War-Risk Underwriting · Demo
Strait of Hormuz Underwriting Brief
A weekly operating picture of the Strait of Hormuz — last 7 days, sized for a marine war-risk underwriter pricing a tanker hull/war policy. Built on the GDELT Cloud public API + MCP macro snapshot. Other demos →
Last refreshed: 2026-05-23 22:06 UTC · auto-refreshed every 24h
Executive brief
Strait of Hormuz · weekly · last 7 days
- Volume
100 structured events and 9 story clusters across 4 countries, 2026-05-15 → 2026-05-21. - Dominant narrative
Largest story cluster: "Modi pledges support to UAE during bilateral talks with President Zayed Al Nahyan" (38 articles). Most-mentioned actors: Iran, Iranians, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. - Casualties
No fatal incidents recorded in the window — narrative dominated by political and infrastructure events, not direct kinetic exchanges. - Macro context
Brent Crude Oil +11.6% over the window (now 89.4 USD/bbl). Move is consistent with elevated risk premium. - Infrastructure
60 oil/gas + LNG assets in the geographic window (75.0 GW total) — defines the exposure footprint for shipping, insurance, and energy security.
Bottom line · Pricing posture: war-risk premium justifies a 15-35bps uplift on through-strait tonnage given the macro move and 100+ in-window events.
Events
100
Iran · Oman · UAE · Qatar
Fatal incidents
0
0 fatalities
Story clusters
9
≥12 articles
Energy MW at risk
75.0k
across 60 assets
Section 2 — Strait of Hormuz disruption picture
Layers
Legend · circles = events (size = magnitude, color = Goldstein severity) · diamonds = story clusters (size = article count) · squares = oil/gas + LNG terminals · click any marker for detail. Persian Gulf carries ~20% of global oil flow through the strait.
Section 3 — Marine war-risk macro · 30-day trend
Brent Crude Oil
89.4 USD/bbl▲ +11.6%
2026-03-222026-05-20
WTI Crude Oil
85.6 USD/bbl▲ +12.9%
2026-03-222026-05-20
Source: Alpha Vantage via GDELT Cloud MCP macro_finance proxy.
Section 4 — Top events · stories · named entities
Events · structured incidents · by significance
- sig 0.61POLITICALSign formal agreement2026-05-19 · United Arab EmiratesModi strengthens India’s energy security during UAE visit amid Middle East tensionsIndia (India)→United Arab Emirates (United Arab Emirates)Goldstein8.0Mag8.0Propagation30%Mkt sens80%Systemic60%
- sig 0.61POLITICALEngage in negotiation2026-05-16 · IranEuropean talks with Iran to authorize Strait of Hormuz passageEuropean countries→Iran (Iran)Goldstein7.0Mag7.0Propagation40%Mkt sens90%Systemic80%
- sig 0.61POLITICALSign formal agreement2026-05-15 · United Arab EmiratesModi and UAE President sign new energy and defense pacts during UAE visitIndia (India)→United Arab Emirates (United Arab Emirates)Goldstein8.0Mag8.0Propagation30%Mkt sens70%Systemic60%
- sig 0.60POLITICALSign formal agreement2026-05-20 · United Arab EmiratesUAE and France sign new defense cooperation agreementUnited Arab Emirates Ministry of Defence (United Arab Emirates)→France (France)Goldstein8.0Mag9.0Propagation30%Mkt sens50%Systemic60%
- sig 0.58POLITICALCooperate economically2026-05-20 · South KoreaKorean tanker attempts Hormuz transit after Seoul-Tehran coordinationSouth Korea (South Korea)→Iran (Iran)Goldstein6.4Mag7.0Propagation40%Mkt sens80%Systemic70%
- sig 0.55POLITICALSign formal agreement2026-05-19 · FranceUAE and France sign military cooperation agreementUnited Arab Emirates (United Arab Emirates)→France (France)Goldstein8.0Mag8.0Propagation30%Mkt sens20%Systemic60%
- sig 0.54POLITICALMediate2026-05-18 · IranIran in talks with Oman to develop new Strait of Hormuz management mechanismIran (Iran)→Oman (Oman)Goldstein5.0Mag6.0Propagation50%Mkt sens80%Systemic80%
- sig 0.54POLITICALImpose sanctions / restrict transit2026-05-18 · IranIran bans enemy military equipment through Strait of HormuzIran (Iran)→enemy countriesGoldstein-8.0Mag2.0Propagation50%Mkt sens80%Systemic80%
- sig 0.52POLITICALDemand Policy Support2026-05-16 · United StatesTrump says Iran must open Strait of Hormuz for sanctions reliefUnited States (United States)→Iran (Iran)Goldstein-5.0Mag3.0Propagation70%Mkt sens90%Systemic80%
- sig 0.50ECONOMICMarket Stress Event2026-05-19 · IranFew foreign ships pass Strait of Hormuz amid Iran insurance plan reportsIran-linked shipping environment (Iran)→Foreign commercial shippingMag7.0Propagation80%Mkt sens95%Systemic95%
