Significance
152 measured / 152 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 152 events
Connected Situation / Through 2026-11-12
Venezuela’s Election Dispute, Dialogue and Political Releases
- stories
- 408
- events
- 152
- entities
- 528
- connections
- 408
Evidence so far on 2026-11-12 UTC · updated 2026-11-12 20:26 UTC · analysis as of 2026-11-12 12:29 UTCSign in for the live Situation ↗
Narrative
As-of analysis
Situation at a glance
On September 23, Venezuela’s interim leader said elections would be held; the next day, the interim president said voters would decide the timing, without naming a date. On September 26, Donald Trump said he had discussed Venezuelan elections with Delcy Rodríguez, while Venezuelan authorities released seven prisoners held for political reasons. The Venezuelan government began a third cycle of political dialogue with the opposition on October 14, and the government and the 2015 National Assembly concluded a dialogue round on October 21. That day María Corina Machado urged Venezuelans to mobilize for an election date; on October 27, the United States urged Rodríguez to call elections. Machado returned to Venezuela and visited Santa Rosa Church on October 24, while Rodríguez criticized her return on October 26. On November 5, Marco Rubio said elections ideally would take place in 2027; on November 9, Dinorah Figuera confirmed a meeting with Jorge Rodríguez, and separate calls for elections and amnesty continued.
Footnotes[1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][10][12]Assessment
The central unresolved issue is election timing: the interim leader’s statements, Machado’s mobilization call, the United States’ appeal, and Rubio’s description of 2027 do not establish an agreed date or timetable. The dialogue cycle and its concluded round establish government-opposition contact, but do not establish that participants settled election timing. Machado’s return, Rodríguez’s criticism, and the United States’ appeal concerning her return are distinct events; they do not establish a common account of the circumstances. Prisoner-related developments also differ in status: the September 26 report describes seven releases, while Dinorah Figuera’s November 8 announcement of more releases does not itself establish that those further releases occurred. Figuera’s confirmed meeting with Jorge Rodríguez establishes contact, not resolution of the election or prisoner issues.
Footnotes[1][2][3][5][6][7][8][9][11][12][10]Explanation originally captured 2026-11-12 · Evidence through 2026-11-12 UTC · Source edition sed_25e4f2e649037a7061a1cda9f607b492
What informs this explanation
- Complete retained Story and Event membership
- Daily reporting and coded-occurrence time steps
- Event taxonomies, metrics, units, and denominators
- Canonical Entities and recorded actor/target bindings
- Typed reporting, membership, and incident edges
- Changes against the preceding retained edition
- Permitted macro, public-record, and asset facts only when they were retained with an explicit source and observation date
Quantitative
Evidence in numbers
- Scope
A 57-day Situation represented by 152 coded Events carried across 408 member Stories.
- Coded activity
The coded activity is led by 01 · Make Public Statement (23) and PEACEFUL PROTEST (11).
- Prominent subjects
María Corina Machado, Delcy Rodríguez, and Donald Trump are prominent in the retained actor and relationship evidence.
- Entity coverage
528 canonical Entities are linked to this edition.
Metric coverage. 152 coded Events · 139 CAMEO+ · 13 conflict. The four dimensions describe the CAMEO+ subset; conflict Events do not carry these scores.
Magnitude2.6
min 1max 7
Systemic importance0.12
min 0.05max 0.67
Propagation potential0.26
min 0max 0.38
Market sensitivity0.05
min 0.05max 0.3
Dot = mean · shaded span = observed range · position uses each metric’s defined scale.
All 8 scores, distributions & definitions
How the coder scored the full retained Event set
152 coded events — 139 CAMEO+ (135 political) · 13 conflict
- Significance · 1520.25min 0.11max 0.47
- Magnitude · 1392.6min 1max 7
- Systemic · 1390.12min 0.05max 0.67
- Propagation · 1390.26min 0max 0.38
- Market · 1390.05min 0.05max 0.3
- Goldstein · 1480.7min -7.5max 8
- Fatalities · 130min 0max 0
- Confidence · 1520.72min 0.28max 0.98
Quad class over those 148 events · Verbal Cooperation 107 · Verbal Conflict 32 · Material Cooperation 6 · Material Conflict 3. 4 sit outside POLITICAL, where Goldstein and quad class are undefined. The four CAMEO+ scores are over the 139 CAMEO+ events only; the 13 conflict events have no such column.
Magnitude
139 measured / 139 eligible · 0 missing · 13 not applicable
score (0 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 139 of 152 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Systemic
139 measured / 139 eligible · 0 missing · 13 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 139 of 152 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Propagation
139 measured / 139 eligible · 0 missing · 13 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 139 of 152 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Market
139 measured / 139 eligible · 0 missing · 13 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 139 of 152 events coded in the CAMEO+ family; the conflict family has no such column
Goldstein
148 measured / 148 eligible · 0 missing · 4 not applicable
score (-10 to 10) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across the 148 of 152 events Goldstein is defined on — CAMEO+ POLITICAL and the conflict family; the other nine CAMEO+ domains have no Goldstein semantics
Fatalities
13 measured / 13 eligible · 0 missing · 139 not applicable
reported people · Reports may overlap; these are Event-level reports, not an additive unique human toll.
across the 13 of 152 events that report a toll — the conflict family only, and never 0 on a CAMEO+ event
Confidence
152 measured / 152 eligible · 0 missing · 0 not applicable
score (0 to 1) · Event-level distribution, not a Situation risk score.
across all 152 events
This retained edition, independent of graph and page limits. Different dimensions, not a blended risk score; reported tolls may overlap.
