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Connected Situation / Through 2026-10-26

Anak Krakatau Eruption, Travel Disruption and Sunda Strait Search

stories
55
events
32
entities
240
connections
55
Retained edition
Evidence so far on 2026-10-26 UTC · updated 2026-10-26 06:26 UTC · analysis as of 2026-10-25 11:25 UTCSign in for the live Situation ↗
Narrative

As-of analysis

Carried forward
Situation at a glance

Anak Krakatau erupted with a 14-kilometer plume on September 4. On September 5, an eruption prompted a three-kilometer exclusion zone, as “Anak Krakatau erupts in Lampung, residents warned to stay 3 km away” reported. [citation] Indonesian authorities suspended 209 flights at Jakarta’s Soekarno-Hatta airport on September 6, and Garuda Indonesia diverted two flights; “Jakarta airport suspends flights due to volcano ash” covered the disruption. [citation] On September 8, Dudy Purwagandhi reopened Soekarno-Hatta, while “Erupsi Gunung Anak Krakatau, 2.961 Penerbangan Terdampak hingga 7 September” reported flight impacts through September 7. [citation] “Five journalists lose contact near Anak Krakatau” reported the loss of contact on September 9; Indonesia SAR expanded its search on September 13, and Polresta Tangerang searched for five journalists and three crew members on September 15. [citation] Basarnas’s September 17 Event describes it ending a search for eight missing people, and “Indonesia ends search for eight people missing at sea” reported the announcement on September 18. [citation]

Footnotes[32][27][19][21][23][17][22][14][13][36][6][35]
Assessment

The cited Events and headlines describe volcanic activity updates and search operations for people reported missing near Anak Krakatau. They do not establish that the eruption caused the loss of contact. The search accounts refer at different points to five journalists, five journalists and three crew members, and eight missing people; those differing descriptions do not establish a reconciled roster or final outcome. Indonesia’s September 8 report that an eruption phase had ended, its September 10 report of renewed eruption, and the September 13 account of easing activity are distinct updates, not a single settled description. The warning-system story reports an alert failure and its linked Event describes a software gap, but neither establishes that the gap caused the failure. The Virgo Transport 8 identification report does not establish that the vessel or victims belong to the Sunda Strait case.

Footnotes[26][34][33][13][29][36][35][25][2][10][24][1]

Explanation originally captured 2026-10-25 · Evidence through 2026-10-26 UTC · Source edition sed_53fc10180294b891b51a0f6954a3f5fe

What informs this explanation
  • Complete retained Story and Event membership
  • Daily reporting and coded-occurrence time steps
  • Event taxonomies, metrics, units, and denominators
  • Canonical Entities and recorded actor/target bindings
  • Typed reporting, membership, and incident edges
  • Changes against the preceding retained edition
  • Permitted macro, public-record, and asset facts only when they were retained with an explicit source and observation date
Quantitative

Evidence in numbers

This retained edition
  • Scope

    A 36-day Situation represented by 32 coded Events carried across 55 member Stories.

  • Coded activity

    The coded activity is led by EN01 · Geophysical Hazard (19) and IN02 · Transport Disruption (9).

  • Prominent subjects

    Dudy Purwagandhi and Hongkong Post are prominent in the retained actor and relationship evidence.

  • Entity coverage

    240 canonical Entities are linked to this edition.

Metric coverage. 32 coded Events · 31 CAMEO+ · 1 conflict. The four dimensions describe the CAMEO+ subset; conflict Events do not carry these scores.

Magnitude2.7
min 1max 5
30 measured
Systemic importance0.23
min 0.1max 0.6
31 measured
Propagation potential0.36
min 0.2max 0.53
31 measured
Market sensitivity0.17
min 0.05max 0.5
31 measured

Dot = mean · shaded span = observed range · position uses each metric’s defined scale.

All 8 scores, distributions & definitions

How the coder scored the full retained Event set

32 coded events — 31 CAMEO+ · 1 conflict

  • Significance · 320.33
    min 0.18max 0.54
  • Magnitude · 302.7
    min 1max 5
  • Systemic · 310.23
    min 0.1max 0.6
  • Propagation · 310.36
    min 0.2max 0.53
  • Market · 310.17
    min 0.05max 0.5
  • Goldstein · 1-6.5
    min -6.5max -6.5
  • Fatalities · 10
    min 0max 0
  • Confidence · 320.83
    min 0.42max 0.98

Quad class over that 1 event · Verbal Conflict 1. 31 sit outside POLITICAL, where Goldstein and quad class are undefined. The four CAMEO+ scores are over the 31 CAMEO+ events only; the 1 conflict events have no such column.

