PoliticalThreaten to break relations2026-09-19🇮🇷

Iran warns NPT withdrawal could follow U.S. behavior

source: Iran -> target: United States -> target: Israeli regime

On 2026-09-19, Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei said Iran could withdraw from the NPT depending on United States behavior. He cited recent military, economic, and political pressure from the United States and the Israeli regime, while saying Iran had not made a decision and still opposed nuclear weaponization.

0.57Significance-5.8Goldstein scale6.0Magnitude0.8Systemic0.1Market3Articles

Metric Evidence

v2-2026-07-24Each score below is computed from the observables the coder read off this event, by a fixed published formula — not chosen by the model. Values and reasons are its own.
Magnitude6

conflict path: min(10, 2 + 2·log₁₀(deaths)), 0 deaths → 0 · other paths: anchored 0–10 tier

verbal tier6

Iran's senior security official conditionally warned that Iran could withdraw from the NPT in response to U.S. behavior and pressure.

Systemic importance0.8· Nuclear non-proliferation regime

mean(size, interconnectedness, irreplaceability) — equal weights, BCBS G-SIB style

size0.8

The NPT is a central global arms-control regime.

interconnectedness0.8

Many states' nuclear commitments and safeguards operate through the NPT framework.

irreplaceability0.8

The NPT is the principal global non-proliferation treaty, with no equivalent replacement.

Propagation potential0.66

mean(channel, coupling, breach, primed, 1 − containment) · 0 if channel ≤ 0.05

channel0.8

The statement directly affects the nuclear non-proliferation and U.S.-Iran security channels.

coupling0.5

Withdrawal is conditional and no immediate deadline or implementation was reported.

breach0.4

The official raised possible withdrawal but explicitly said no decision had yet been made.

primed0.8

The statement references recent military aggression and continuing economic and political pressure.

containment0.2

Iran's stated continued non-weaponization policy provides limited restraint, but no mediator or formal backstop was reported.

Market sensitivity0.05

mean(claim_exposure, economic_bite) · 0 if claim_exposure ≤ 0.05

claim exposure0.1

The statement concerns treaty participation and names no specific traded claim or instrument.

economic bite0

This was a conditional public warning; no treaty withdrawal or economic measure occurred.

Location
TehranMiddle EastIranAsia35.689, 51.389
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