Significance
10 measured / 10 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 10 events
Connected Situation / Through 2026-10-31
Cuba Embargo Resolution and International Responses
- stories
- 9
- events
- 10
- entities
- 40
- connections
- 9
Evidence so far on 2026-10-31 UTC · updated 2026-10-31 12:23 UTC · analysis as of 2026-10-31 10:28 UTCSign in for the live Situation ↗
Narrative
As-of analysis
Situation at a glance
The 29 October story “Morocco and North Macedonia oppose UN resolution to lift US embargo on Cuba” reports opposition to the resolution, while “Mike Waltz secures record-low UN support for Cuba's anti-US resolution” describes the UN support as record-low. On 29 October, the United States announced a planned expulsion of a Cuban diplomat, and Miguel Díaz-Canel said Cuba would not yield to U.S. pressure. That day, the Russian Foreign Ministry pledged continued support for Cuba, while Venezuela condemned the United States over the blockade. On 30 October, a Cuban ambassador in Brazil praised support for ending the blockade. Also reported on 30 October, “Chile opposition condemns Kast for breaking decades-long stance on Cuba embargo” accompanies Gonzalo Winter’s criticism of José Antonio Kast over Chile’s Cuba vote.
Footnotes[4][1][7][8][14][15][13][3][16]Assessment
These accounts show both opposition to the resolution and support for ending the blockade, alongside the headline’s characterization of UN support as record-low; they do not provide a vote tally. The events include diplomatic threats and statements, pledges, praise and political criticism, not evidence of physical conflict. The criticism over votes or abstentions in Argentina, Greece, Trinidad and Tobago, Peru and Chile represents distinct national exchanges, not an established coordinated response.
Footnotes[4][1][13][7][8][14][15][11][9][10][12][16]Explanation originally captured 2026-10-31 · Evidence through 2026-10-31 UTC · Source edition sed_07b867630d6197b52919435559bd870d
What informs this explanation
- Complete retained Story and Event membership
- Daily reporting and coded-occurrence time steps
- Event taxonomies, metrics, units, and denominators
- Canonical Entities and recorded actor/target bindings
- Typed reporting, membership, and incident edges
- Changes against the preceding retained edition
- Permitted macro, public-record, and asset facts only when they were retained with an explicit source and observation date
Quantitative
Evidence in numbers
- Scope
A 4-day Situation represented by 10 coded Events carried across 9 member Stories.
- Coded activity
The coded activity is led by 111 · Criticize or Denounce (4) and 032 · Intent for Diplomatic Cooperation (1).
- Prominent subjects
Miguel Díaz-Canel and José Antonio Kast are prominent in the retained actor and relationship evidence.
- Entity coverage
40 canonical Entities are linked to this edition.
Metric coverage. 10 coded Events · 10 CAMEO+ · 0 conflict. The four dimensions describe the CAMEO+ subset; conflict Events do not carry these scores.
Magnitude4
min 2max 6
Systemic importance0.1
min 0.08max 0.12
Propagation potential0.29
min 0.26max 0.34
Market sensitivity0.05
min 0.05max 0.05
Dot = mean · shaded span = observed range · position uses each metric’s defined scale.
All 7 scores, distributions & definitions
How the coder scored the full retained Event set
10 coded events — 10 CAMEO+ (10 political)
- Significance · 100.32min 0.25max 0.46
- Magnitude · 104min 2max 6
- Systemic · 100.1min 0.08max 0.12
- Propagation · 100.29min 0.26max 0.34
- Market · 100.05min 0.05max 0.05
- Goldstein · 10-1.7min -5.8max 4
- Confidence · 100.77min 0.42max 0.88
Quad class over those 10 events · Verbal Conflict 8 · Verbal Cooperation 2. No conflict-family event here, so nothing carries a fatality count — a missing column, not a toll of zero.
Magnitude
10 measured / 10 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 10 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Systemic
10 measured / 10 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 10 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Propagation
10 measured / 10 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 10 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Market
10 measured / 10 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 10 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Goldstein
10 measured / 10 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (-10 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 10 of 10 events Goldstein is defined on — CAMEO+ POLITICAL and the conflict family; the other nine CAMEO+ domains have no Goldstein semantics
Confidence
10 measured / 10 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 10 events
This retained edition, independent of graph and page limits. Different dimensions, not a blended risk score; reported tolls may overlap.
Day by day4 reporting days · click a day to open or close it
2026-10-31from the recordslatest
Jamaica government leader rejects claim opposition was misled on Cuba motion
3 Stories and 0 coded Events (0 / -1 against the day before). Widest coverage: Jamaica government leader rejects claim opposition was misled on Cuba motion (2 articles).
