Significance
3 measured / 3 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 3 events
Connected Situation / Through 2026-10-01
Situation analysis pending
- stories
- 4
- events
- 3
- entities
- 20
- connections
- 4
Evidence so far on 2026-10-01 UTC · updated 2026-10-01 08:26 UTCSign in for the live Situation ↗
Narrative
Analysis in preparation
StatusThe first verified explanation of this Situation is being written and checked against its retained evidence. It usually publishes within the hour.
MeanwhileThe evidence, graph, map and day-by-day reading below are complete for this edition.
Quantitative
Evidence in numbers
- Scope
A 2-day Situation represented by 3 coded Events carried across 4 member Stories.
- Coded activity
The coded activity is led by 01 · Make Public Statement (3).
- Prominent subjects
Volodymyr Zelenskyy is prominent in the retained actor and relationship evidence.
- Entity coverage
20 canonical Entities are linked to this edition.
Metric coverage. 3 coded Events · 3 CAMEO+ · 0 conflict. The four dimensions describe the CAMEO+ subset; conflict Events do not carry these scores.
Magnitude3
min 3max 3
Systemic importance0.1
min 0.1max 0.1
Propagation potential0.25
min 0.24max 0.26
Market sensitivity0.05
min 0.05max 0.05
Dot = mean · shaded span = observed range · position uses each metric’s defined scale.
All 7 scores, distributions & definitions
How the coder scored the full retained Event set
3 coded events — 3 CAMEO+ (3 political)
- Significance · 30.19min 0.18max 0.2
- Magnitude · 33min 3max 3
- Systemic · 30.1min 0.1max 0.1
- Propagation · 30.25min 0.24max 0.26
- Market · 30.05min 0.05max 0.05
- Goldstein · 30min 0max 0
- Confidence · 30.67min 0.43max 0.91
Quad class over those 3 events · Verbal Cooperation 3. No conflict-family event here, so nothing carries a fatality count — a missing column, not a toll of zero.
Magnitude
3 measured / 3 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 3 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Systemic
3 measured / 3 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 3 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Propagation
3 measured / 3 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 3 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Market
3 measured / 3 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 3 events — every one of them CAMEO+
Goldstein
3 measured / 3 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (-10 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 3 of 3 events Goldstein is defined on — CAMEO+ POLITICAL and the conflict family; the other nine CAMEO+ domains have no Goldstein semantics
Confidence
3 measured / 3 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 3 events
This retained edition, independent of graph and page limits. Different dimensions, not a blended risk score; reported tolls may overlap.
Day by day2 reporting days · click a day to open or close it
2026-10-01from the recordslatest
Kyiv sought secrecy over transfer of North Korean POWs, Seoul intelligence says
2 Stories and 0 coded Events (0 / -3 against the day before). Widest coverage: Kyiv sought secrecy over transfer of North Korean POWs, Seoul intelligence says (1 articles).
- 20
- Stories · vs day before
- 0-3
- Events · vs day before
- 2
- articles
The lay of the land
Situation timeline
All 2 daysarticlesstoriesevents
09-3010-01
Loading Situation timeline…
What kind of event · 1 coded type
over 3 coded events on this edition
- Political3
- 01 · Make Public Statement3
Countries · where it happened
Countries · who is acting
How a Situation is put together4 Stories · 3 Events · 4 membership connections · 28 graph edges
A retained time step
This edition freezes the complete served membership and analysis available through its UTC cutoff. Later repairs or identity changes do not rewrite what this edition showed.
Stories, Events, and cast
Stories are reporting clusters. Events are coded occurrences within that reporting. The cast contains 20 canonical people and organizations linked to the retained evidence.
Typed connections
Story-to-Event edges identify supporting reporting. Entity-to-Event edges identify recorded actor or target participation. Mentions and analytical roles stay visibly distinct from recorded participation.
Core, precursor, and continuation labels organize the reading. They do not by themselves establish causation. Collapsed graph groups and paginated evidence change presentation only; counts use the complete retained edition.