Significance
30 measured / 30 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 30 events
Connected Situation / Through 2026-10-13
Panama Earthquake, Aftershocks and Response
- stories
- 43
- events
- 30
- entities
- 111
- connections
- 43
Evidence so far on 2026-10-13 UTC · updated 2026-10-13 17:25 UTC · analysis as of 2026-10-13 13:28 UTCSign in for the live Situation ↗
Narrative
As-of analysis
Situation at a glance
On October 9, reports gave the earthquake’s magnitude as 7.0 and 7.6; a separate headline reported 7.7 that day, and the October 10 headline also reported 7.7. The headlines do not reconcile the differing figures. Ensa restored 17 power circuits in Colón on October 9, and Yamandú Orsi offered Uruguay’s aid to José Raúl Mulino that day. The United States also expressed intent to assist Panama on October 9; separate October 11 reporting said it had mobilized $5 million in aid, while a report that aid was mobilized does not by itself establish delivery. Other reporting described helicopters delivering aid to Las Tablas on October 10 and Mayer Mizrachi sending 100 tons of aid to Chitré on October 11. On October 10, Metro de Panamá kept two lines suspended after aftershocks, while the Alcaldía de Panamá opened a collection center for earthquake victims. On October 11, “Panama declares emergency as powerful earthquake aftershocks rattle communities” accompanied reports that Tonosí residents were left without homes and services; that day, Panama’s geosciences institute counted 256 Azuero aftershocks. By October 12, “Structural damage reported at at least 14 schools in Bocas del Toro, Panama” and “Chiriquí opens earthquake aid collection center” accompanied further reports of damage and service disruption, including CSS clinic closures across three provinces.
Footnotes[7][9][10][17][15][11][12][3][14][13][1][2]Assessment
The principal picture is a major earthquake followed by aftershocks and reported localized damage, alongside interruptions to transit, electricity and health services and the opening of aid collection points. Earthquake coverage included reports of magnitudes 7.0, 7.6 and 7.7; a separate magnitude-6.1 report concerned an aftershock, and the headlines do not resolve the differing figures. Orsi’s offer and the U.S. October 9 statement were commitments, not proof of delivery; separate October 11 reporting said the United States had mobilized $5 million in aid, and other reports described aid being delivered by helicopter and sent to Chitré. The municipal collection-center opening and Ensa’s circuit restoration are described as actions taken. The October 12 school-damage headline and CSS clinic-closure Event add to the account of continuing effects, but do not establish the full extent of damage or service disruption.
Footnotes[7][9][6][17][15][12][10][1][16]Explanation originally captured 2026-10-13 · Evidence through 2026-10-13 UTC · Source edition sed_97200751355af0aec5b50b96b290ca55
What informs this explanation
- Complete retained Story and Event membership
- Daily reporting and coded-occurrence time steps
- Event taxonomies, metrics, units, and denominators
- Canonical Entities and recorded actor/target bindings
- Typed reporting, membership, and incident edges
- Changes against the preceding retained edition
- Permitted macro, public-record, and asset facts only when they were retained with an explicit source and observation date
Quantitative
Evidence in numbers
- Scope
A 5-day Situation represented by 30 coded Events carried across 43 member Stories.
- Coded activity
The coded activity is led by EN01 · Geophysical Hazard (14) and IN02 · Transport Disruption (4).
- Prominent subjects
Yamandú Orsi and José Raúl Mulino are prominent in the retained actor and relationship evidence.
- Entity coverage
111 canonical Entities are linked to this edition.
Metric coverage. 30 coded Events · 30 CAMEO+ · 0 conflict. The four dimensions describe the CAMEO+ subset; conflict Events do not carry these scores.
Magnitude2.5
min 1max 5
Systemic importance0.12
min 0.05max 0.3
Propagation potential0.29
min 0.2max 0.46
Market sensitivity0.06
min 0.05max 0.38
Dot = mean · shaded span = observed range · position uses each metric’s defined scale.
All 7 scores, distributions & definitions
How the coder scored the full retained Event set
30 coded events — 30 CAMEO+ (10 political)
- Significance · 300.26min 0.17max 0.38
- Magnitude · 302.5min 1max 5
- Systemic · 300.12min 0.05max 0.3
- Propagation · 300.29min 0.2max 0.46
- Market · 300.06min 0.05max 0.38
- Goldstein · 102.4min -2max 7.4
- Confidence · 300.53min 0.3max 0.99
Quad class over those 10 events · Verbal Cooperation 7 · Material Cooperation 2 · Verbal Conflict 1. No conflict-family event here, so nothing carries a fatality count — a missing column, not a toll of zero. 20 sit outside POLITICAL, where Goldstein and quad class are undefined.
