Significance
34 measured / 34 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 34 events
SituationIraq +3
Iraq announced closure of International Coalition headquarters on September 25; the next day, “Iraq to close US-led coalition headquarters by September 30, ending foreign bases” and “Iraq says no foreign military bases will remain after September 30” reported the deadline and Iraq’s position. On September 29, U.S. troops withdrew from a Baghdad base, while Italy completed its withdrawal from Iraq; “US troops complete withdrawal from Baghdad base after two decades” reported the U.S. milestone. On September 30, the United States marked a mission-and-withdrawal milestone at Erbil, the Netherlands ended its contribution to Operation Inherent Resolve, and Iraq marked the coalition mission’s end; “US forces complete withdrawal from Iraq after 23 years” and “US-led coalition ends its mission in Iraq” describe distinct parts of that transition. On October 1, Germany withdrew its last troops, while Kataib Hezbollah announced a suspension of military activities and Iraqi officials described disarmament deadlines; “Germany withdraws its last troops from Iraq after 11-year presence,” “Kataib Hezbollah halts military operations in Iraq, except attacks on violating aircraft,” and “Iraq sets June 2027 deadline to disarm all armed groups” document those separate developments. Iraq later said no U.S. troops, including advisers, remained and set a deadline for armed factions to disarm.
Footnotes[38][18][19][26][21][17][22][24][36][14][16][25]The transition comprises distinct facility, troop, and mission milestones: “US forces complete withdrawal from Iraq after 23 years” and “US concludes military mission in Iraq after decade-long fight against ISIS” use different descriptions, while separate Events date the Baghdad-base withdrawal to September 29 and the Erbil milestone to September 30. Iraq’s weapons-control effort is a separate policy track: reported pledges, Kataib Hezbollah’s suspension announcement, stated deadlines, and later Sinjar accounts do not establish that armed factions broadly disarmed. The Sinjar accounts describe integration of Sinjar Protection Units, a plan concerning YBS, a separate Event saying YBŞ placed its weapons under Iraqi state control, and later accounts of fighter absorption and objections. They do not establish settled legal or operational arrangements. Baghdad’s statement that Sinjar security falls under federal authority names the Kurdistan Regional Government as its target, but does not establish settled arrangements. The October 11 Iraqi Air Force strike on an ISIS hideout in Diyala is a separate action; its date and the subsequent “Iraq steps up airstrikes against ISIS remnants after US withdrawal” headline do not establish that the coalition withdrawal caused increased ISIS activity. No before-and-after change claims are established here.
Footnotes[14][15][26][22][13][11][9][10][29][31][37][32]Explanation originally captured 2026-11-14 · Evidence through 2026-11-15 UTC · Source edition sed_6827f5d81a8f720f0fc378d3c55792a5
A 35-day Situation represented by 34 coded Events carried across 95 member Stories.
The coded activity is led by 01 · Make Public Statement (8) and 0874 · Retreat/surrender (5).
Donald Trump, Fouad Hussein, and Government of the Kurdistan Region are prominent in the retained actor and relationship evidence.
173 canonical Entities are linked to this edition.
Metric coverage. 34 coded Events · 31 CAMEO+ · 3 conflict. The four dimensions describe the CAMEO+ subset; conflict Events do not carry these scores.
Dot = mean · shaded span = observed range · position uses each metric’s defined scale.
How the coder scored the full retained Event set
34 coded events — 31 CAMEO+ (31 political) · 3 conflict
Quad class over those 34 events · Verbal Cooperation 18 · Material Cooperation 6 · Material Conflict 5 · Verbal Conflict 5. The four CAMEO+ scores are over the 31 CAMEO+ events only; the 3 conflict events have no such column.
34 measured / 34 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 34 events
31 measured / 31 eligible · 0 missing · 3 not applicable
score (0 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 31 of 34 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
31 measured / 31 eligible · 0 missing · 3 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 31 of 34 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
31 measured / 31 eligible · 0 missing · 3 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 31 of 34 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
31 measured / 31 eligible · 0 missing · 3 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 31 of 34 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
34 measured / 34 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (-10 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 34 of 34 events Goldstein is defined on — CAMEO+ POLITICAL and the conflict family; the other nine CAMEO+ domains have no Goldstein semantics
3 measured / 3 eligible · 0 missing · 31 not applicable
reported people · Reports may overlap; these are Event-level reports, not an additive unique human toll.
across the 3 of 34 events that report a toll — the conflict family only, and never 0 on a CAMEO+ event
34 measured / 34 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 34 events
This retained edition, independent of graph and page limits. Different dimensions, not a blended risk score; reported tolls may overlap.
2026-10-28from the recordslatest
Baghdad says Sinjar security is federal matter after Erbil objects
2 Stories and 1 coded Event (-2 / +1 against the day before). Widest coverage: Baghdad says Sinjar security is federal matter after Erbil objects (1 articles). Recorded acting: Government of the Kurdistan Region.
What kind of event · 19 coded types
over 34 coded events on this edition
Countries · where it happened
Countries · who is acting
Selected from the complete retained edition
Iraq’s headquarters announcement was followed by separate U.S., Italian, Dutch, and German withdrawal or mission-end milestones.
Accounts distinguish a reported integration of Sinjar Protection Units, a plan concerning YBS, and Baghdad’s statement on federal authority.
Iraq ordered higher security readiness, held a security-cooperation meeting with a U.S. official, and conducted a separately dated strike against an ISIS hideout.
Donald Trump said U.S. troops could return to Iraq if needed, praised Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi, and said the United States would not abandon its allies.





Evidenced relationships involving significant participants beyond the central cast.
The Event names Donald Trump as the actor making the statement.
The Event names Fouad Hussein as actor and Michael Needham as target.
The Event names the Kurdistan Regional Government as target; the linked Entity is the Government of the Kurdistan Region.
This edition freezes the complete served membership and analysis available through its UTC cutoff. Later repairs or identity changes do not rewrite what this edition showed.
Stories are reporting clusters. Events are coded occurrences within that reporting. The cast contains 173 canonical people and organizations linked to the retained evidence.
Story-to-Event edges identify supporting reporting. Entity-to-Event edges identify recorded actor or target participation. Mentions and analytical roles stay visibly distinct from recorded participation.
Core, precursor, and continuation labels organize the reading. They do not by themselves establish causation. Collapsed graph groups and paginated evidence change presentation only; counts use the complete retained edition.