War-Risk Underwriting · Demo
Strait of Hormuz Underwriting Brief
A weekly operating picture of the Strait of Hormuz — last 7 days, sized for a marine war-risk underwriter pricing a tanker hull/war policy. Built on the GDELT Cloud public API + MCP macro snapshot. Other demos →
Last refreshed: 2026-07-08 02:48 UTC · auto-refreshed every 24h
Executive brief
Strait of Hormuz · weekly · last 7 days
- Volume
100 structured events and 8 story clusters across 4 countries, 2026-05-15 → 2026-05-21. - Dominant narrative
Largest story cluster: "Modi pledges support to UAE during bilateral talks with President Zayed Al Nahyan" (38 articles). Most-mentioned actors: Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran CNN, Iran. - Casualties
No fatal incidents recorded in the window — narrative dominated by political and infrastructure events, not direct kinetic exchanges. - Macro context
Brent Crude Oil +11.6% over the window (now 89.4 USD/bbl). Move is consistent with elevated risk premium. - Infrastructure
60 oil/gas + LNG assets in the geographic window (75.0 GW total) — defines the exposure footprint for shipping, insurance, and energy security.
Bottom line · Pricing posture: war-risk premium justifies a 15-35bps uplift on through-strait tonnage given the macro move and 100+ in-window events.
Events
100
Iran · Oman · UAE · Qatar
Fatal incidents
0
0 fatalities
Story clusters
8
≥12 articles
Energy MW at risk
75.0k
across 60 assets
Section 2 — Strait of Hormuz disruption picture
Layers
Legend · circles = events (size = magnitude, color = Goldstein severity) · diamonds = story clusters (size = article count) · squares = oil/gas + LNG terminals · click any marker for detail. Persian Gulf carries ~20% of global oil flow through the strait.
Section 3 — Marine war-risk macro · 30-day trend
Brent Crude Oil
89.4 USD/bbl▲ +11.6%
2026-03-222026-05-20
WTI Crude Oil
85.6 USD/bbl▲ +12.9%
2026-03-222026-05-20
Source: Alpha Vantage via GDELT Cloud MCP macro_finance proxy.
Section 4 — Top events · stories · named entities
Events · structured incidents · by significance
- sig 0.61POLITICAL057 · Sign Formal Agreement2026-05-19 · United Arab EmiratesModi strengthens India’s energy security during UAE visit amid Middle East tensionsIndia (India)→United Arab Emirates (United Arab Emirates)Goldstein8.0Mag8.0Propagation30%Mkt sens80%Systemic60%
- sig 0.61POLITICAL046 · Engage in Negotiation2026-05-16 · IranEuropean talks with Iran to authorize Strait of Hormuz passageEuropean countries→Iran (Iran)Goldstein7.0Mag7.0Propagation40%Mkt sens90%Systemic80%
- sig 0.61POLITICAL057 · Sign Formal Agreement2026-05-15 · United Arab EmiratesModi and UAE President sign new energy and defense pacts during UAE visitIndia (India)→United Arab Emirates (United Arab Emirates)Goldstein8.0Mag8.0Propagation30%Mkt sens70%Systemic60%
- sig 0.60POLITICAL057 · Sign Formal Agreement2026-05-20 · United Arab EmiratesUAE and France sign new defense cooperation agreementUnited Arab Emirates Ministry of Defence (United Arab Emirates)→France (France)Goldstein8.0Mag9.0Propagation30%Mkt sens50%Systemic60%
- sig 0.58POLITICAL061 · Cooperate Economically2026-05-20 · South KoreaKorean tanker attempts Hormuz transit after Seoul-Tehran coordinationSouth Korea (South Korea)→Iran (Iran)Goldstein6.4Mag7.0Propagation40%Mkt sens80%Systemic70%
- sig 0.55POLITICAL057 · Sign Formal Agreement2026-05-19 · FranceUAE and France sign military cooperation agreementUnited Arab Emirates (United Arab Emirates)→France (France)Goldstein8.0Mag8.0Propagation30%Mkt sens20%Systemic60%
- sig 0.54POLITICAL045 · Mediate2026-05-18 · IranIran in talks with Oman to develop new Strait of Hormuz management mechanismIran (Iran)→Oman (Oman)Goldstein5.0Mag6.0Propagation50%Mkt sens80%Systemic80%
- sig 0.54POLITICAL163 · Impose Sanctions / Restrict Transit2026-05-18 · IranIran bans enemy military equipment through Strait of HormuzIran (Iran)→enemy countriesGoldstein-8.0Mag2.0Propagation50%Mkt sens80%Systemic80%
- sig 0.52POLITICAL102 · Demand Policy Support2026-05-16 · United StatesTrump says Iran must open Strait of Hormuz for sanctions reliefUnited States (United States)→Iran (Iran)Goldstein-5.0Mag3.0Propagation70%Mkt sens90%Systemic80%
- sig 0.50ECONOMICEC05 · Market Stress Event2026-05-19 · IranFew foreign ships pass Strait of Hormuz amid Iran insurance plan reportsIran-linked shipping environment (Iran)→Foreign commercial shippingMag7.0Propagation80%Mkt sens95%Systemic95%