Significance

32 measured / 32 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable

score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.

across all 32 events

Magnitude

30 measured / 31 eligible · 1 missing · 1 not applicable

score (0 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.

across the 31 of 32 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column

Systemic

31 measured / 31 eligible · 0 missing · 1 not applicable

score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.

across the 31 of 32 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column

Propagation

31 measured / 31 eligible · 0 missing · 1 not applicable

score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.

across the 31 of 32 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column

Market

31 measured / 31 eligible · 0 missing · 1 not applicable

score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.

across the 31 of 32 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column

Goldstein

1 measured / 1 eligible · 0 missing · 31 not applicable

score (-10 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.

across the 1 of 32 events Goldstein is defined on — CAMEO+ POLITICAL and the conflict family; the other nine CAMEO+ domains have no Goldstein semantics

Fatalities

1 measured / 1 eligible · 0 missing · 31 not applicable

reported people · Reports may overlap; these are Event-level reports, not an additive unique human toll.

across the 1 of 32 events that report a toll — the conflict family only, and never 0 on a CAMEO+ event

Confidence

32 measured / 32 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable

score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.

across all 32 events

Metric definitions and limitations

This retained edition, independent of graph and page limits. Different dimensions, not a blended risk score; reported tolls may overlap.

Day by day24 reporting days · click a day to open or close it

2026-10-09from the recordslatest

South Kalimantan DVI team explains how it identified hard-to-recognize Virgo victims

1 Story and 0 coded Events (0 / 0 against the day before). Widest coverage: South Kalimantan DVI team explains how it identified hard-to-recognize Virgo victims (2 articles).

South Kalimantan DVI team explains how it identified hard-to-recognize Virgo victims
10
Stories · vs day before
00
Events · vs day before
2
articles
The lay of the land

Situation timeline

Threads
All 24 daysarticlesstoriesevents
09-0409-0909-1309-1809-2310-09
Loading Situation timeline…

What kind of event · 5 coded types

over 32 coded events on this edition

  • Environment21
    • EN01 · Geophysical Hazard19
    • EN05 · Environmental Policy or Agreement2
  • Infrastructure9
    • IN02 · Transport Disruption9
  • Conflict1
    • PEACEFUL PROTEST1
  • Technology1
    • TE06 · Critical Tech Infrastructure1

Countries · where it happened

Countries · who is acting

Salient structure

What holds this Situation together

Selected from the complete retained edition

Key threads

  1. core
    AnalystAnak Krakatau activity and transport effects

    These Stories and Events describe Anak Krakatau’s eruptions and activity updates, ash-related transport disruption, and the Soekarno-Hatta reopening.

    These Stories and Events describe Anak Krakatau’s eruptions and activity updates, ash-related transport disruption, and the Soekarno-Hatta reopening.

    Footnotes[20][19][18][17][15][16][14][7][8][11][12][4]
  2. core
    AnalystMissing journalists and Sunda Strait search

    These Stories and Events describe the reported loss of contact, SAR and police search operations, and Basarnas’s search-ending announcement.

    These Stories and Events describe the reported loss of contact, SAR and police search operations, and Basarnas’s search-ending announcement.

    Footnotes[13][9][6][5][3][2][29][36][35][25]
  3. development
    AnalystVolcanic warning-system reporting

    The Story describes an alert failure and its linked Event describes a software gap; neither establishes that the gap caused the failure.

    The Story describes an alert failure and its linked Event describes a software gap; neither establishes that the gap caused the failure.

    Footnotes[10][24]
  4. unresolved
    AnalystVirgo Transport 8 identification report

    The Story and linked Event concern Virgo Transport 8 victims; they do not establish a connection to the Sunda Strait search.

    The Story and linked Event concern Virgo Transport 8 victims; they do not establish a connection to the Sunda Strait search.

    Footnotes[1][37][3]

Key actors

  1. DP
    AnalystDudy Purwagandhi

    Dudy Purwagandhi reopened Soekarno-Hatta Airport on September 8.

    Dudy Purwagandhi reopened Soekarno-Hatta Airport on September 8.

    Footnotes[38][22]
  2. HP
    AnalystHongkong Post

    Hongkong Post delayed mail to postal service users in Indonesia after flight cancellations.

    Hongkong Post delayed mail to postal service users in Indonesia after flight cancellations.

