Significance
51 measured / 51 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 51 events
Connected Situation / Through 2026-10-24
Panama Earthquake: Impacts, Assistance and Recovery
- stories
- 118
- events
- 51
- entities
- 199
- connections
- 118
Evidence so far on 2026-10-24 UTC · updated 2026-10-24 20:25 UTC · analysis as of 2026-10-24 17:30 UTCSign in for the live Situation ↗
Narrative
As-of analysis
Situation at a glance
Panama’s October 9 earthquake prompted conflicting magnitude headlines: one report gave 7.0, while other October 9 reports gave 7.6 or 7.7; an October 10 headline also reported 7.7 and tsunami warnings. On October 9, Ensa restored 17 power circuits in Colón, while Uruguay’s Yamandú Orsi offered aid to Panama’s José Raúl Mulino. On October 11, Panama’s geosciences institute counted 256 Azuero aftershocks, and “Panama declares emergency as powerful earthquake aftershocks rattle communities” reported the emergency declaration. “Panama earthquake affects 6,174 people and damages 1,744 homes” reported impacts on October 13; that day the United States delivered 17 trucks to SENAFRONT. Venezuela announced an aid shipment on October 15, and a Story dated October 16 reported that the Venezuelan government sent 40 tonnes; the United States later pledged additional assessment funding, while reports dated October 23 described more than 12,000 damaged homes and financing for affected businesses.
Footnotes[27][26][29][43][36][25][21][37][42][16][46][1]Assessment
The earthquake’s consequences span immediate service disruption and aftershock impacts, displacement and damaged homes, aid deliveries, and housing and economic recovery measures. Magnitude headlines vary: reports dated October 9 gave 7.0, 7.6, and 7.7, and an October 10 headline also gave 7.7; the headlines alone do not establish a single value. Aid announcements and pledges are distinct from reported deliveries: the October 15 Venezuelan announcement, the October 16 report of 40 tonnes sent, and United States deliveries and pledges should not be treated as interchangeable or automatically additive. The October 23 financing and home-risk classification are reported actions, while “Earthquake leaves 40 homes uninhabitable in San Carlos, Panama, with aid delayed” also describes continuing need; neither establishes that recovery is complete. A Guatemala earthquake-damage Event is linked to the Panama shelter Story, but it does not establish Guatemala damage as part of Panama’s impacts.
Footnotes[27][26][42][16][37][46][47][35][1][33][34][2]Explanation originally captured 2026-10-24 · Evidence through 2026-10-24 UTC · Source edition sed_55b97a1ba2bcadab9138d5f2b52c3b3a
What informs this explanation
- Complete retained Story and Event membership
- Daily reporting and coded-occurrence time steps
- Event taxonomies, metrics, units, and denominators
- Canonical Entities and recorded actor/target bindings
- Typed reporting, membership, and incident edges
- Changes against the preceding retained edition
- Permitted macro, public-record, and asset facts only when they were retained with an explicit source and observation date
Quantitative
Evidence in numbers
- Scope
A 16-day Situation represented by 51 coded Events carried across 118 member Stories.
- Coded activity
The coded activity is led by EN01 · Geophysical Hazard (21) and 073 · Provide Humanitarian Aid (6).
- Prominent subjects
Yamandú Orsi, José Raúl Mulino, and Government of Venezuela are prominent in the retained actor and relationship evidence.
- Entity coverage
199 canonical Entities are linked to this edition.
Metric coverage. 51 coded Events · 51 CAMEO+ · 0 conflict. The four dimensions describe the CAMEO+ subset; conflict Events do not carry these scores.
Magnitude2.4
min 1max 5
Systemic importance0.12
min 0.05max 0.3
Propagation potential0.29
min 0.2max 0.46
Market sensitivity0.06
min 0.05max 0.38
Dot = mean · shaded span = observed range · position uses each metric’s defined scale.
All 7 scores, distributions & definitions
How the coder scored the full retained Event set
51 coded events — 51 CAMEO+ (19 political)
- Significance · 510.27min 0.17max 0.38
- Magnitude · 512.4min 1max 5
- Systemic · 510.12min 0.05max 0.3
- Propagation · 510.29min 0.2max 0.46
- Market · 510.06min 0.05max 0.38
- Goldstein · 193.8min -2max 7.4
- Confidence · 510.53min 0.28max 0.99
Quad class over those 19 events · Verbal Cooperation 12 · Material Cooperation 6 · Verbal Conflict 1. No conflict-family event here, so nothing carries a fatality count — a missing column, not a toll of zero. 32 sit outside POLITICAL, where Goldstein and quad class are undefined.
Magnitude
51 measured / 51 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 51 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Systemic
51 measured / 51 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 51 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Propagation
51 measured / 51 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 51 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Market
51 measured / 51 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 51 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Goldstein
19 measured / 19 eligible · 0 missing · 32 not applicable
score (-10 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 19 of 51 events Goldstein is defined on — CAMEO+ POLITICAL and the conflict family; the other nine CAMEO+ domains have no Goldstein semantics
Confidence
51 measured / 51 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 51 events
This retained edition, independent of graph and page limits. Different dimensions, not a blended risk score; reported tolls may overlap.
