Significance
1012 measured / 1012 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 1012 events
Connected Situation / Through 2026-11-08
U.S.–Iran confrontation over Hormuz, shipping and diplomacy
- stories
- 2,280
- events
- 1,012
- entities
- 2,286
- connections
- 2,280
Evidence so far on 2026-11-08 UTC · updated 2026-11-08 12:25 UTC · analysis as of 2026-11-07 13:29 UTCSign in for the live Situation ↗
Narrative
As-of analysis
Situation at a glance
On August 4, Qatar’s Amir met Donald Trump to review de-escalation efforts. A separate report dated August 5 said the United States and Iran were reportedly near an interim deal in the Strait of Hormuz. On August 7, “Renewed blockade in the Strait of Hormuz disrupts dry-bulk crossings” and “No oil tankers loaded at Iran’s Kharg Island for a week amid US blockade” described shipping disruption and a halt in Kharg Island loadings. On August 8, U.S. Central Command was reported to have redirected 53 commercial vessels, and Iran said the Strait would remain closed until the United States met six demands. Earlier reports said CENTCOM had redirected 45 vessels by August 5 and 49 on August 6; on August 5, CENTCOM also said the Strait’s southern route remained open. On August 19, Donald Trump halted U.S. negotiations with Iran over nuclear demands as Qatar’s foreign ministry urged both countries to reopen Hormuz. On August 30, event descriptions reported U.S. strikes on Iranian missile launchers and IRGC missile launches at U.S. vessels; their shared date does not establish sequence. On September 7, Iran and Oman were described as preparing or agreeing on a shipping corridor, while a U.S. official said the Strait was under Navy control; on September 8, “Kpler reports sharp drop in Strait of Hormuz shipping” described reduced traffic.
Footnotes[1][2][3][6][8][11][12][14]Assessment
The central contest joined passage through Hormuz to the terms for ending hostilities: U.S. vessel redirections and sanctions, Iran’s stated closure conditions, competing claims about whether a route remained open, military signaling, and diplomatic contacts all appear in the dated accounts. The August 12 description of a 60-day ceasefire extension sits alongside the IRGC’s statement that its Hormuz policy was unchanged; Iran’s August 13 rejection of progress on extending the ceasefire makes the description insufficient to establish an implemented, mutually accepted extension. The September 7 corridor accounts describe preparation or agreement, not confirmed operational passage, and the Navy-control statement does not resolve Kpler’s September 8 report of sharply reduced shipping. The August 30 strike and missile-launch descriptions share a date but establish neither sequence nor causation; the September 13 tanker-attack descriptions also differ over attribution. Houthi–Saudi/Yemen fighting appears as a distinct regional-security strand, but the events do not establish that Iran directed those incidents. The dated accounts establish neither an agreed settlement nor a settled status for passage through Hormuz.
Footnotes[3][7][8][11][4][5][12][10][13]Explanation originally captured 2026-11-07 · Evidence through 2026-11-08 UTC · Source edition sed_7a4578e3ddc1df883aa054d8d748f125
What informs this explanation
- Complete retained Story and Event membership
- Daily reporting and coded-occurrence time steps
- Event taxonomies, metrics, units, and denominators
- Canonical Entities and recorded actor/target bindings
- Typed reporting, membership, and incident edges
- Changes against the preceding retained edition
- Permitted macro, public-record, and asset facts only when they were retained with an explicit source and observation date
Quantitative
Evidence in numbers
- Scope
A 98-day Situation represented by 1,012 coded Events carried across 2,280 member Stories.
- Coded activity
The coded activity is led by 01 · Make Public Statement (157) and 111 · Criticize or Denounce (106).
- Prominent subjects
Donald Trump, Houthis, and United States are prominent in the retained actor and relationship evidence.
- Entity coverage
2,286 canonical Entities are linked to this edition.
Metric coverage. 1,012 coded Events · 861 CAMEO+ · 151 conflict. The four dimensions describe the CAMEO+ subset; conflict Events do not carry these scores.