Magnitude
30 measured / 30 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 30 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Systemic
30 measured / 30 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 30 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Propagation
30 measured / 30 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 30 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Market
30 measured / 30 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 30 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Goldstein
10 measured / 10 eligible · 0 missing · 20 not applicable
score (-10 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 10 of 30 events Goldstein is defined on — CAMEO+ POLITICAL and the conflict family; the other nine CAMEO+ domains have no Goldstein semantics
Confidence
30 measured / 30 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 30 events
This retained edition, independent of graph and page limits. Different dimensions, not a blended risk score; reported tolls may overlap.
Day by day5 reporting days · click a day to open or close it
2026-10-13from the recordslatest
Panama reports 6,174 people affected by earthquake
6 Stories and 3 coded Events (+2 / -3 against the day before). Widest coverage: New magnitude 6.1 earthquake shakes Panama this Monday, October 12 (30 articles).
- 6+2
- Stories · vs day before
- 3-3
- Events · vs day before
- 62
- articles
The lay of the land
Situation timeline
Threads
All 5 daysarticlesstoriesevents
10-0910-1010-1110-1210-13
Loading Situation timeline…
What kind of event · 11 coded types
over 30 coded events on this edition
- Environment14
- EN01 · Geophysical Hazard14
- Political10
- 01 · Make Public Statement2
- 018 · Empathetic Comment2
- 073 · Provide Humanitarian Aid2
- 0233 · Humanitarian1
- 033 · Intent to Provide Material Aid1
- 0333 · Express Intent to Provide Humanitarian Aid1
Countries · where it happened
Countries · who is acting
Salient structure
What holds this Situation together
Selected from the complete retained edition
Key threads
- core
AnalystEarthquake, aftershocks and community impacts
The quake and aftershock headlines, emergency coverage and localized impact Events describe the seismic sequence and its reported effects.
- development
AnalystAid statements, service disruption and recovery measures
Events describe aid offers and intentions, electricity restoration, Metro suspension and a municipal collection center; later headlines report further aid collection and Metro testing.
Key actors
- YO
- JM
Key Events
contextAnalystEnsa restores 17 power circuits after earthquake in Colón
On October 9, Ensa restored 17 power circuits in Colón.
On October 9, Ensa restored 17 power circuits in Colón.
Footnotes[10]
contextAnalystYamandú Orsi offers Uruguay’s aid to Panama after earthquake
On October 9, Yamandú Orsi offered Uruguay’s humanitarian aid to José Raúl Mulino; the Event describes intent.
On October 9, Yamandú Orsi offered Uruguay’s humanitarian aid to José Raúl Mulino; the Event describes intent.
Footnotes[17]contextAnalystRubio says United States will assist Panama after earthquake
On October 9, the United States expressed intent to provide material aid to Panama.
On October 9, the United States expressed intent to provide material aid to Panama.
Footnotes[15]
contextAnalystMetro de Panamá keeps two lines suspended after aftershocks
On October 10, Metro de Panamá kept two lines suspended after aftershocks, affecting Panama City metro passengers.
On October 10, Metro de Panamá kept two lines suspended after aftershocks, affecting Panama City metro passengers.
Footnotes[11]contextAnalystAlcaldía de Panamá opens collection center for earthquake victims
On October 10, the Alcaldía de Panamá opened a collection center for earthquake victims.
On October 10, the Alcaldía de Panamá opened a collection center for earthquake victims.
Footnotes[12]
Notable connections
Evidenced relationships involving significant participants beyond the central cast.
The Orsi aid-offer Event is linked to the Story about his offer to Panama. · reporting linkAnalystYamandú Orsi offers Uruguay’s aid to Panama after earthquake → Uruguay's Orsi offers aid to Panama after earthquake
The Event lists this Story as linked coverage.
The Metro suspension Event is linked to the Story about system tests ahead of resumption. · reporting linkAnalystMetro de Panamá keeps two lines suspended after aftershocks → Panama Metro tests systems ahead of resuming operations
The Event lists this Metro Story as linked coverage.
The Tonosí impacts Event is linked to the emergency and community-impacts Story. · reporting linkAnalystEarthquake aftershocks leave Tonosí residents without homes and services → Panama declares emergency as powerful earthquake aftershocks rattle communities
The Event lists this Story as linked coverage.
How a Situation is put together43 Stories · 30 Events · 43 membership connections · 441 graph edges
A retained time step
This edition freezes the complete served membership and analysis available through its UTC cutoff. Later repairs or identity changes do not rewrite what this edition showed.
Stories, Events, and cast
Stories are reporting clusters. Events are coded occurrences within that reporting. The cast contains 111 canonical people and organizations linked to the retained evidence.
Typed connections
Story-to-Event edges identify supporting reporting. Entity-to-Event edges identify recorded actor or target participation. Mentions and analytical roles stay visibly distinct from recorded participation.
Core, precursor, and continuation labels organize the reading. They do not by themselves establish causation. Collapsed graph groups and paginated evidence change presentation only; counts use the complete retained edition.