

    Fouad Hussein met Michael Needham in Washington on October 3 to discuss security cooperation.

    Footnotes[27][6]

Notable connections

Evidenced relationships involving significant participants beyond the central cast.

  1. Donald Trump made a conditional statement that U.S. troops could return to Iraq if needed. · recorded participationAnalystDonald Trump → Trump says US troops could return to Iraq if needed

    The Event names Donald Trump as the actor making the statement.

    The Event names Donald Trump as the actor making the statement.

    Footnotes[40][34]
  2. Fouad Hussein met Michael Needham in Washington. · recorded participationAnalystFouad Hussein → Iraqi foreign minister Fouad Hussein meets US security official in Washington

    The Event names Fouad Hussein as actor and Michael Needham as target.

    The Event names Fouad Hussein as actor and Michael Needham as target.

    Footnotes[42][27]
  3. The Government of the Kurdistan Region was the target of Baghdad’s statement about Sinjar security. · recorded participationAnalystGovernment of the Kurdistan Region → Baghdad says Sinjar security falls under federal authority

    The Event names the Kurdistan Regional Government as target; the linked Entity is the Government of the Kurdistan Region.

    The Event names the Kurdistan Regional Government as target; the linked Entity is the Government of the Kurdistan Region.

    Footnotes[41][37]
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How a Situation is put together95 Stories · 34 Events · 95 membership connections · 623 graph edges

A retained time step

This edition freezes the complete served membership and analysis available through its UTC cutoff. Later repairs or identity changes do not rewrite what this edition showed.

Stories, Events, and cast

Stories are reporting clusters. Events are coded occurrences within that reporting. The cast contains 173 canonical people and organizations linked to the retained evidence.

Typed connections

Story-to-Event edges identify supporting reporting. Entity-to-Event edges identify recorded actor or target participation. Mentions and analytical roles stay visibly distinct from recorded participation.

Core, precursor, and continuation labels organize the reading. They do not by themselves establish causation. Collapsed graph groups and paginated evidence change presentation only; counts use the complete retained edition.