Magnitude3.5
min 1max 9
Systemic importance0.23
min 0.03max 0.92
Propagation potential0.36
min 0max 0.87
Market sensitivity0.1
min 0.05max 0.8
Dot = mean · shaded span = observed range · position uses each metric’s defined scale.
All 8 scores, distributions & definitions
How the coder scored the full retained Event set
1012 coded events — 861 CAMEO+ (794 political) · 151 conflict
- Significance · 10120.33min 0.08max 0.77
- Magnitude · 8613.5min 1max 9
- Systemic · 8610.23min 0.03max 0.92
- Propagation · 8610.36min 0max 0.87
- Market · 8610.1min 0.05max 0.8
- Goldstein · 945-1.7min -10max 10
- Fatalities · 1510min 0max 7
- Confidence · 10120.71min 0.28max 0.98
Quad class over those 945 events · Verbal Cooperation 465 · Verbal Conflict 285 · Material Conflict 183 · Material Cooperation 12. 67 sit outside POLITICAL, where Goldstein and quad class are undefined. The four CAMEO+ scores are over the 861 CAMEO+ events only; the 151 conflict events have no such column.
Magnitude
861 measured / 861 eligible · 0 missing · 151 not applicable
score (0 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 861 of 1012 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Systemic
861 measured / 861 eligible · 0 missing · 151 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 861 of 1012 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Propagation
861 measured / 861 eligible · 0 missing · 151 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 861 of 1012 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Market
861 measured / 861 eligible · 0 missing · 151 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 861 of 1012 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Goldstein
945 measured / 945 eligible · 0 missing · 67 not applicable
score (-10 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 945 of 1012 events Goldstein is defined on — CAMEO+ POLITICAL and the conflict family; the other nine CAMEO+ domains have no Goldstein semantics
Fatalities
151 measured / 151 eligible · 0 missing · 861 not applicable
reported people · Reports may overlap; these are Event-level reports, not an additive unique human toll.
across the 151 of 1012 events that report a toll — the conflict family only, and never 0 on a CAMEO+ event
Confidence
1012 measured / 1012 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 1012 events
This retained edition, independent of graph and page limits. Different dimensions, not a blended risk score; reported tolls may overlap.
Day by day98 reporting days · click a day to open or close it
2026-11-08from the recordslatest
US forces strike Iranian air defenses on Qeshm Island
14 Stories and 2 coded Events (-8 / -2 against the day before). Widest coverage: US military fires on commercial vessel attempting to breach Gulf of Oman blockade (26 articles). Recorded acting: United States.
- 14-8
- Stories · vs day before
- 2-2
- Events · vs day before
- 100
- articles
The lay of the land
Situation timeline
All 98 daysarticlesstoriesevents
08-0308-2209-1109-3010-2011-08
Loading Situation timeline…
What kind of event · 142 coded types
over 1012 coded events on this edition
- Political794
- 01 · Make Public Statement157
- 111 · Criticize or Denounce106
- 046 · Engage in Negotiation37
- 1384 · Threaten Conventional Attack23
- 051 · Praise or Endorse20
- 13 · Threaten17
- 02 · Appeal16
Countries · where it happened
Countries · who is acting
Salient structure
What holds this Situation together
Selected from the complete retained edition
Key threads
Key actors
- DT
RuleDonald Trump
Recorded as actor and target in 145 coded Events, including Trump expands Iran sanctions against 60 entities.
Recorded as actor and target in 145 coded Events, including Trump expands Iran sanctions against 60 entities.
Footnotes[?][?][?][?][?] - H
RuleHouthis
Recorded as target and actor in 35 coded Events, including Houthis announce attack targeting Saudi air base in Khamis Mushait.
Recorded as target and actor in 35 coded Events, including Houthis announce attack targeting Saudi air base in Khamis Mushait.
Footnotes[?][?][?][?][?] - 🇺🇸
RuleUnited States
Recorded as actor and target in 177 coded Events, including United States strikes Iranian government tankers amid escalation.