Day by day16 reporting days · click a day to open or close it
2026-10-24from the recordslatest
Panama delivers rebuilt homes to families affected by earthquake
7 Stories and 0 coded Events (0 / -2 against the day before). Widest coverage: Panama delivers rebuilt homes to families affected by earthquake (4 articles).
- 70
- Stories · vs day before
- 0-2
- Events · vs day before
- 10
- articles
The lay of the land
Situation timeline
Threads
All 16 daysarticlesstoriesevents
10-0910-1210-1510-1810-2110-24
Loading Situation timeline…
What kind of event · 15 coded types
over 51 coded events on this edition
- Environment21
- EN01 · Geophysical Hazard21
- Political19
- 073 · Provide Humanitarian Aid6
- 0333 · Express Intent to Provide Humanitarian Aid5
- 01 · Make Public Statement2
- 018 · Empathetic Comment2
- 0233 · Humanitarian1
- 033 · Intent to Provide Material Aid1
Countries · where it happened
Countries · who is acting
Salient structure
What holds this Situation together
Selected from the complete retained edition
Key threads
- core
AnalystEarthquake, aftershocks and community impacts
These Stories cover the earthquake and aftershocks, emergency declaration, displacement, home damage and continuing housing needs.
- development
AnalystRelief, outside assistance and disrupted services
These Stories describe disrupted services and domestic and international assistance, including reported deliveries and expressed aid intentions.
- development
AnalystRecovery needs, assessment and rebuilding
These Stories describe assistance, building assessments, reconstruction, damaged homes and economic effects.
Key actors
- YO
- JM
AnalystJosé Raúl Mulino
José Raúl Mulino was the target of Orsi’s October 9 aid offer and acted in an Event describing expressed intent to provide humanitarian aid to affected families.
- GO
AnalystGovernment of Venezuela
The Government of Venezuela announced an aid shipment for Panama and was the target of Panama’s thanks for emergency-response support.
Key Events
contextAnalystEnsa restores 17 power circuits after earthquake in Colón
On October 9, Ensa restored 17 power circuits in Colón.
On October 9, Ensa restored 17 power circuits in Colón.
Footnotes[29]
contextAnalystMetro de Panamá keeps two lines suspended after aftershocks
On October 10, Metro de Panamá kept two lines suspended after aftershocks.
On October 10, Metro de Panamá kept two lines suspended after aftershocks.
Footnotes[30]
contextAnalystPanama geosciences institute counts 256 Azuero aftershocks
On October 11, Panama’s geosciences institute counted 256 Azuero aftershocks.
On October 11, Panama’s geosciences institute counted 256 Azuero aftershocks.
Footnotes[36]
contextAnalystEarthquake aftershocks leave Tonosí residents without homes and services
On October 11, an Event described Tonosí residents without homes and services.
On October 11, an Event described Tonosí residents without homes and services.
Footnotes[40]
contextAnalystUnited States delivers 17 trucks to Panama's SENAFRONT
On October 13, the United States delivered 17 trucks to Panama’s SENAFRONT.
On October 13, the United States delivered 17 trucks to Panama’s SENAFRONT.
Footnotes[37]
Notable connections
Evidenced relationships involving significant participants beyond the central cast.
Yamandú Orsi acted in the Event offering Uruguay’s aid to José Raúl Mulino. · recorded participationAnalystYamandú Orsi → Yamandú Orsi offers Uruguay’s aid to Panama after earthquake
The Event identifies Orsi as actor and Mulino as target.
José Raúl Mulino acted in an Event describing his expressed aid intent. · recorded participationAnalystJosé Raúl Mulino → José Raúl Mulino sends ministers to earthquake-hit provinces
The Event identifies Mulino as actor and describes expressed intent.
The Government of Venezuela announced an aid shipment for Panama. · recorded participationAnalystGovernment of Venezuela → Venezuela announces humanitarian aid shipment for Panama
The Event identifies the Government of Venezuela as actor and describes an announcement.
The Government of Venezuela was the target of Panama’s thanks for emergency-response support. · recorded participationAnalystGovernment of Venezuela → Panama thanks Venezuela for emergency-response support
The Event identifies the Government of Venezuela as its target.
The aid Event is linked to the Story reporting Venezuela’s 40-tonne shipment. · reporting linkAnalystVenezuelan government sends 40 tonnes of aid to Panama → Venezuela sends 40 tonnes of humanitarian aid to Panama after earthquake
The Event is linked to the Story reporting the shipment.
How a Situation is put together118 Stories · 51 Events · 118 membership connections · 985 graph edges
A retained time step
This edition freezes the complete served membership and analysis available through its UTC cutoff. Later repairs or identity changes do not rewrite what this edition showed.
Stories, Events, and cast
Stories are reporting clusters. Events are coded occurrences within that reporting. The cast contains 199 canonical people and organizations linked to the retained evidence.
Typed connections
Story-to-Event edges identify supporting reporting. Entity-to-Event edges identify recorded actor or target participation. Mentions and analytical roles stay visibly distinct from recorded participation.
Core, precursor, and continuation labels organize the reading. They do not by themselves establish causation. Collapsed graph groups and paginated evidence change presentation only; counts use the complete retained edition.