Significance
149 measured / 149 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 149 events
Connected Situation / Through 2026-11-10
Venezuela’s Transition, Election Debate and External Engagement
- stories
- 402
- events
- 149
- entities
- 526
- connections
- 402
Evidence so far on 2026-11-10 UTC · updated 2026-11-10 14:23 UTC · analysis as of 2026-11-10 04:29 UTCSign in for the live Situation ↗
Narrative
As-of analysis
Situation at a glance
On September 24, Venezuela’s interim president said voters would decide election timing without naming a date, while a Venezuelan delegation demanded predictable health-system financing at the United Nations. On September 26, Donald Trump discussed Venezuelan elections with Delcy Rodríguez. The Venezuelan government began a third political-dialogue cycle on October 14; on October 21, the government and the 2015 National Assembly concluded a dialogue round as María Corina Machado urged Venezuelans to mobilize for an election date. On October 27, the United States urged Rodríguez to call elections, while Machado visited opposition ally Perkins Rocha, as reported in “María Corina Machado visits opposition ally Perkins Rocha at his home.” On November 5, Marco Rubio said elections ideally would take place in 2027, and “Venezuela urges sanctions lifted to revive its economy” reported Venezuela’s appeal at the Madrid summit. Since the prior edition’s November 5 endpoint, Dinorah Figuera’s November 8 statement anticipated further political-prisoner releases; it did not confirm those additional releases. Separate reports had documented releases in late September.
Footnotes[5][6][7][8][9][4][10][2][11][1]Assessment
The election timetable remains unresolved in these events: Rodríguez’s September statement named no date, Machado pressed for one, and Rubio’s November 5 description of 2027 as ideal is not an agreed schedule. The dialogue round’s conclusion establishes that talks took place, but the October 21 events do not establish that they settled election timing. The October 27 U.S. appeal, Machado’s position on a U.S. proposal, and Rubio’s 2027 statement are distinct positions rather than evidence of a common, implemented plan. Venezuela’s sanctions-relief appeal is a diplomatic and economic strand, not evidence of movement on an election timetable. Political-prisoner releases were reported in late September; the November 8 item is an expectation about further releases, not confirmation that those additional releases occurred.
Footnotes[5][8][9][10][2][11][1]Explanation originally captured 2026-11-10 · Evidence through 2026-11-10 UTC · Source edition sed_924351fb8163b6ef8ea7123e88f34d36
What informs this explanation
- Complete retained Story and Event membership
- Daily reporting and coded-occurrence time steps
- Event taxonomies, metrics, units, and denominators
- Canonical Entities and recorded actor/target bindings
- Typed reporting, membership, and incident edges
- Changes against the preceding retained edition
- Permitted macro, public-record, and asset facts only when they were retained with an explicit source and observation date
Quantitative
Evidence in numbers
- Scope
A 55-day Situation represented by 149 coded Events carried across 402 member Stories.
- Coded activity
The coded activity is led by 01 · Make Public Statement (23) and PEACEFUL PROTEST (11).
- Prominent subjects
María Corina Machado, Delcy Rodríguez, and Donald Trump are prominent in the retained actor and relationship evidence.
- Entity coverage
526 canonical Entities are linked to this edition.
Metric coverage. 149 coded Events · 136 CAMEO+ · 13 conflict. The four dimensions describe the CAMEO+ subset; conflict Events do not carry these scores.
Magnitude2.6
min 1max 7
Systemic importance0.12
min 0.05max 0.67
Propagation potential0.26
min 0max 0.38
Market sensitivity0.05
min 0.05max 0.3
Dot = mean · shaded span = observed range · position uses each metric’s defined scale.
All 8 scores, distributions & definitions
How the coder scored the full retained Event set
149 coded events — 136 CAMEO+ (132 political) · 13 conflict
- Significance · 1490.25min 0.11max 0.47
- Magnitude · 1362.6min 1max 7
- Systemic · 1360.12min 0.05max 0.67
- Propagation · 1360.26min 0max 0.38
- Market · 1360.05min 0.05max 0.3
- Goldstein · 1450.8min -7.5max 8
- Fatalities · 130min 0max 0
- Confidence · 1490.72min 0.28max 0.98
Quad class over those 145 events · Verbal Cooperation 105 · Verbal Conflict 31 · Material Cooperation 6 · Material Conflict 3. 4 sit outside POLITICAL, where Goldstein and quad class are undefined. The four CAMEO+ scores are over the 136 CAMEO+ events only; the 13 conflict events have no such column.
Magnitude
136 measured / 136 eligible · 0 missing · 13 not applicable
score (0 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 136 of 149 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Systemic
136 measured / 136 eligible · 0 missing · 13 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 136 of 149 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Propagation
136 measured / 136 eligible · 0 missing · 13 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 136 of 149 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Market
136 measured / 136 eligible · 0 missing · 13 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 136 of 149 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Goldstein
145 measured / 145 eligible · 0 missing · 4 not applicable
score (-10 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 145 of 149 events Goldstein is defined on — CAMEO+ POLITICAL and the conflict family; the other nine CAMEO+ domains have no Goldstein semantics
Fatalities
13 measured / 13 eligible · 0 missing · 136 not applicable
reported people · Reports may overlap; these are Event-level reports, not an additive unique human toll.
across the 13 of 149 events that report a toll — the conflict family only, and never 0 on a CAMEO+ event
Confidence
149 measured / 149 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 149 events
This retained edition, independent of graph and page limits. Different dimensions, not a blended risk score; reported tolls may overlap.
