Commodity Supply Chain · Demo
Bauxite Supply-Chain Monitor
Global aluminum smelters source 75% of their bauxite from Guinea, Indonesia, and Australia. This monitor follows the political-risk, infrastructure, and trade events shaping those three regions — sized for a conglomerate Group Risk team. Other demos →
Last refreshed: 2026-10-06 09:31 UTC · auto-refreshed every 24h
Executive brief
Guinea + Indonesia + Australia · weekly · last 7 days
- Volume
144 structured events and 30 story clusters across GIN + IDN + AUS, 2026-09-30 → 2026-10-06. - Dominant narrative
Largest story cluster: "New South Wales approves Hunter Valley coal mine expansion, risking 800 million tonnes" (16 articles). - Casualties
No fatal incidents recorded in the window — narrative dominated by political and infrastructure events, not direct kinetic exchanges. - Macro context
LME Aluminum Spot +7.4% over the window (now 2589.0 USD/tonne). Move is consistent with elevated risk premium.
Bottom line · Sourcing posture: GIN + IDN + AUS all currently shipping; no Cat-1 supply disruption signal in the window. Maintain standard diversification.
Three-country panel · sourcing risk
Guinea
GIN
24
events / window
CBG · SMB · top global bauxite producer
Avg Goldstein2.2· Cooperative
−10 conflict0+10 cooperative
CAMEO+ rubric scores · avg over window
Propagation24%
Market sensitivity12%
Systemic importance14%
Articles
15
Avg Magnitude
2.3
Fatalities
0
Top actor · Government of Guinea
Top story · 4 articles
Guinea lifts suspension on logging, timber imports and transportIndonesia
IDN
60
events / window
PT Antam · refining build-out · export bans
Avg Goldstein1.5· Cooperative
−10 conflict0+10 cooperative
CAMEO+ rubric scores · avg over window
Propagation30%
Market sensitivity22%
Systemic importance18%
Articles
17
Avg Magnitude
2.9
Fatalities
0
Top actor · Indonesian government
Top story · 3 articles
Agreement signed to establish MRO services at Muscat International AirportAustralia
AUS
60
events / window
Rio Tinto Weipa · Alcoa · stable supply
Avg Goldstein-2.8· Tense
−10 conflict0+10 cooperative
CAMEO+ rubric scores · avg over window
Propagation31%
Market sensitivity39%
Systemic importance20%
Articles
29
Avg Magnitude
4.0
Fatalities
0
Top actor · Australian Government
Top story · 16 articles
New South Wales approves Hunter Valley coal mine expansion, risking 800 million tonnesGeographic picture
Loading geographic view...
Legend · circles = events (size = magnitude, color = Goldstein severity) · diamonds = story clusters (size = article count) · click any marker for detail.
LME aluminum spot · 30-day trend
LME Aluminum Spot
2589.0 USD/tonne▲ +7.4%
2026-03-222026-05-20
Illustrative frozen macro snapshot. The former Alpha Vantage MCP proxy is retired; use native macro tools for supported FRED series.