    Footnotes[39][30]

Key Events

  1. contextAnalystAnak Krakatau erupts with 14-kilometer volcanic plume

    Anak Krakatau erupted with a 14-kilometer plume on September 4.

    Anak Krakatau erupted with a 14-kilometer plume on September 4.

    Footnotes[32]
  2. contextAnalystAnak Krakatau erupts, prompting three-kilometer exclusion zone

    The September 5 Event describes an eruption and a three-kilometer exclusion zone for residents and visitors in South Lampung.

    The September 5 Event describes an eruption and a three-kilometer exclusion zone for residents and visitors in South Lampung.

    Footnotes[27][19]
  3. contextAnalystIndonesian authorities suspend 209 flights at Jakarta airport

    Indonesian authorities suspended 209 flights at Jakarta airport on September 6.

    Indonesian authorities suspended 209 flights at Jakarta airport on September 6.

    Footnotes[21][17]
  4. contextAnalystGaruda Indonesia diverts two flights to Kertajati

    Garuda Indonesia diverted two flights to Kertajati on September 6.

    Garuda Indonesia diverted two flights to Kertajati on September 6.

    Footnotes[23][17]
  5. contextAnalystDudy Purwagandhi reopens Soekarno-Hatta Airport after ash disruption

    Dudy Purwagandhi reopened Soekarno-Hatta Airport on September 8.

    Dudy Purwagandhi reopened Soekarno-Hatta Airport on September 8.

    Footnotes[22][14]

Notable connections

Evidenced relationships involving significant participants beyond the central cast.

  1. Dudy Purwagandhi reopened Soekarno-Hatta Airport. · recorded participationAnalystDudy Purwagandhi → Dudy Purwagandhi reopens Soekarno-Hatta Airport after ash disruption

    The Event names Dudy Purwagandhi as the actor who reopened the airport.

    The Event names Dudy Purwagandhi as the actor who reopened the airport.

    Footnotes[38][22]
  2. Hongkong Post delayed mail to postal service users in Indonesia. · recorded participationAnalystHongkong Post → Hongkong Post delays Indonesia mail after flight cancellations

    The Event names Hongkong Post as actor and postal service users in Indonesia as the target.

    The Event names Hongkong Post as actor and postal service users in Indonesia as the target.

    Footnotes[39][30]
  3. “Jakarta airport suspends flights due to volcano ash” reports the flight suspension. · reporting linkAnalystJakarta airport suspends flights due to volcano ash → Indonesian authorities suspend 209 flights at Jakarta airport

    The Story is linked to the Event describing the flight suspension.

    The Story is linked to the Event describing the flight suspension.

    Footnotes[17][21]
  4. “Anak Krakatau erupts in Lampung, residents warned to stay 3 km away” reports the eruption and exclusion zone. · reporting linkAnalystAnak Krakatau erupts in Lampung, residents warned to stay 3 km away → Anak Krakatau erupts, prompting three-kilometer exclusion zone

    The Story is linked to the Event describing the eruption and exclusion zone.

    The Story is linked to the Event describing the eruption and exclusion zone.

    Footnotes[19][27]
  5. The loss-of-contact headline places the journalists near Anak Krakatau, where the Event describes an eruption; the… · analytical connectionAnalystFive journalists lose contact near Anak Krakatau → Anak Krakatau erupts, prompting three-kilometer exclusion zone

    The headline places the loss of contact near Anak Krakatau, where the Event describes an eruption; these facts do not establish that the eruption caused the disappearance.

    The headline places the loss of contact near Anak Krakatau, where the Event describes an eruption; these facts do not establish that the eruption caused the disappearance.

    Footnotes[13][27]

Current related Situations

Explore all →

Finding connected developments…

Compared with currently maintained Situation membership; this list is not part of the retained edition above.

How a Situation is put together55 Stories · 32 Events · 55 membership connections · 577 graph edges

A retained time step

This edition freezes the complete served membership and analysis available through its UTC cutoff. Later repairs or identity changes do not rewrite what this edition showed.

Stories, Events, and cast

Stories are reporting clusters. Events are coded occurrences within that reporting. The cast contains 240 canonical people and organizations linked to the retained evidence.

Typed connections

Story-to-Event edges identify supporting reporting. Entity-to-Event edges identify recorded actor or target participation. Mentions and analytical roles stay visibly distinct from recorded participation.

Core, precursor, and continuation labels organize the reading. They do not by themselves establish causation. Collapsed graph groups and paginated evidence change presentation only; counts use the complete retained edition.