Day by day55 reporting days · click a day to open or close it
2026-11-10from the recordslatest
Rubio outlines steps toward a Venezuelan electoral council
12 Stories and 2 coded Events (+3 / -2 against the day before). Widest coverage: Cilia Flores' defense again seeks dismissal under sovereign immunity (5 articles). Recorded acting: Cilia Flores, Marco Rubio.
- 12+3
- Stories · vs day before
- 2-2
- Events · vs day before
- 19
- articles
The lay of the land
Situation timeline
Threads
All 55 daysarticlesstoriesevents
09-1709-2810-0910-1910-3011-10
Loading Situation timeline…
What kind of event · 46 coded types
over 149 coded events on this edition
- Political132
- 01 · Make Public Statement23
- 043 · Host A Visit10
- 042 · Make A Visit9
- 051 · Praise or Endorse9
- 046 · Engage in Negotiation8
- 04 · Consult7
- 111 · Criticize or Denounce6
Countries · where it happened
Countries · who is acting
Salient structure
What holds this Situation together
Selected from the complete retained edition
Key threads
- core
AnalystDialogue, election demands and external engagement
The dialogue events and public election appeals document concurrent political activity, but do not establish an agreed election date.
- development
AnalystVenezuelan diplomacy and sanctions relief
Venezuela’s November 5 appeal at the Madrid summit concerned sanctions relief; a separate headline reported a planned Rubio meeting with Venezuela’s new foreign minister.
- development
Key actors
- MM
RuleMaría Corina Machado
Recorded as actor and target in 21 coded Events, including María Corina Machado plans Venezuela tour to demand elections.
Recorded as actor and target in 21 coded Events, including María Corina Machado plans Venezuela tour to demand elections.
Footnotes[?][?][?][?][?] - DR
RuleDelcy Rodríguez
Recorded as actor and target in 28 coded Events, including Delcy Rodríguez meets IDB president in New York.
Recorded as actor and target in 28 coded Events, including Delcy Rodríguez meets IDB president in New York.
Footnotes[?][?][?][?][?] - DT
RuleDonald Trump
Recorded as actor and target in 15 coded Events, including Donald Trump threatens military force in Latin America.
Recorded as actor and target in 15 coded Events, including Donald Trump threatens military force in Latin America.
Footnotes[?][?][?][?][?] - NM
RuleNicolás Maduro
Recorded as target and actor in 4 coded Events, including Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores plead not guilty in New York.
Recorded as target and actor in 4 coded Events, including Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores plead not guilty in New York.
Footnotes[?][?][?][?] - UN
RuleUnited Nations
Recorded as actor and target in 3 coded Events, including Venezuelan delegation demands predictable health-system financing at UN.
Recorded as actor and target in 3 coded Events, including Venezuelan delegation demands predictable health-system financing at UN.
Footnotes[?][?][?]
Key Events
RuleMarco Rubio schedules meeting with Venezuela’s Oliver Blanco
2026-11-01 · POLITICAL
2026-11-01 · POLITICAL
RuleVenezuelan government urges EU sanctions relief at Madrid summit
2026-11-05 · POLITICAL
2026-11-05 · POLITICAL
RuleDinorah Figuera announces more political prisoner releases in Venezuela
2026-11-08 · POLITICAL
2026-11-08 · POLITICAL
RuleMaría Corina Machado visits her house-arrested legal adviser
2026-10-27 · POLITICAL
2026-10-27 · POLITICAL
Notable connections
Evidenced relationships involving significant participants beyond the central cast.
Both concern Venezuelan government engagement with external counterparts: one headline reported a planned meeting with U · analytical connectionAnalystMarco Rubio to meet Venezuela's new foreign minister in Washington → Venezuela urges sanctions lifted to revive its economy
The planned Rubio meeting and Venezuela’s appeal to the European Union at the Madrid summit are separate diplomatic items, not evidence of coordination.
How a Situation is put together402 Stories · 149 Events · 402 membership connections · 3,520 graph edges
A retained time step
This edition freezes the complete served membership and analysis available through its UTC cutoff. Later repairs or identity changes do not rewrite what this edition showed.
Stories, Events, and cast
Stories are reporting clusters. Events are coded occurrences within that reporting. The cast contains 526 canonical people and organizations linked to the retained evidence.
Typed connections
Story-to-Event edges identify supporting reporting. Entity-to-Event edges identify recorded actor or target participation. Mentions and analytical roles stay visibly distinct from recorded participation.
Core, precursor, and continuation labels organize the reading. They do not by themselves establish causation. Collapsed graph groups and paginated evidence change presentation only; counts use the complete retained edition.