Significance
65 measured / 65 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 65 events
Connected Situation / Through 2026-10-25
Venezuela’s Contested Electoral Transition
- stories
- 134
- events
- 65
- entities
- 278
- connections
- 134
Frozen through 2026-10-25 UTC · published 2026-10-25 21:25 UTC · analysis as of 2026-10-25 07:27 UTCSign in for the live Situation ↗
Narrative
As-of analysis
Situation at a glance
On September 23, Delcy Rodríguez said elections would be held at the United Nations, and Venezuela’s parliament backed her participation there; “Venezuela’s interim leader tells UN elections will be held” and “Venezuelan parliament backs Rodríguez's participation at the United Nations” report those developments. The next day, Rodríguez said voters would decide the timing but gave no date, as “Delcy Rodríguez delivers her first speech to the UN as Venezuela’s acting president” reports. On September 26, Donald Trump discussed elections with Rodríguez, according to “Trump discusses Venezuelan elections with Delcy Rodríguez.” Opposition pressure continued: Machado supporters rallied in La Guaira on September 27 for elections and her safe return, and families of political prisoners protested for releases on September 29. On October 22, Rodríguez received opposition leader Dinorah Figuera. Vente Venezuela’s demand for a 2027 timetable was reported with the opposition march on October 23; “Venezuelan opposition leader Dinorah Figuera meets Delcy Rodríguez in dialogue round” and “Venezuelan opposition marches to back Machado's 2027 presidential bid” report these developments. On October 23, Venezuelan authorities released seven opposition march detainees, as the latter Story also reports.
Footnotes[31][18][30][17][40][16][25][15][28][13][37][11]Assessment
Rodríguez’s election pledge and her statement that voters would set the timing establish a public commitment, not an election date. Trump’s discussion with Rodríguez, Marco Rubio’s statement that the United States was working with Venezuela’s 2015 Assembly, and Rodríguez’s meeting with Figuera establish distinct contacts, but do not establish an agreed timetable or completed electoral process. Vente Venezuela’s demand for a 2027 timetable and the protests show continuing opposition pressure; reports dated September 27 and 28 described the release of 39 political prisoners, while the seven opposition march detainees released on October 23 were a separate episode, not part of that figure. The U.S. Department of State praised dialogue progress, cited more than 1,000 freed prisoners and demanded further releases; those attributed claims do not establish that political-prisoner concerns were resolved. Machado’s reported plan to return and supporters’ calls for her safe return do not establish that she returned, while the reported flight refusal remains an allegation.
Footnotes[31][40][25][42][38][22][28][36][24][26][3][23]Explanation originally captured 2026-10-25 · Evidence through 2026-10-25 UTC · Source edition sed_58762d1b88e71fe709e8cd2dae6f4fbe
What informs this explanation
- Complete retained Story and Event membership
- Daily reporting and coded-occurrence time steps
- Event taxonomies, metrics, units, and denominators
- Canonical Entities and recorded actor/target bindings
- Typed reporting, membership, and incident edges
- Changes against the preceding retained edition
- Permitted macro, public-record, and asset facts only when they were retained with an explicit source and observation date
Quantitative
Evidence in numbers
- Scope
A 35-day Situation represented by 65 coded Events carried across 134 member Stories.
- Coded activity
The coded activity is led by 01 · Make Public Statement (8) and PEACEFUL PROTEST (7).
- Prominent subjects
Delcy Rodríguez, Donald Trump, and María Corina Machado are prominent in the retained actor and relationship evidence.
- Entity coverage
278 canonical Entities are linked to this edition.
Metric coverage. 65 coded Events · 56 CAMEO+ · 9 conflict. The four dimensions describe the CAMEO+ subset; conflict Events do not carry these scores.
Magnitude2.5
min 1max 6
Systemic importance0.13
min 0.07max 0.67
Propagation potential0.26
min 0max 0.38
Market sensitivity0.05
min 0.05max 0.3
Dot = mean · shaded span = observed range · position uses each metric’s defined scale.
All 8 scores, distributions & definitions
How the coder scored the full retained Event set
65 coded events — 56 CAMEO+ (55 political) · 9 conflict
- Significance · 650.25min 0.11max 0.47
- Magnitude · 562.5min 1max 6
- Systemic · 560.13min 0.07max 0.67
- Propagation · 560.26min 0max 0.38
- Market · 560.05min 0.05max 0.3
- Goldstein · 640.5min -7.5max 7
- Fatalities · 90min 0max 0
- Confidence · 650.73min 0.34max 0.98
Quad class over those 64 events · Verbal Cooperation 42 · Verbal Conflict 15 · Material Cooperation 5 · Material Conflict 2. 1 sit outside POLITICAL, where Goldstein and quad class are undefined. The four CAMEO+ scores are over the 56 CAMEO+ events only; the 9 conflict events have no such column.
Magnitude
56 measured / 56 eligible · 0 missing · 9 not applicable
score (0 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 56 of 65 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Systemic
56 measured / 56 eligible · 0 missing · 9 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 56 of 65 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Propagation
56 measured / 56 eligible · 0 missing · 9 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 56 of 65 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Market
56 measured / 56 eligible · 0 missing · 9 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 56 of 65 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Goldstein
64 measured / 64 eligible · 0 missing · 1 not applicable
score (-10 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 64 of 65 events Goldstein is defined on — CAMEO+ POLITICAL and the conflict family; the other nine CAMEO+ domains have no Goldstein semantics
Fatalities
9 measured / 9 eligible · 0 missing · 56 not applicable
reported people · Reports may overlap; these are Event-level reports, not an additive unique human toll.
across the 9 of 65 events that report a toll — the conflict family only, and never 0 on a CAMEO+ event
Confidence
65 measured / 65 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 65 events
This retained edition, independent of graph and page limits. Different dimensions, not a blended risk score; reported tolls may overlap.