- sig 0.50POLITICAL057 · Sign Formal Agreement2026-05-16 · IranIran and Pakistan agree to facilitate border trade exchangesIran (Iran)→Pakistan (Pakistan)Goldstein8.0Mag8.0Propagation20%Mkt sens15%Systemic35%
- sig 0.48POLITICAL039 · Intent to Mediate2026-05-15 · ChinaTrump and Xi say China will help resolve Iran tensions and block nuclear armsXi Jinping (China)→Iran (Iran)Goldstein4.0Mag6.0Propagation40%Mkt sens60%Systemic70%
- sig 0.48POLITICAL051 · Praise or Endorse2026-05-15 · United Arab EmiratesModi urges “open and safe” Strait of Hormuz during UAE visitNarendra Modi (India)→Strait of HormuzGoldstein3.4Mag6.0Propagation40%Mkt sens80%Systemic70%
- sig 0.47POLITICAL051 · Praise or Endorse2026-05-15 · IndiaIran claims joint Strait of Hormuz plan, putting Oman in US-Iran crossfireIran (Iran)→Oman (Oman)Goldstein3.4Mag6.0Propagation40%Mkt sens80%Systemic70%
- sig 0.46POLITICAL1312 · Threaten to Boycott/sanction2026-05-20 · United StatesTrump says no U.S. sanctions relief for Iran until deal is finalizedDonald Trump (United States)→Iran (Iran)Goldstein-5.8Mag2.0Propagation30%Mkt sens80%Systemic70%
Stories · article clusters · by reach
- Story2026-05-15· United Arab Emiratessig 0.48Modi pledges support to UAE during bilateral talks with President Zayed Al Nahyan38 articles1 linked eventPoliticalvia news.webindia123.com
- Story2026-05-16· United Arab Emiratessig 0.56India and UAE sign landmark energy and defence pacts during Modi’s visit10 articles1 linked eventPoliticalvia arabherald.com
- Story2026-05-18· United Statessig 0.45Donald Trump rejects Iran’s latest nuclear counteroffer amid stalled talks10 articles1 linked eventPoliticalvia sot.com.al
- Story2026-05-20· United Statessig 0.39Trump says Iran nuclear talks near final stages; Iran reviews U.S. proposal8 articles1 linked eventPoliticalvia al-monitor.com
- Story2026-05-15· United Statessig 0.37Trump rejects Iran’s peace proposal, saying first sentence was unacceptable5 articles1 linked eventPoliticalvia gazeta-shqip.com
- Story2026-05-20· Iransig 0.37Pakistan Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi makes second visit to Tehran amid Iran-US impasse5 articles1 linked eventPoliticalvia pakobserver.net
- Story2026-05-16· Italysig 0.37Europe Gulf Forum officials urge Iran’s IRGC to reopen Strait of Hormuz5 articles1 linked eventPoliticalvia ansa.it
- Story2026-05-15· Indiasig 0.33Iran says India should play greater role in West Asia peace amid Hormuz tensions5 articles1 linked eventPoliticalvia newindianexpress.com
Named entities
- IIranorganizationArticles328Stories283Events25
- ICIran CNNorganizationArticles318Stories293Events31
- IRIranian Revolutionary Guard CorpsorganizationArticles289Stories245Events18
- NOnon-IranianspersonArticles54Stories47Events2
- IISNAorganizationArticles49Stories40Events5
- NSNational Security Commission -- IRIBorganizationArticles18Stories18Events3
- SLSupreme LeaderpersonArticles18Stories18Events1
- IFIran Financing Sanctions List LBCIorganizationArticles18Stories18Events0
- IPIranian ParliamentorganizationArticles18Stories18Events1
- IAIranian Armed ForcesorganizationArticles8Stories7Events0
Web research · narrative context
Lloyd's List (sample)· 2026-05-17
War-risk insurance premiums spike on Strait of Hormuz tankers
Marine war-risk underwriters lifted premiums on VLCCs transiting the Strait of Hormuz by 35 basis points this week, citing escalating tensions...
Reuters (sample)· 2026-05-12
IRGC seizes Greek-flagged tanker near Larak Island
Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps boarded and seized a Greek-flagged tanker near Larak Island, the third such seizure this year...
FT (sample)· 2026-05-08
GCC oil ministers warn of supply disruption risk
Gulf Cooperation Council oil ministers convened an emergency session as renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions threaten to disrupt 20% of global oil flow...
How this demo is built: every panel above is rendered from the GDELT Cloud public REST API (events, stories, entities, energy assets) plus a daily snapshot of the macro_finance and web_research MCP tools. The standalone Python repo at github.com/gdelt-cloud/demos reproduces this entire brief with one API key.