Significance
1 measured / 1 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 1 events
Connected Situation / Through 2026-11-09
Israel’s Election and Government Formation
- stories
- 3
- events
- 1
- entities
- 10
- connections
- 3
Evidence so far on 2026-11-09 UTC · updated 2026-11-09 09:20 UTC · analysis as of 2026-11-08 11:21 UTCSign in for the live Situation ↗
Narrative
As-of analysis
Situation at a glance
Israel’s election coverage reported 77% turnout, described as the highest since 1999, and no clear winner in “Israel election ends with 77% turnout, highest since 1999, with no clear winner” [story]. On Nov. 6, a report said the Israeli president was to name a prime-minister-designate on Nov. 8 in “Israeli president to name prime minister-designate to form government on Nov. 8” [story, entity]. On Nov. 8, the opposition was reported to have gained the mandate to form a government, threatening Benjamin Netanyahu’s rule, in “Israeli opposition gains mandate to form government, threatening Netanyahu’s rule” [story, entity]. Separately, an event dated Oct. 27 says the Central Elections Committee reported 16.7% turnout [event].
Footnotes[3][2][1][6][5][4]Assessment
Together, the election report and the later government-formation reports describe an inconclusive election followed by a planned presidential appointment and an opposition mandate; the planned appointment and mandate are linked to the election as consequences [story, connection]. The two turnout figures—16.7% on Oct. 27 and 77% in the Oct. 28 election report—are different, and these accounts do not reconcile them [event, story]. The Nov. 6 report says the Israeli president was to name a prime-minister-designate on Nov. 8, while the Nov. 8 headline says the opposition gained a mandate; neither establishes in these materials that a government was formed or identifies the designate [story, story].
Footnotes[3][2][1][4][11][12]Explanation originally captured 2026-11-08 · Evidence through 2026-11-09 UTC · Source edition sed_7210dccf84ad411b4222c551243ffec1
What informs this explanation
- Complete retained Story and Event membership
- Daily reporting and coded-occurrence time steps
- Event taxonomies, metrics, units, and denominators
- Canonical Entities and recorded actor/target bindings
- Typed reporting, membership, and incident edges
- Changes against the preceding retained edition
- Permitted macro, public-record, and asset facts only when they were retained with an explicit source and observation date
Quantitative
Evidence in numbers
- Scope
A 13-day Situation represented by 1 coded Event carried across 3 member Stories.
- Coded activity
The coded activity is led by 01 · Make Public Statement (1).
- Prominent subjects
🇮🇱Israel is prominent in the retained actor and relationship evidence.
- Entity coverage
10 canonical Entities are linked to this edition.
Metric coverage. 1 coded Events · 1 CAMEO+ · 0 conflict. The four dimensions describe the CAMEO+ subset; conflict Events do not carry these scores.
Magnitude3
min 3max 3
Systemic importance0.12
min 0.12max 0.12
Propagation potential0.34
min 0.34max 0.34
Market sensitivity0.05
min 0.05max 0.05
Dot = mean · shaded span = observed range · position uses each metric’s defined scale.
All 7 scores, distributions & definitions
How the coder scored the full retained Event set
1 coded event — 1 CAMEO+ (1 political)
- Significance · 10.19min 0.19max 0.19
- Magnitude · 13min 3max 3
- Systemic · 10.12min 0.12max 0.12
- Propagation · 10.34min 0.34max 0.34
- Market · 10.05min 0.05max 0.05
- Goldstein · 10min 0max 0
- Confidence · 10.88min 0.88max 0.88
Quad class over that 1 event · Verbal Cooperation 1. No conflict-family event here, so nothing carries a fatality count — a missing column, not a toll of zero.
Magnitude
1 measured / 1 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 1 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Systemic
1 measured / 1 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 1 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Propagation
1 measured / 1 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 1 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Market
1 measured / 1 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 1 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Goldstein
1 measured / 1 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (-10 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 1 of 1 events Goldstein is defined on — CAMEO+ POLITICAL and the conflict family; the other nine CAMEO+ domains have no Goldstein semantics
Confidence
1 measured / 1 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 1 events
This retained edition, independent of graph and page limits. Different dimensions, not a blended risk score; reported tolls may overlap.
Day by day4 reporting days · click a day to open or close it
2026-11-08analystlatest
Opposition mandate reported
The story reported that the opposition had gained a mandate to form a government, linking this development to the election [story, connection].
- 10
- Stories · vs day before
- 00
- Events · vs day before
- 1
- articles
The lay of the land
Situation timeline
Threads
All 4 daysarticlesstoriesevents
10-2710-2811-0611-08
Loading Situation timeline…
What kind of event · 1 coded type
over 1 coded event on this edition
- Political1
- 01 · Make Public Statement1
Countries · where it happened
Countries · who is acting
Salient structure
What holds this Situation together
Selected from the complete retained edition
Key threads
- core
AnalystElection and government formation
The election report and the two later government-formation reports form one thread: the appointment and opposition-mandate developments are linked to the election as consequences [story, connection].
Key actors
Key Events
contextAnalystIsrael's Central Elections Committee reports 16.7% turnout
On Oct. 27, the Central Elections Committee reported 16.7% turnout; the figure differs from the 77% reported in the Oct. 28 election story [event, story].
Notable connections
Evidenced relationships involving significant participants beyond the central cast.
The planned appointment is linked as a consequence of the election. · analytical connectionAnalystIsrael election ends with 77% turnout, highest since 1999, with no clear winner → Israeli president to name prime minister-designate to form government on Nov. 8
The appointment story is linked to the election story as a consequence [connection].
The opposition mandate is linked as a consequence of the election. · analytical connectionAnalystIsrael election ends with 77% turnout, highest since 1999, with no clear winner → Israeli opposition gains mandate to form government, threatening Netanyahu’s rule
The opposition-mandate story is linked to the election story as a consequence [connection].
The event is linked to the election story. · reporting linkAnalystIsrael's Central Elections Committee reports 16.7% turnout → Israel election ends with 77% turnout, highest since 1999, with no clear winner
The event lists the election story among its linked stories [event, story].
Isaac Herzog is mentioned in the appointment story. · reporting linkAnalystIsaac Herzog → Israeli president to name prime minister-designate to form government on Nov. 8
The story mentions Herzog, providing a named-person reference in appointment coverage whose headline identifies only the Israeli president; this link does not establish that Herzog was the president or participated in an Event [entity, story].
How a Situation is put together3 Stories · 1 Events · 3 membership connections · 16 graph edges
A retained time step
This edition freezes the complete served membership and analysis available through its UTC cutoff. Later repairs or identity changes do not rewrite what this edition showed.
Stories, Events, and cast
Stories are reporting clusters. Events are coded occurrences within that reporting. The cast contains 10 canonical people and organizations linked to the retained evidence.
Typed connections
Story-to-Event edges identify supporting reporting. Entity-to-Event edges identify recorded actor or target participation. Mentions and analytical roles stay visibly distinct from recorded participation.
Core, precursor, and continuation labels organize the reading. They do not by themselves establish causation. Collapsed graph groups and paginated evidence change presentation only; counts use the complete retained edition.