Significance
1 measured / 1 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 1 events
Connected Situation / Through 2026-11-09
Paraguay’s Impeachment and Presidential Transition
- stories
- 2
- events
- 1
- entities
- 2
- connections
- 2
Evidence so far on 2026-11-09 UTC · updated 2026-11-09 08:25 UTC · analysis as of 2026-11-07 12:26 UTCSign in for the live Situation ↗
Narrative
As-of analysis
Situation at a glance
On November 5, Basilio Núñez called for Santiago Peña to resign in Asunción. On November 6, the Senate of Paraguay removed Peña after an impeachment vote. Also on November 6, Pedro Alliana assumed Paraguay’s presidency and expressed intent to provide economic aid to Ueno bank customers; the event describes an intent, not aid delivered. On November 7, “Paraguay Senate approves Peña impeachment over banking crisis” reported the Senate’s approval, while “Paraguay places ousted President Peña under house arrest” reported Peña’s house arrest. A separate November 7 story, “Crowds protest outside former Paraguayan president’s home, demand accountability,” describes protests outside Peña’s home; its connection to the house-arrest story identifies political fallout in the same episode, not a specific cause.
Footnotes[5][4][6][2][1][3][13]Assessment
The central change is Peña’s removal by the Senate and Alliana’s assumption of the presidency on November 6; November 7 reporting describes Peña’s house arrest. The Senate-impeachment story is explicitly linked to the house-arrest story as an antecedent, while the protest story is connected as episode-related fallout; that connection does not establish why the crowds protested. Alliana’s action expresses intent to aid Ueno bank customers, not evidence that aid was provided. Peña’s entity information still lists a current President office based on October 25 evidence, while the November 7 story calls him ousted; those details leave his listed office status potentially stale rather than confirming that he remained in office.
Footnotes[4][6][1][2][3][12][13][8]Explanation originally captured 2026-11-07 · Evidence through 2026-11-09 UTC · Source edition sed_97e7bd2c3880b63d3e619253246414b4
What informs this explanation
- Complete retained Story and Event membership
- Daily reporting and coded-occurrence time steps
- Event taxonomies, metrics, units, and denominators
- Canonical Entities and recorded actor/target bindings
- Typed reporting, membership, and incident edges
- Changes against the preceding retained edition
- Permitted macro, public-record, and asset facts only when they were retained with an explicit source and observation date
Quantitative
Evidence in numbers
- Scope
A 3-day Situation represented by 1 coded Event carried across 2 member Stories.
- Coded activity
The coded activity is led by 1041 · Change Leadership (1).
- Prominent subjects
Santiago Peña is prominent in the retained actor and relationship evidence.
- Entity coverage
2 canonical Entities are linked to this edition.
Metric coverage. 1 coded Events · 1 CAMEO+ · 0 conflict. The four dimensions describe the CAMEO+ subset; conflict Events do not carry these scores.
Magnitude5
min 5max 5
Systemic importance0.13
min 0.13max 0.13
Propagation potential0.36
min 0.36max 0.36
Market sensitivity0.05
min 0.05max 0.05
Dot = mean · shaded span = observed range · position uses each metric’s defined scale.
All 7 scores, distributions & definitions
How the coder scored the full retained Event set
1 coded event — 1 CAMEO+ (1 political)
- Significance · 10.39min 0.39max 0.39
- Magnitude · 15min 5max 5
- Systemic · 10.13min 0.13max 0.13
- Propagation · 10.36min 0.36max 0.36
- Market · 10.05min 0.05max 0.05
- Goldstein · 1-5min -5max -5
- Confidence · 10.91min 0.91max 0.91
Quad class over that 1 event · Verbal Conflict 1. No conflict-family event here, so nothing carries a fatality count — a missing column, not a toll of zero.
Magnitude
1 measured / 1 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 1 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Systemic
1 measured / 1 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 1 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Propagation
1 measured / 1 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 1 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Market
1 measured / 1 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 1 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Goldstein
1 measured / 1 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (-10 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 1 of 1 events Goldstein is defined on — CAMEO+ POLITICAL and the conflict family; the other nine CAMEO+ domains have no Goldstein semantics
Confidence
1 measured / 1 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 1 events
This retained edition, independent of graph and page limits. Different dimensions, not a blended risk score; reported tolls may overlap.
Day by day2 reporting days · click a day to open or close it
2026-11-07analystlatest
Impeachment, house arrest, and protests in dated reporting
The dated Stories report Senate approval over a banking crisis, Peña’s house arrest, and crowds protesting outside his home. No Events are listed for this date; that does not establish that none occurred.
- 2+2
- Stories · vs day before
- 0-1
- Events · vs day before
- 4
- articles
The lay of the land
Situation timeline
Threads
All 2 daysarticlesstoriesevents
11-0511-07
Loading Situation timeline…
What kind of event · 1 coded type
over 1 coded event on this edition
- Political1
- 1041 · Change Leadership1
Countries · where it happened
Countries · who is acting
Salient structure
What holds this Situation together
Selected from the complete retained edition
Key threads
- core
- development
AnalystImpeachment amid the banking crisis
The impeachment-approval Story describes the Senate’s action over a banking crisis and is linked to the house-arrest Story as an antecedent.
- development
AnalystProtests outside Peña’s home
The protest Story reports crowds demanding accountability outside Peña’s home and is linked to the house-arrest Story as fallout in the same episode.
Key actors
- SO
- SP
Key Events
Notable connections
Evidenced relationships involving significant participants beyond the central cast.
the impeachment approval is identified as an antecedent to the house-arrest episode · analytical connectionAnalystParaguay Senate approves Peña impeachment over banking crisis → fabfd2b538f8
The connection describes the Senate’s impeachment approval as directly leading to Peña’s removal and house arrest.
the protest is linked as political fallout in the same episode · analytical connectionAnalystCrowds protest outside former Paraguayan president’s home, demand accountability → fabfd2b538f8
The connection relates the protest to the house-arrest episode but does not establish a specific cause for the protest.
How a Situation is put together2 Stories · 1 Events · 2 membership connections · 5 graph edges
A retained time step
This edition freezes the complete served membership and analysis available through its UTC cutoff. Later repairs or identity changes do not rewrite what this edition showed.
Stories, Events, and cast
Stories are reporting clusters. Events are coded occurrences within that reporting. The cast contains 2 canonical people and organizations linked to the retained evidence.
Typed connections
Story-to-Event edges identify supporting reporting. Entity-to-Event edges identify recorded actor or target participation. Mentions and analytical roles stay visibly distinct from recorded participation.
Core, precursor, and continuation labels organize the reading. They do not by themselves establish causation. Collapsed graph groups and paginated evidence change presentation only; counts use the complete retained edition.