Evidence so far on 2026-11-14 UTC · updated 2026-11-14 02:21 UTC · analysis as of 2026-11-13 00:34 UTCSign in for the live Situation ↗
Narrative
As-of analysis
Carried forward
Situation at a glance
On November 10, Volodymyr Zelensky made a public statement reporting Russia’s claim during Abu Dhabi talks, as described in “Zelensky reports Russia's claim during Abu Dhabi talks.” On November 11, Ukraine described the first day of the Abu Dhabi talks as productive, while Zelensky said Ukraine would not cede Donbas to Russia; the related Story was titled “Zelensky says Ukraine will not give up Donbas for a deal with Russia.” Zelensky thanked the UAE for providing a trusted negotiating venue in “Zelensky thanks UAE for providing a trusted venue for negotiations,” and accused the Russian delegation of fabrications in “Zelensky accuses Russian delegation of fabrications in negotiations.” On November 12, Ukraine and Russia were reported to have agreed to a prisoner exchange, while territory remained unresolved, in “Ukraine and Russia agree on prisoner exchange in Abu Dhabi, but territory unresolved.” That date also brought the Story “Witkoff's plane lands in Dublin after Abu Dhabi talks” and a report titled “Officials doubt Dublin talks can forge a unified European position on Ukraine.”
The Abu Dhabi developments combine Ukraine’s reported assessment of productive talks with Zelensky’s stated refusal to cede Donbas and a reported agreement to exchange prisoners. The coded prisoner Event describes an expression of intent to release people; these facts do not establish that an exchange was completed or that the territorial dispute was resolved. Zelensky’s accusation about the Russian delegation remains an attributed allegation, while the Dublin Story reports doubt about a unified European position rather than establishing that no such position existed.
Metric coverage. 7 coded Events · 7 CAMEO+ · 0 conflict. The four dimensions describe the CAMEO+ subset; conflict Events do not carry these scores.
Magnitude2.9
min 1max 5
7 measured
Systemic importance0.15
min 0.1max 0.22
7 measured
Propagation potential0.29
min 0.24max 0.36
7 measured
Market sensitivity0.05
min 0.05max 0.05
7 measured
Dot = mean · shaded span = observed range · position uses each metric’s defined scale.
All 7 scores, distributions & definitions
How the coder scored the full retained Event set
7 coded events — 7 CAMEO+ (7 political)
Significance · 70.32
min 0.2max 0.42
Magnitude · 72.9
min 1max 5
Systemic · 70.15
min 0.1max 0.22
Propagation · 70.29
min 0.24max 0.36
Market · 70.05
min 0.05max 0.05
Goldstein · 71.6
min -5max 7
Confidence · 70.71
min 0.35max 0.95
Quad class over those 7 events · Verbal Cooperation 5 · Verbal Conflict 2. No conflict-family event here, so nothing carries a fatality count — a missing column, not a toll of zero.
This retained edition, independent of graph and page limits. Different dimensions, not a blended risk score; reported tolls may overlap.
Day by day5 reporting days · click a day to open or close it
2026-11-14from the recordslatest
Russia denies report it will demand Finland withdraw from NATO
1 Story and 0 coded Events (-3 / -1 against the day before). Widest coverage: Russia denies report it will demand Finland withdraw from NATO (1 articles).
coreAnalystAbu Dhabi negotiations, Donbas and prisoner exchange
The thread joins the Donbas position and negotiation statements to the reported prisoner-exchange agreement and the Story about Witkoff’s travel after the Abu Dhabi talks.
The thread joins the Donbas position and negotiation statements to the reported prisoner-exchange agreement and the Story about Witkoff’s travel after the Abu Dhabi talks.
These Stories report Witkoff’s arrival in Dublin after the Abu Dhabi talks and officials’ doubts that Dublin talks could produce a unified European position on Ukraine.
These Stories report Witkoff’s arrival in Dublin after the Abu Dhabi talks and officials’ doubts that Dublin talks could produce a unified European position on Ukraine.
Evidenced relationships involving significant participants beyond the central cast.
Zelensky is the source actor in the November 10 public-statement Event. · recorded participationAnalystZelensky reports Russia's claim during Abu Dhabi talks → Volodymyr Zelenskyy
The Event identifies Zelensky as its source actor.
The Event identifies Zelensky as its source actor.
Zelensky is the source actor in the November 11 Donbas-refusal Event. · recorded participationAnalystZelensky says Ukraine will not cede Donbas to Russia → Volodymyr Zelenskyy
The Event identifies Zelensky as its source actor.
The Event identifies Zelensky as its source actor.
The November 10 public statement is linked to the Story about Ukraine’s Donbas position. · reporting linkAnalystZelensky reports Russia's claim during Abu Dhabi talks → Zelensky says Ukraine will not give up Donbas for a deal with Russia
The November 11 productive-talks Event is linked to the Story about Ukraine’s Donbas position. · reporting linkAnalystUkraine says first day of Abu Dhabi talks was productive → Zelensky says Ukraine will not give up Donbas for a deal with Russia
The Witkoff Story mentions Steve Witkoff; this connection does not establish his participation in the prisoner-exchange- · reporting linkAnalystWitkoff's plane lands in Dublin after Abu Dhabi talks → Steve Witkoff
The Story is listed among Witkoff’s supporting Stories, but the Entity is mention-only and has no recorded participation in the supplied Events.
The Story is listed among Witkoff’s supporting Stories, but the Entity is mention-only and has no recorded participation in the supplied Events.
Compared with currently maintained Situation membership; this list is not part of the retained edition above.
How a Situation is put together11 Stories · 7 Events · 11 membership connections · 194 graph edges
A retained time step
This edition freezes the complete served membership and analysis available through its UTC cutoff. Later repairs or identity changes do not rewrite what this edition showed.
Stories, Events, and cast
Stories are reporting clusters. Events are coded occurrences within that reporting. The cast contains 81 canonical people and organizations linked to the retained evidence.
Typed connections
Story-to-Event edges identify supporting reporting. Entity-to-Event edges identify recorded actor or target participation. Mentions and analytical roles stay visibly distinct from recorded participation.
Core, precursor, and continuation labels organize the reading. They do not by themselves establish causation. Collapsed graph groups and paginated evidence change presentation only; counts use the complete retained edition.
