War-Risk Underwriting · Demo
Strait of Hormuz Underwriting Brief
A weekly operating picture of the Strait of Hormuz — last 7 days, sized for a marine war-risk underwriter pricing a tanker hull/war policy. The GDELT Cloud API supplies live events and assets; the macro and web examples are frozen illustrations. Other demos →
Last refreshed: 2026-10-06 14:27 UTC · auto-refreshed every 24h
Executive brief
Strait of Hormuz · weekly · last 7 days
- Volume
100 structured events and 40 story clusters across 4 countries, 2026-09-30 → 2026-10-06. - Dominant narrative
Largest story cluster: "Trump threatens Iran over copilot's alleged attempt to crash flight to Israel" (497 articles). Most-mentioned actors: Houthi movement, Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Iranian Army. - Casualties
No fatal incidents recorded in the window — narrative dominated by political and infrastructure events, not direct kinetic exchanges. - Macro context
Brent Crude Oil +11.6% over the window (now 89.4 USD/bbl). Move is consistent with elevated risk premium. - Infrastructure
60 oil/gas + LNG assets in the geographic window (73.8 GW total) — defines the exposure footprint for shipping, insurance, and energy security.
Bottom line · Pricing posture: war-risk premium justifies a 15-35bps uplift on through-strait tonnage given the macro move and 100+ in-window events.
Events
100
Iran · Oman · UAE · Qatar
Fatal incidents
0
0 fatalities
Story clusters
40
≥12 articles
Energy MW at risk
73.8k
across 60 assets
Section 2 — Strait of Hormuz disruption picture
Layers
Legend · circles = events (size = magnitude, color = Goldstein severity) · diamonds = story clusters (size = article count) · squares = oil/gas + LNG terminals · click any marker for detail. Persian Gulf carries ~20% of global oil flow through the strait.
Section 3 — Marine war-risk macro · 30-day trend(frozen capture, through 2026-05-20 — not the live window above)
Brent Crude Oil
89.4 USD/bbl▲ +11.6%
2026-03-222026-05-20
WTI Crude Oil
85.6 USD/bbl▲ +12.9%
2026-03-222026-05-20
Illustrative frozen macro snapshot. The former Alpha Vantage MCP proxy is retired; native macro tools cover supported FRED oil series.
Section 4 — Top events · stories · named entities
Events · structured incidents · by significance
- sig 0.64POLITICALImpose Embargo/sanctions2026-09-30 · United StatesCENTCOM says blockade enforcement redirected 125 commercial vesselsU.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) (United States)→Iran (Iran)Goldstein-8.0Mag8.0Propagation57%Mkt sens38%Systemic50%
- sig 0.59ECONOMICTrade Policy Action2026-10-01 · United StatesU.S. Treasury sanctions Iran Khodro and other major firmsU.S. Department of the Treasury (United States)→Iran Khodro (IKCO) (Iran)Mag5.0Propagation59%Mkt sens70%Systemic50%
- sig 0.59POLITICALDestroy Property2026-10-03 · IranIran destroys Gohardasht Prison watchtowerIslamic Republic of Iran (Iran)→Gohardasht Prison watchtower (Iran)Goldstein-9.2Mag9.0Propagation34%Mkt sens5%Systemic20%
- sig 0.56POLITICALThreaten Blockade2026-10-04 · United StatesTrump threatens a US blockade of the Strait of HormuzUnited States (United States)→Iran (Iran)Goldstein-7.0Mag6.0Propagation54%Mkt sens5%Systemic70%
- sig 0.53BattlesArmed clash2026-10-01 · IranIranian Revolutionary Guard reports six gunmen killed in Zahedan clashesIslamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (Iran)→Unidentified Armed Group (Iran) (Iran)Goldstein-10.0
- sig 0.52POLITICALThreaten with Military Force2026-10-03 · United StatesPete Hegseth warns Iran as Trump keeps military options openPete Hegseth (United States)→Iran (Iran)Goldstein-7.0Mag6.0Propagation54%Mkt sens5%Systemic28%
- sig 0.51POLITICALMobilize/increase Armed Forces2026-10-04 · United StatesUnited States deploys 9,000 personnel to the Middle EastUnited States (United States)→Iran (Iran)Goldstein-7.2Mag7.0Propagation42%Mkt sens5%Systemic23%
- sig 0.51POLITICALMobilize/increase Armed Forces2026-09-30 · IsraelIsraeli Air Force scrambles fighters after Flydubai alertIsraeli Air Force (Israel)→Flydubai aircraft (United Arab Emirates)Goldstein-7.2Mag7.0Propagation28%Mkt sens5%Systemic11%
- sig 0.51Violence against civiliansAttack2026-09-30 · IranIranian authorities execute two men linked to Mashhad protestsIranian authorities (Iran)→Ali Hemati and Majid Nikandish (Iran)Goldstein-9.0
