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Connected Situation / Through 2026-10-01

U.S. Withdrawal and Coalition Mission End in Iraq

stories
29
events
12
entities
111
connections
29
Retained edition
Evidence so far on 2026-10-01 UTC · updated 2026-10-01 08:26 UTC · analysis as of 2026-10-01 02:28 UTCSign in for the live Situation ↗
Narrative

As-of analysis

Carried forward
Situation at a glance

On 29 September 2026, Events dated the United States’ withdrawal from a Baghdad base and Italy’s military withdrawal from Iraq. On 30 September, an Event describing the United States completing its military mission and withdrawing from Iraq was located in Erbil. The headlines “US forces complete withdrawal from Iraq after 23 years” and “US concludes military mission in Iraq after decade-long fight against ISIS” use different duration descriptions. The Story “United States withdraws its last troops from Iraq, handing Taji base to Iraqi forces” reports the Taji handover, while “US-led coalition ends its mission in Iraq” reports the coalition mission’s end. A Story and Event describe the Netherlands’ military contribution to Operation Inherent Resolve as ending on 30 September. Muqtada al-Sadr’s compensation call and an Iraqi resistance group’s vow to shoot down hostile aircraft are also reported.

Footnotes[15][11][12][1][2][4][3][13][9][6][7]
Assessment

The main development is the reported end of the U.S. military mission and withdrawal from Iraq, alongside the coalition mission’s end, Italy’s military withdrawal, and the Netherlands’ ending of its contribution to Operation Inherent Resolve. The Taji handover and the Event located in Erbil provide specific details; the headlines’ 23-year and decade-long descriptions are different duration frames and should not be treated as interchangeable. Al-Sadr’s compensation call and the resistance group’s vow are reported political and security context; the cited accounts do not establish that either caused or altered the withdrawal. The aggregate event metrics describe eight political CAMEO+ Events and no conflict-family Event; they therefore provide no conflict fatality count or wider security outcome.

Footnotes[12][14][11][13][4][10][1][2][6][7][17]

Explanation originally captured 2026-10-01 · Evidence through 2026-10-01 UTC · Source edition sed_3db0f16253f165960a268e6cd5aee993

What informs this explanation
  • Complete retained Story and Event membership
  • Daily reporting and coded-occurrence time steps
  • Event taxonomies, metrics, units, and denominators
  • Canonical Entities and recorded actor/target bindings
  • Typed reporting, membership, and incident edges
  • Changes against the preceding retained edition
  • Permitted macro, public-record, and asset facts only when they were retained with an explicit source and observation date
Quantitative

Evidence in numbers

This retained edition
  • Scope

    A 4-day Situation represented by 12 coded Events carried across 29 member Stories.

  • Coded activity

    The coded activity is led by 01 · Make Public Statement (3) and 0874 · Retreat/surrender (3).

  • Prominent subjects

    Donald Trump is prominent in the retained actor and relationship evidence.

  • Entity coverage

    111 canonical Entities are linked to this edition.

Metric coverage. 12 coded Events · 11 CAMEO+ · 1 conflict. The four dimensions describe the CAMEO+ subset; conflict Events do not carry these scores.

Magnitude3.2
min 1max 7
11 measured
Systemic importance0.16
min 0.08max 0.27
11 measured
Propagation potential0.3
min 0.25max 0.4
11 measured
Market sensitivity0.05
min 0.05max 0.05
11 measured

Dot = mean · shaded span = observed range · position uses each metric’s defined scale.

All 8 scores, distributions & definitions

How the coder scored the full retained Event set

12 coded events — 11 CAMEO+ (11 political) · 1 conflict

  • Significance · 120.34
    min 0.19max 0.49
  • Magnitude · 113.2
    min 1max 7
  • Systemic · 110.16
    min 0.08max 0.27
  • Propagation · 110.3
    min 0.25max 0.4
  • Market · 110.05
    min 0.05max 0.05
  • Goldstein · 121.2
    min -6.5max 10
  • Fatalities · 10
    min 0max 0
  • Confidence · 120.75
    min 0.36max 0.94

Quad class over those 12 events · Verbal Cooperation 5 · Material Cooperation 3 · Material Conflict 2 · Verbal Conflict 2. The four CAMEO+ scores are over the 11 CAMEO+ events only; the 1 conflict events have no such column.

Significance

12 measured / 12 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable

score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.

across all 12 events

Magnitude

11 measured / 11 eligible · 0 missing · 1 not applicable

score (0 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.

across the 11 of 12 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column

Systemic

11 measured / 11 eligible · 0 missing · 1 not applicable

score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.

across the 11 of 12 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column

Propagation

11 measured / 11 eligible · 0 missing · 1 not applicable

score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.

across the 11 of 12 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column

Market

11 measured / 11 eligible · 0 missing · 1 not applicable

score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.

across the 11 of 12 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column

Goldstein

12 measured / 12 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable

score (-10 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.

across the 12 of 12 events Goldstein is defined on — CAMEO+ POLITICAL and the conflict family; the other nine CAMEO+ domains have no Goldstein semantics

Fatalities

1 measured / 1 eligible · 0 missing · 11 not applicable

reported people · Reports may overlap; these are Event-level reports, not an additive unique human toll.

across the 1 of 12 events that report a toll — the conflict family only, and never 0 on a CAMEO+ event

Confidence

12 measured / 12 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable

score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.

across all 12 events

Metric definitions and limitations

This retained edition, independent of graph and page limits. Different dimensions, not a blended risk score; reported tolls may overlap.