- 30
- Stories · vs day before
- 0-1
- Events · vs day before
- 4
- articles
The lay of the land
Situation timeline
Threads
All 4 daysarticlesstoriesevents
10-2810-2910-3010-31
Loading Situation timeline…
What kind of event · 7 coded types
over 10 coded events on this edition
- Political10
- 111 · Criticize or Denounce4
- 032 · Intent for Diplomatic Cooperation1
- 051 · Praise or Endorse1
- 10 · Demand1
- 112 · Accuse1
- 124 · Refuse to Yield1
- 1313 · Threaten to Break Relations1
Countries · who is acting
Salient structure
What holds this Situation together
Selected from the complete retained edition
Key threads
- core
AnalystUN resolution and national voting positions
The resolution coverage reports opposition to the measure and includes events about the planned U.S. expulsion, Díaz-Canel’s statement, and criticism over national voting positions. The later record-low-support story addresses the same resolution.
- development
AnalystCalls against the blockade
Venezuela’s condemnation and the African Group’s call address the Cuba blockade; both are connected to the UN resolution coverage.
- development
AnalystRussia’s stated support for Cuba
The Russian Foreign Ministry pledged continued diplomatic support for Cuba, in a story reported on the same date as coverage of record-low UN support.
- development
AnalystChile’s domestic reaction to its Cuba vote
The Chile opposition story reports criticism of Kast over the Cuba embargo position; Gonzalo Winter is named as the critic in the linked Event.
Key actors
- MD
- JK
Key Events
contextAnalystUnited States announces planned expulsion of Cuban diplomat
On 29 October, the United States announced a planned expulsion of a Cuban diplomat; the Event describes a threat to break relations, not a completed expulsion.
On 29 October, the United States announced a planned expulsion of a Cuban diplomat; the Event describes a threat to break relations, not a completed expulsion.
Footnotes[7]contextAnalystMiguel Díaz-Canel says Cuba will not yield to U.S. pressure
On 29 October, Miguel Díaz-Canel said Cuba would not yield to U.S. pressure.
On 29 October, Miguel Díaz-Canel said Cuba would not yield to U.S. pressure.
Footnotes[8]
contextAnalystRussian Foreign Ministry pledges continued support for Cuba on embargo
On 29 October, the Russian Foreign Ministry pledged continued diplomatic support for Cuba.
On 29 October, the Russian Foreign Ministry pledged continued diplomatic support for Cuba.
Footnotes[14]
contextAnalystVenezuela condemns the United States over Cuba blockade
On 29 October, Venezuela condemned the United States over the Cuba blockade.
On 29 October, Venezuela condemned the United States over the Cuba blockade.
Footnotes[15]
contextAnalystGonzalo Winter condemns Kast over Chile’s Cuba embargo vote
On 29 October, Gonzalo Winter criticized José Antonio Kast over Chile’s Cuba embargo vote.
On 29 October, Gonzalo Winter criticized José Antonio Kast over Chile’s Cuba embargo vote.
Footnotes[16]
Notable connections
Evidenced relationships involving significant participants beyond the central cast.
Miguel Díaz-Canel is the actor in the Event. · recorded participationAnalystMiguel Díaz-Canel says Cuba will not yield to U.S. pressure → Miguel Díaz-Canel
The Event names Miguel Díaz-Canel as its source actor, and the Entity lists him as an actor in that Event.
José Antonio Kast is the target of the Event. · recorded participationAnalystGonzalo Winter condemns Kast over Chile’s Cuba embargo vote → José Antonio Kast
The Event names José Antonio Kast as its target, and the Entity lists him as a target in that Event.
The resolution story is linked to the Event about the planned U.S. expulsion announcement. · reporting linkAnalystMorocco and North Macedonia oppose UN resolution to lift US embargo on Cuba → United States announces planned expulsion of Cuban diplomat
The Event lists the resolution story among its linked Stories.
The Russia support story is linked to the Russian Foreign Ministry pledge Event. · reporting linkAnalystRussia pledges support for Cuba against US sanctions → Russian Foreign Ministry pledges continued support for Cuba on embargo
The Event lists the Russia support story among its linked Stories.
The stories are linked as covering the same UN resolution event. · analytical connectionAnalystMike Waltz secures record-low UN support for Cuba's anti-US resolution → Morocco and North Macedonia oppose UN resolution to lift US embargo on Cuba
The supplied Story edge identifies the stories as duplicates because they share an Event.
How a Situation is put together9 Stories · 10 Events · 9 membership connections · 75 graph edges
A retained time step
This edition freezes the complete served membership and analysis available through its UTC cutoff. Later repairs or identity changes do not rewrite what this edition showed.
Stories, Events, and cast
Stories are reporting clusters. Events are coded occurrences within that reporting. The cast contains 40 canonical people and organizations linked to the retained evidence.
Typed connections
Story-to-Event edges identify supporting reporting. Entity-to-Event edges identify recorded actor or target participation. Mentions and analytical roles stay visibly distinct from recorded participation.
Core, precursor, and continuation labels organize the reading. They do not by themselves establish causation. Collapsed graph groups and paginated evidence change presentation only; counts use the complete retained edition.