- sig 0.50POLITICALSign formal agreement2026-05-16 · IranIran and Pakistan agree to facilitate border trade exchangesIran (Iran)→Pakistan (Pakistan)Goldstein8.0Mag8.0Propagation20%Mkt sens15%Systemic35%
- sig 0.48POLITICALIntent to mediate2026-05-15 · ChinaTrump and Xi say China will help resolve Iran tensions and block nuclear armsXi Jinping (China)→Iran (Iran)Goldstein4.0Mag6.0Propagation40%Mkt sens60%Systemic70%
- sig 0.48POLITICALPraise or endorse2026-05-15 · United Arab EmiratesModi urges “open and safe” Strait of Hormuz during UAE visitNarendra Modi (India)→Strait of HormuzGoldstein3.4Mag6.0Propagation40%Mkt sens80%Systemic70%
- sig 0.47POLITICALPraise or endorse2026-05-15 · IndiaIran claims joint Strait of Hormuz plan, putting Oman in US-Iran crossfireIran (Iran)→Oman (Oman)Goldstein3.4Mag6.0Propagation40%Mkt sens80%Systemic70%
- sig 0.46POLITICALThreaten to boycott/sanction2026-05-20 · United StatesTrump says no U.S. sanctions relief for Iran until deal is finalizedDonald Trump (United States)→Iran (Iran)Goldstein-5.8Mag2.0Propagation30%Mkt sens80%Systemic70%
Stories · article clusters · by reach
Story2026-05-15· United Arab Emiratessig 0.48Modi pledges support to UAE during bilateral talks with President Zayed Al Nahyan38 articles1 linked eventcameoplus_politicalvia news.webindia123.com
Story2026-05-16· United Arab Emiratessig 0.59India and UAE sign landmark energy and defence pacts during Modi’s visit10 articles1 linked eventcameoplus_politicalvia arabherald.com
Story2026-05-18· United Statessig 0.48Donald Trump rejects Iran’s latest nuclear counteroffer amid stalled talks10 articles1 linked eventcameoplus_politicalvia sot.com.al
Story2026-05-20· United Statessig 0.42Trump says Iran nuclear talks near final stages; Iran reviews U.S. proposal8 articles1 linked eventcameoplus_politicalvia al-monitor.com
Story2026-05-20· Iransig 0.40Pakistan Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi makes second visit to Tehran amid Iran-US impasse5 articles1 linked eventcameoplus_politicalvia pakobserver.net
Story2026-05-16· Italysig 0.40Europe Gulf Forum officials urge Iran’s IRGC to reopen Strait of Hormuz5 articles1 linked eventcameoplus_politicalvia ansa.it
Story2026-05-15· United Statessig 0.37Trump rejects Iran’s peace proposal, saying first sentence was unacceptable5 articles1 linked eventcameoplus_politicalvia gazeta-shqip.com
Story2026-05-15· Indiasig 0.33Iran says India should play greater role in West Asia peace amid Hormuz tensions5 articles1 linked eventcameoplus_politicalvia newindianexpress.com
Named entities
IranorganizationArticles471Stories345Events45
IranianspersonArticles68Stories54Events6
Iranian Revolutionary Guard CorpsorganizationArticles22Stories20Events0
Iranian ParliamentorganizationArticles29Stories22Events4
Iran InternationalorganizationArticles9Stories9Events0
Iranian Armed ForcesorganizationArticles14Stories11Events3
Supreme LeaderpersonArticles19Stories17Events2
Iranian Red Crescent SocietyorganizationArticles8Stories8Events0- IIranian AmericanspersonArticles4Stories2Events2
- IIranian Student UnionorganizationArticles1Stories1Events0
Web research · narrative context
Lloyd's List (sample)· 2026-05-17
War-risk insurance premiums spike on Strait of Hormuz tankers
Marine war-risk underwriters lifted premiums on VLCCs transiting the Strait of Hormuz by 35 basis points this week, citing escalating tensions...
Reuters (sample)· 2026-05-12
IRGC seizes Greek-flagged tanker near Larak Island
Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps boarded and seized a Greek-flagged tanker near Larak Island, the third such seizure this year...
FT (sample)· 2026-05-08
GCC oil ministers warn of supply disruption risk
Gulf Cooperation Council oil ministers convened an emergency session as renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions threaten to disrupt 20% of global oil flow...
How this demo is built: every panel above is rendered from the GDELT Cloud public REST API (events, stories, entities, energy assets) plus a daily snapshot of the macro_finance and web_research MCP tools. The standalone Python repo at github.com/gdelt-cloud/demos reproduces this entire brief with one API key.