Day by day57 reporting days · click a day to open or close it
2026-11-12from the recordslatest
Maduro's defense asks New York court to dismiss torture-conspiracy charge
2 Stories and 1 coded Event (-1 / +1 against the day before). Widest coverage: Maduro’s defense lawyers ask US court to drop torture charge (1 articles).
- 2-1
- Stories · vs day before
- 1+1
- Events · vs day before
- 2
- articles
The lay of the land
Situation timeline
All 57 daysarticlesstoriesevents
09-1709-2810-0910-2111-0111-12
Loading Situation timeline…
What kind of event · 48 coded types
over 152 coded events on this edition
- Political135
- 01 · Make Public Statement23
- 043 · Host A Visit10
- 042 · Make A Visit9
- 051 · Praise or Endorse9
- 046 · Engage in Negotiation8
- 04 · Consult7
- 111 · Criticize or Denounce6
Countries · where it happened
Countries · who is acting
Salient structure
What holds this Situation together
Selected from the complete retained edition
Key threads
Key actors
- MM
RuleMaría Corina Machado
Recorded as actor and target in 21 coded Events, including María Corina Machado plans Venezuela tour to demand elections.
Recorded as actor and target in 21 coded Events, including María Corina Machado plans Venezuela tour to demand elections.
Footnotes[?][?][?][?][?] - DR
RuleDelcy Rodríguez
Recorded as actor and target in 28 coded Events, including Delcy Rodríguez meets IDB president in New York.
Recorded as actor and target in 28 coded Events, including Delcy Rodríguez meets IDB president in New York.
Footnotes[?][?][?][?][?] - DT
RuleDonald Trump
Recorded as actor and target in 15 coded Events, including Donald Trump threatens military force in Latin America.
Recorded as actor and target in 15 coded Events, including Donald Trump threatens military force in Latin America.
Footnotes[?][?][?][?][?] - NM
RuleNicolás Maduro
Recorded as target and actor in 4 coded Events, including Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores plead not guilty in New York.
Recorded as target and actor in 4 coded Events, including Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores plead not guilty in New York.
Footnotes[?][?][?][?] - UN
RuleUnited Nations
Recorded as actor and target in 3 coded Events, including Venezuelan delegation demands predictable health-system financing at UN.
Recorded as actor and target in 3 coded Events, including Venezuelan delegation demands predictable health-system financing at UN.
Footnotes[?][?][?]
Key Events
RuleDonald Trump threatens military force in Latin America
2026-09-22 · POLITICAL
2026-09-22 · POLITICAL
RuleU.S. Marine Corps reactivates security detachment at Caracas embassy
2026-10-16 · POLITICAL
2026-10-16 · POLITICAL
RuleVenezuelan delegation demands predictable health-system financing at UN
2026-09-24 · POLITICAL
2026-09-24 · POLITICAL
RuleVente Venezuela demands a 2027 election timetable in Maracay
2026-10-22 · POLITICAL
2026-10-22 · POLITICAL
RuleRubio presses Venezuela to restructure its electoral council
2026-10-26 · POLITICAL
2026-10-26 · POLITICAL
Additional recorded participants
Non-central actors and targets retained from coded Events. A later analysis may identify an evidenced relationship as notable.
- MR
recorded participationRuleMarco Rubio
Recorded as actor across 6 coded Events, including Rubio presses Venezuela to restructure its electoral council.
Recorded as actor across 6 coded Events, including Rubio presses Venezuela to restructure its electoral council.
Footnotes[?][?][?][?][?] - DF
recorded participationRuleDinorah Figuera
Recorded as actor and target across 4 coded Events, including Gustavo Duque meets Dinorah Figuera in Washington.
Recorded as actor and target across 4 coded Events, including Gustavo Duque meets Dinorah Figuera in Washington.
Footnotes[?][?][?][?] - UN
recorded participationRuleUnited Nations General Assembly
Recorded as target across 2 coded Events, including Konaković attends United Nations General Assembly in New York.
Recorded as target across 2 coded Events, including Konaković attends United Nations General Assembly in New York.
Footnotes[?][?] - CF
recorded participationRuleCilia Flores
Recorded as target across 2 coded Events, including Judge Alvin Hellerstein denies Cilia Flores bail.
Recorded as target across 2 coded Events, including Judge Alvin Hellerstein denies Cilia Flores bail.
Footnotes[?][?] - EU
recorded participationRuleEuropean Union
Recorded as target and actor across 2 coded Events, including European Union urges Venezuelan actors to pursue inclusive dialogue.
Recorded as target and actor across 2 coded Events, including European Union urges Venezuelan actors to pursue inclusive dialogue.
Footnotes[?][?]
How a Situation is put together408 Stories · 152 Events · 408 membership connections · 3,552 graph edges
A retained time step
This edition freezes the complete served membership and analysis available through its UTC cutoff. Later repairs or identity changes do not rewrite what this edition showed.
Stories, Events, and cast
Stories are reporting clusters. Events are coded occurrences within that reporting. The cast contains 528 canonical people and organizations linked to the retained evidence.
Typed connections
Story-to-Event edges identify supporting reporting. Entity-to-Event edges identify recorded actor or target participation. Mentions and analytical roles stay visibly distinct from recorded participation.
Core, precursor, and continuation labels organize the reading. They do not by themselves establish causation. Collapsed graph groups and paginated evidence change presentation only; counts use the complete retained edition.