Recorded as actor and target in 177 coded Events, including United States strikes Iranian government tankers amid escalation.
Footnotes[?][?][?][?][?] - UN
RuleUnited Nations
Recorded as actor and target in 7 coded Events, including Venezuelan delegation demands predictable health-system financing at UN.
Recorded as actor and target in 7 coded Events, including Venezuelan delegation demands predictable health-system financing at UN.
Footnotes[?][?][?][?][?] - 🇮🇷
RuleIran
Recorded as target and actor in 193 coded Events, including Iran says Oman deal in final stages, calls on US to open Strait of Hormuz.
Recorded as target and actor in 193 coded Events, including Iran says Oman deal in final stages, calls on US to open Strait of Hormuz.
Footnotes[?][?][?][?][?]
Key Events
RuleIsraeli Air Force scrambles fighters after Flydubai alert
2026-09-30 · POLITICAL
2026-09-30 · POLITICAL
RuleUnited States strikes Iranian government tankers amid escalation
2026-09-01 · POLITICAL
2026-09-01 · POLITICAL
RuleIran says Oman deal in final stages, calls on US to open Strait of Hormuz
2026-08-10 · POLITICAL
2026-08-10 · POLITICAL
RuleKpler reports sharp drop in Strait of Hormuz shipping
2026-09-08 · INFRASTRUCTURE
2026-09-08 · INFRASTRUCTURE
RuleUS Treasury sanctions Turkish bank over Iran-linked transactions
2026-09-04 · POLITICAL
2026-09-04 · POLITICAL
Additional recorded participants
Non-central actors and targets retained from coded Events. A later analysis may identify an evidenced relationship as notable.
- 🇸🇦
recorded participationRuleSaudi Arabia
Recorded as target and actor across 30 coded Events, including Saudi Arabia shuts East-West pipeline, squeezing Asian crude imports.
Recorded as target and actor across 30 coded Events, including Saudi Arabia shuts East-West pipeline, squeezing Asian crude imports.
Footnotes[?][?][?][?][?] - MP
recorded participationRuleMasoud Pezeshkian
Recorded as actor and target across 24 coded Events, including Putin meets Pezeshkian to discuss expanding Russia-Iran cooperation.
Recorded as actor and target across 24 coded Events, including Putin meets Pezeshkian to discuss expanding Russia-Iran cooperation.
Footnotes[?][?][?][?][?] - BN
recorded participationRuleBenjamin Netanyahu
Recorded as actor and target across 18 coded Events, including Netanyahu threatens Iran with an unimaginable strike.
Recorded as actor and target across 18 coded Events, including Netanyahu threatens Iran with an unimaginable strike.
Footnotes[?][?][?][?][?] - 🇶🇦
recorded participationRuleQatar
Recorded as actor and target across 15 coded Events, including United States sends Patriot batteries to Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
Recorded as actor and target across 15 coded Events, including United States sends Patriot batteries to Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
Footnotes[?][?][?][?][?] - VP
recorded participationRuleVladimir Putin
Recorded as target and actor across 14 coded Events, including Radosław Sikorski warns Vladimir Putin over possible sanctions.
Recorded as target and actor across 14 coded Events, including Radosław Sikorski warns Vladimir Putin over possible sanctions.
Footnotes[?][?][?][?][?]
How a Situation is put together2,280 Stories · 1,012 Events · 2,280 membership connections · 28,657 graph edges
A retained time step
This edition freezes the complete served membership and analysis available through its UTC cutoff. Later repairs or identity changes do not rewrite what this edition showed.
Stories, Events, and cast
Stories are reporting clusters. Events are coded occurrences within that reporting. The cast contains 2,286 canonical people and organizations linked to the retained evidence.
Typed connections
Story-to-Event edges identify supporting reporting. Entity-to-Event edges identify recorded actor or target participation. Mentions and analytical roles stay visibly distinct from recorded participation.
Core, precursor, and continuation labels organize the reading. They do not by themselves establish causation. Collapsed graph groups and paginated evidence change presentation only; counts use the complete retained edition.