Day by day4 reporting days · click a day to open or close it

2026-10-01from the recordslatest

Italy ends its military presence in Iraq after 12 years

3 Stories and 2 coded Events (-13 / -5 against the day before). Widest coverage: Trump announces withdrawal of remaining U.S. troops from Iraq (60 articles).

Italy ends its military presence in Iraq after 12 yearsTrump announces withdrawal of remaining U.S. troops from Iraq
3-13
Stories · vs day before
2-5
Events · vs day before
65
articles
The lay of the land

Situation timeline

Threads
All 4 daysarticlesstoriesevents
09-2809-2909-3010-01
Loading Situation timeline…

What kind of event · 8 coded types

over 12 coded events on this edition

  • Political11
    • 01 · Make Public Statement3
    • 0874 · Retreat/surrender3
    • 0212 · Military1
    • 051 · Praise or Endorse1
    • 105 · Demand That Target Yield1
    • 166 · Expel/withdraw1
    • 1661 · Expel or Withdraw Peacekeepers1

Countries · where it happened

Countries · who is acting

Salient structure

What holds this Situation together

Selected from the complete retained edition

Key threads

  1. core
    AnalystU.S. withdrawal and mission end

    These Stories describe the U.S. withdrawal, the mission-ending account, and the Taji handover.

    These Stories describe the U.S. withdrawal, the mission-ending account, and the Taji handover.

    Footnotes[1][2][4][5][8]
  2. development
    AnalystCoalition mission and contributions

    These Stories cover the coalition mission ending and the Netherlands’ contribution ending.

    These Stories cover the coalition mission ending and the Netherlands’ contribution ending.

    Footnotes[3][9]
  3. development
    AnalystPolitical and security context

    These Stories report al-Sadr’s compensation call and a resistance group’s aircraft threat.

    These Stories report al-Sadr’s compensation call and a resistance group’s aircraft threat.

    Footnotes[6][7]

Key actors

  1. DT
    RuleDonald Trump

    Recorded as actor in 2 coded Events, including Donald Trump praises Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi.

    Recorded as actor in 2 coded Events, including Donald Trump praises Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi.

    Footnotes[16][?]

Key Events

  1. contextAnalystUS troops complete withdrawal from Baghdad base

    The United States’ withdrawal from a Baghdad base is dated 29 September.

    The United States’ withdrawal from a Baghdad base is dated 29 September.

    Footnotes[15][18]
  2. contextAnalystItaly completes its military withdrawal from Iraq

    Italy’s military withdrawal from Iraq is dated 29 September.

    Italy’s military withdrawal from Iraq is dated 29 September.

    Footnotes[11][18]
  3. contextAnalystUnited States completes its military mission and withdraws from Iraq

    The United States’ completed mission and withdrawal from Iraq are dated 30 September and located in Erbil.

    The United States’ completed mission and withdrawal from Iraq are dated 30 September and located in Erbil.

    Footnotes[12][19]
  4. contextAnalystcameoplus_6d1c1fb2ef46953a

    The Event describes the International Coalition mission ending its military role in Iraq on 30 September.

    The Event describes the International Coalition mission ending its military role in Iraq on 30 September.

    Footnotes[14][19]
  5. contextAnalystNetherlands ends military contribution to Operation Inherent Resolve

    The Netherlands’ military contribution to Operation Inherent Resolve is described as ending on 30 September.

    The Netherlands’ military contribution to Operation Inherent Resolve is described as ending on 30 September.

    Footnotes[13][19]

Notable connections

Evidenced relationships involving significant participants beyond the central cast.

  1. The Event is linked to “US concludes military mission in Iraq after decade-long fight against ISIS.” · reporting linkAnalystUS concludes military mission in Iraq after decade-long fight against ISIS → United States completes its military mission and withdraws from Iraq

    The Event lists this Story as supporting it.

    The Event lists this Story as supporting it.

    Footnotes[12][2]
  2. The Event is linked to “US-led coalition ends its mission in Iraq.” · reporting linkAnalystUS-led coalition ends its mission in Iraq → cameoplus_6d1c1fb2ef46953a

    The Event lists this Story as supporting it.

    The Event lists this Story as supporting it.

    Footnotes[14][3]

Current related Situations

Explore all →

Finding connected developments…

Compared with currently maintained Situation membership; this list is not part of the retained edition above.

How a Situation is put together29 Stories · 12 Events · 29 membership connections · 295 graph edges

A retained time step

This edition freezes the complete served membership and analysis available through its UTC cutoff. Later repairs or identity changes do not rewrite what this edition showed.

Stories, Events, and cast

Stories are reporting clusters. Events are coded occurrences within that reporting. The cast contains 111 canonical people and organizations linked to the retained evidence.

Typed connections

Story-to-Event edges identify supporting reporting. Entity-to-Event edges identify recorded actor or target participation. Mentions and analytical roles stay visibly distinct from recorded participation.

Core, precursor, and continuation labels organize the reading. They do not by themselves establish causation. Collapsed graph groups and paginated evidence change presentation only; counts use the complete retained edition.