Evidence so far on 2026-11-15 UTC · updated 2026-11-15 14:25 UTC · analysis as of 2026-11-15 02:32 UTCSign in for the live Situation ↗
Narrative
As-of analysis
Carried forward
Situation at a glance
On August 4, Qatar’s Amir met Donald Trump to review de-escalation efforts, and on August 5 a U.S. official was reported to say Washington and Tehran were near an interim deal; neither account establishes an agreement (“Qatar’s Amir meets Trump to review de-escalation efforts”; “US and Iran reportedly near interim deal in Strait of Hormuz”). On August 7, the United States’ renewed blockade was described as disrupting dry-bulk crossings, while a separate account said no oil tankers had loaded at Iran’s Kharg Island for a week (“Renewed blockade in the Strait of Hormuz disrupts dry-bulk crossings”; “No oil tankers loaded at Iran’s Kharg Island for a week amid US blockade”). On August 8, U.S. Central Command was reported to have redirected 53 commercial vessels, while Iran said the Strait would stay closed until the United States met six demands (“US CENTCOM redirected 53 commercial vessels amid blockade against Iran”; “Iran says Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until US meets six demands”). On August 12, an account described a 60-day ceasefire extension, while the IRGC said its Hormuz policy remained unchanged (“United States and Iran extend ceasefire by 60 days”; “Iran’s IRGC says Hormuz policy remains unchanged”). On August 19, reports said Trump halted negotiations and that the U.S.–Iran pact expired without a breakthrough; Qatar’s foreign ministry urged both countries to reopen the Strait (“Trump says no talks planned with Iran, halts negotiation approach”; “US-Iran pact expires with no breakthrough”).
Negotiation efforts and public proposals did not resolve the dispute over Hormuz access: Iran stated conditions for reopening, while U.S. officials and Donald Trump made claims about control and access (“Iran says Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until US meets six demands”; “Trump says U.S. can escalate against Iran; Hormuz under U.S. control”; “US official says Strait of Hormuz is under Navy control”). An August 12 account described a 60-day ceasefire extension, but an August 19 report said the U.S.–Iran pact had expired without a breakthrough; neither report establishes an implemented, mutually accepted settlement (“United States and Iran extend ceasefire by 60 days”; “US-Iran pact expires with no breakthrough”). Reports of an Iran–Oman shipping corridor describe proposed or agreed cooperation, not confirmed operational passage (“Iran and Oman prepare new Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor”; “Iran and Oman agree on new Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor”). August 30 reports described U.S. strikes on Larak Island followed by Iranian attacks presented as retaliation, including attacks on U.S. bases in Jordan; that sequence is reported in those accounts (“Iranian missiles hit US base in Jordan after US attack on Iranian island”; “Iran launches retaliatory attacks in Jordan and Qatar after Larak strike”). Fighting between Yemeni government forces and the Houthi movement is a separate reported strand; its co-occurrence with the U.S.–Iran confrontation does not establish Iranian direction (“Yemeni forces capture Houthi”).
2,368 canonical Entities are linked to this edition.
Metric coverage. 1,079 coded Events · 917 CAMEO+ · 162 conflict. The four dimensions describe the CAMEO+ subset; conflict Events do not carry these scores.
Magnitude3.6
min 1max 9
917 measured
Systemic importance0.23
min 0.03max 0.92
917 measured
Propagation potential0.36
min 0max 0.87
917 measured
Market sensitivity0.1
min 0.05max 0.8
917 measured
Dot = mean · shaded span = observed range · position uses each metric’s defined scale.
Quad class over those 1006 events · Verbal Cooperation 489 · Verbal Conflict 308 · Material Conflict 195 · Material Cooperation 14. 73 sit outside POLITICAL, where Goldstein and quad class are undefined. The four CAMEO+ scores are over the 917 CAMEO+ events only; the 162 conflict events have no such column.
score (-10 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 1006 of 1079 events Goldstein is defined on — CAMEO+ POLITICAL and the conflict family; the other nine CAMEO+ domains have no Goldstein semantics
This retained edition, independent of graph and page limits. Different dimensions, not a blended risk score; reported tolls may overlap.
Day by day106 reporting days · click a day to open or close it
2026-11-15from the recordslatest
Three tankers catch fire after striking naval mines in Strait of Hormuz
11 Stories and 3 coded Events (-14 / -5 against the day before). Widest coverage: Three tankers catch fire after striking naval mines in Strait of Hormuz (22 articles). Recorded acting: United States.
Compared with currently maintained Situation membership; this list is not part of the retained edition above.
Share · 15 Nov 2026
U.S.–Iran confrontation over Hormuz and regional conflict, in one card
How a Situation is put together2,429 Stories · 1,079 Events · 2,429 membership connections · 30,302 graph edges
A retained time step
This edition freezes the complete served membership and analysis available through its UTC cutoff. Later repairs or identity changes do not rewrite what this edition showed.
Stories, Events, and cast
Stories are reporting clusters. Events are coded occurrences within that reporting. The cast contains 2,368 canonical people and organizations linked to the retained evidence.
Typed connections
Story-to-Event edges identify supporting reporting. Entity-to-Event edges identify recorded actor or target participation. Mentions and analytical roles stay visibly distinct from recorded participation.
Core, precursor, and continuation labels organize the reading. They do not by themselves establish causation. Collapsed graph groups and paginated evidence change presentation only; counts use the complete retained edition.