- sig 0.50POLITICALDemand Easing of Economic Sanctions, Boycott, or Embargo2026-10-01 · United StatesIran demands US lift oil sanctions in Hormuz reopening proposalIran (Iran)→United States (United States)Goldstein-5.0Mag5.0Propagation48%Mkt sens5%Systemic63%
- sig 0.50ECONOMICCurrency Event2026-09-30 · IranCentral Bank of Iran lets market set rial exchange rateCentral Bank of Iran (Iran)→Iranian rial (Iran)Mag5.0Propagation52%Mkt sens70%Systemic42%
- sig 0.49POLITICALExhibit Force Posture2026-10-04 · IranIranian Army begins civilian military training in TehranIranian Army (Iran)→Iranian citizens (Iran)Goldstein-7.2Mag7.0Propagation40%Mkt sens5%Systemic17%
- sig 0.49POLITICALCoerce2026-10-05 · IranCENTCOM redirects 130 commercial ships under Iran blockadeCENTCOM (United States)→130 commercial shipsGoldstein-5.0Mag7.0Propagation51%Mkt sens38%Systemic40%
- sig 0.49POLITICALExhibit Force Posture2026-10-03 · IranIran opens Tehran center to train civilians for defenseIran (Iran)→United States (United States)Goldstein-7.2Mag7.0Propagation36%Mkt sens5%Systemic13%
- sig 0.48POLITICALExhibit Force Posture2026-10-02 · United StatesUnited States deploys Patriot systems in the Gulf amid Iran tensionsUnited States (United States)→Iran (Iran)Goldstein-7.2Mag7.0Propagation41%Mkt sens5%Systemic25%
Stories · article clusters · by reach
Story2026-10-02· Iransig 0.67Trump threatens Iran over copilot's alleged attempt to crash flight to Israel497 articles4 linked eventsConflict securityvia aljazeera.com
Story2026-10-01· United Kingdomsig 0.60UK PM says Iran likely played role in suspected Fairford terror plot261 articlesConflict securityvia aljazeera.com
Story2026-10-04· United Arab Emiratessig 0.57Flydubai reportedly hired Omani pilot despite extremist concerns and no background check185 articles1 linked eventCrimevia latimes.com
Story2026-10-01· United Statessig 0.52Rubio asks Iranian delegation to leave New York City124 articles1 linked eventPoliticalvia foxnews.com
Story2026-10-03· United Statessig 0.52Trump urges Americans to endure high fuel prices as Iran war continues114 articlesPoliticalvia bbc.com
Story2026-09-30· Iransig 0.50Iran threatens new strikes as it awaits US response to Hormuz plan100 articles4 linked eventsConflict securityvia aawsat.com
Story2026-10-03· United Kingdomsig 0.50Two Iranian men charged over alleged bomb plot targeting Manchester Jewish community96 articlesConflict securityvia bbc.com
Story2026-10-01· Ukrainesig 0.48Russia launches missiles and drones in new attacks on Kyiv, Ukraine83 articles1 linked eventConflict securityvia 15min.lt
Named entities
- IIIslamic Republic of IranplaceArticles2Stories1Events0
- IIIran InternationalorganizationArticles0Stories0Events0
- IAIranian Armed ForcesorganizationArticles1Stories1Events1
- HMHouthi movementorganizationArticles95Stories69Events27
- IRIranian Revolutionary GuardorganizationArticles37Stories28Events15
- IAIran AirorganizationArticles4Stories4Events1
- IAIranian ArmyorganizationArticles8Stories8Events3
- CBCentral Bank of IranorganizationArticles7Stories7Events2
- IPIranian Parliament religious minority reserved seatsorganizationArticles0Stories0Events0
- IRIslamic Republic of Iran Armed ForcesorganizationArticles0Stories0Events0
Illustrative web context · sample text, not sourced reporting(frozen capture — not the live window above)
Illustrative sample· 2026-05-17
War-risk insurance premiums spike on Strait of Hormuz tankers
Marine war-risk underwriters lifted premiums on VLCCs transiting the Strait of Hormuz by 35 basis points this week, citing escalating tensions...
Illustrative sample· 2026-05-12
IRGC seizes Greek-flagged tanker near Larak Island
Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps boarded and seized a Greek-flagged tanker near Larak Island, the third such seizure this year...
Illustrative sample· 2026-05-08
GCC oil ministers warn of supply disruption risk
Gulf Cooperation Council oil ministers convened an emergency session as renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions threaten to disrupt 20% of global oil flow...
How this demo is built: every panel above is rendered from the GDELT Cloud public REST API (events, stories, entities, energy assets) plus frozen illustrative macro and web snapshots. The retired Alpha Vantage proxy is no longer called. The standalone Python repo at github.com/gdelt-cloud/demos reproduces this entire brief with one API key.