Day by day28 reporting days · click a day to open or close it
2026-10-25from the recordslatest
Donald Trump says he knows little of Machado's return
4 Stories and 2 coded Events (-3 / +1 against the day before). Widest coverage: María Corina confirms her return to Venezuela: ‘I’m here. With you’ (193 articles). Recorded acting: Donald Trump, María Corina Machado.
- 4-3
- Stories · vs day before
- 2+1
- Events · vs day before
- 198
- articles
The lay of the land
Situation timeline
Threads
All 28 daysarticlesstoriesevents
09-2109-2610-0210-0710-1310-25
Loading Situation timeline…
What kind of event · 29 coded types
over 65 coded events on this edition
- Political55
- 01 · Make Public Statement8
- 042 · Make A Visit6
- 043 · Host A Visit5
- 051 · Praise or Endorse4
- 013 · Optimistic Comment3
- 04 · Consult3
- 05 · Engage in Diplomatic Cooperation3
Countries · where it happened
Countries · who is acting
Salient structure
What holds this Situation together
Selected from the complete retained edition
Key threads
- core
AnalystElection commitment, timetable and dialogue
Rodríguez pledged elections but gave no date. Contacts involving Trump, Rubio and Figuera did not establish an agreed timetable.
- core
AnalystMachado’s unresolved return and opposition pressure
Machado’s reported plan to return and the reported flight obstacle remain unresolved. Supporters and opposition groups pressed for elections and her return.
- development
AnalystPrisoner releases and continuing demands
Venezuelan authorities released 39 political prisoners on September 28 and seven opposition march detainees on October 23. Families protested for releases, and the U.S. Department of State also demanded releases.
- development
AnalystInternational and institutional contacts
Rodríguez met UNHCR chief Barham Salih and Dominican President Luis Abinader. These contacts are distinct from evidence of an electoral outcome.
Key actors
- DR
AnalystDelcy Rodríguez
Delcy Rodríguez pledged elections and said voters would decide the timing. She discussed elections with Donald Trump and received Dinorah Figuera.
- DT
- MM
AnalystMaría Corina Machado
María Corina Machado was the subject of Trump’s comment about her prospective return. A Story reports that she planned to return.
- MR
- DF
Key Events
contextAnalystVenezuela’s interim leader says elections will be held
On September 23, Rodríguez said elections would be held at the United Nations; “Venezuela’s interim leader tells UN elections will be held” reports her statement.
contextAnalystVenezuela's interim president says voters will decide election timing
On September 24, Rodríguez said voters would decide election timing and gave no date; “Delcy Rodríguez delivers her first speech to the UN as Venezuela’s acting president” reports her remarks.
contextAnalystTrump discusses Venezuelan elections with Delcy Rodríguez
On September 26, Donald Trump discussed Venezuelan elections with Rodríguez; “Trump discusses Venezuelan elections with Delcy Rodríguez” reports the discussion.
contextAnalystMachado supporters rally in La Guaira for elections and her return
On September 27, Machado supporters rallied in La Guaira for elections and her safe return; “Venezuelans rally for free elections and María Corina Machado’s safe return” reports the rally.
contextAnalystVenezuelan authorities release 39 political prisoners
On September 28, Venezuelan authorities released 39 political prisoners; “Venezuela releases dozens of political prisoners as election calls grow” reports the release.
Notable connections
Evidenced relationships involving significant participants beyond the central cast.
Donald Trump discussed Venezuelan elections with Delcy Rodríguez on September 26. · recorded participationAnalystDonald Trump → Delcy Rodríguez
The Event identifies Trump as actor and Rodríguez as target.
The Event identifies Trump as actor and Rodríguez as target.
Footnotes[25]Delcy Rodríguez received opposition leader Dinorah Figuera on October 22. · recorded participationAnalystDelcy Rodríguez → Dinorah Figuera
The Event identifies Rodríguez as actor and Figuera as target.
The Event identifies Rodríguez as actor and Figuera as target.
Footnotes[38]Delcy Rodríguez met Barham Salih in Caracas on October 3. · recorded participationAnalystDelcy Rodríguez → Barham Salih
The Event identifies Rodríguez as actor and Salih as target.
The Event identifies Rodríguez as actor and Salih as target.
Footnotes[29]Donald Trump commented on María Corina Machado’s prospective return to Venezuela. · recorded participationAnalystDonald Trump → María Corina Machado
The Event identifies Trump as actor and Machado as target; it does not establish that she returned.
António Guterres received Venezuela’s acting president at the United Nations on September 22. · recorded participationAnalystAntónio Guterres → António Guterres receives Venezuela's acting president at UN
The Event identifies Guterres as actor and Venezuela’s acting president as target.
How a Situation is put together134 Stories · 65 Events · 134 membership connections · 1,231 graph edges
A retained time step
This edition freezes the complete served membership and analysis available through its UTC cutoff. Later repairs or identity changes do not rewrite what this edition showed.
Stories, Events, and cast
Stories are reporting clusters. Events are coded occurrences within that reporting. The cast contains 278 canonical people and organizations linked to the retained evidence.
Typed connections
Story-to-Event edges identify supporting reporting. Entity-to-Event edges identify recorded actor or target participation. Mentions and analytical roles stay visibly distinct from recorded participation.
Core, precursor, and continuation labels organize the reading. They do not by themselves establish causation. Collapsed graph groups and paginated evidence change presentation only; counts use the complete retained edition.