What changed this week · structured events by sourcing country
Guinea
24 events
- sig 0.36ECONOMICFiscal Policy Action2026-10-05 · GuineaWorld Bank commits over $3 billion to Guinea’s transformationWorld Bank→Guinea (Guinea)Mag4.0Propagation30%Mkt sens50%Systemic25%
- sig 0.35POLITICALDemand Release of Persons or Property2026-10-02 · NigeriaECOWAS demands Guinea release opposition figure Aliou BahECOWAS→Guinea (Guinea)Goldstein-5.0Mag5.0Propagation30%Mkt sens5%Systemic18%
- sig 0.33CORPORATESupply Chain Shock2026-10-05 · GuineaEmirates Global Aluminium resumes bauxite imports from GuineaEmirates Global Aluminium (United Arab Emirates)→Guinean bauxite supply (Guinea)Mag3.0Propagation30%Mkt sens60%Systemic20%
- sig 0.32POLITICALReturn, Release Persons2026-10-05 · GuineaDoumbouya pardons and frees Guinea opposition leader Aliou BahGuinean President Mamadi Doumbouya (Guinea)→Aliou Bah (Guinea)Goldstein7.0Mag1.0Propagation28%Mkt sens5%Systemic8%
- sig 0.32POLITICALProvide Humanitarian Aid2026-10-02 · GuineaChina’s Auspicious Ark docks in Conakry to provide free careChina (China)→Guinea (Guinea)Goldstein7.4Mag1.0Propagation25%Mkt sens5%Systemic7%
Indonesia
60 events
- sig 0.52POLITICALMobilize/increase Armed Forces2026-10-05 · IndonesiaPrabowo inaugurates new Indonesian military commands and unitsPrabowo Subianto (Indonesia)Goldstein-7.2Mag7.0Propagation32%Mkt sens5%Systemic27%
- sig 0.45POLITICALThreaten2026-09-30 · IndonesiaMeutya Hafid threatens platform access over underage accountsIndonesian Minister of Communication and Digital Affairs Meutya Hafid (Indonesia)→Meta (United States)Goldstein-5.8Mag6.0Propagation32%Mkt sens40%Systemic12%
- sig 0.43ECONOMICMonetary Policy Action2026-10-01 · IndonesiaBank Indonesia adds corporate bonds to monetary operations collateralBank Indonesia (Indonesia)Mag3.0Propagation40%Mkt sens47%Systemic55%
- sig 0.43POLITICALMobilize/increase Armed Forces2026-09-30 · IndonesiaRussian Pacific Fleet forces arrive in IndonesiaRussian Pacific Fleet (Russia)→Indonesia (Indonesia)Goldstein-7.2Mag7.0Propagation26%Mkt sens5%Systemic10%
- sig 0.39CORPORATERegulatory or Legal Action2026-10-01 · IndonesiaOJK revokes PT Credit Saison Indonesia Finance licenceOJK (Indonesia)→PT Credit Saison Indonesia Finance (Indonesia)Mag4.0Propagation32%Mkt sens70%Systemic12%
Australia
60 events
- sig 0.56POLITICALDestroy Property2026-10-01 · AustraliaNew South Wales government destroys 23 seized illegal e-bikesNew South Wales government (Australia)→23 illegal e-bikes (Australia)Goldstein-9.2Mag9.0Propagation28%Mkt sens5%Systemic7%
- sig 0.52CORPORATEMerger or Acquisition2026-10-03 · South AfricaGold Fields bids $27bn for Northern Star in proposed mergerGold Fields (South Africa)→Northern Star (Australia)Mag7.0Propagation32%Mkt sens50%Systemic45%
- sig 0.50CORPORATEMerger or Acquisition2026-10-01 · BrazilLynas agrees to acquire Meteoric Resources’ Brazil rare-earth projectLynas Rare Earths (Australia)→Meteoric Resources (Australia)Mag4.0Propagation48%Mkt sens70%Systemic45%
- sig 0.49POLITICALImpose Administrative Sanctions2026-10-01 · AustraliaAustralian Government ends card surcharges nationwideAustralian Government (Australia)→Australian merchants (Australia)Goldstein-5.0Mag7.0Propagation40%Mkt sens47%Systemic30%
- sig 0.48CORPORATECapital Allocation Event2026-10-02 · AustraliaFirmus Grid prices Australian IPO at A$11 a shareFirmus Grid Ltd. (Australia)Mag7.0Propagation30%Mkt sens60%Systemic20%
Top story clusters · article reach across all three countries
- Story2026-09-30· Australiasig 0.31New South Wales approves Hunter Valley coal mine expansion, risking 800 million tonnes16 articles1 linked eventEnvironmentvia theguardian.com
- Story2026-09-30· Australiasig 0.19Bell Bay Aluminium secures $200 million rescue package to protect 550 jobs5 articles1 linked eventEconomicvia abc.net.au
- Story2026-10-01· Guineasig 0.17Guinea lifts suspension on logging, timber imports and transport4 articles1 linked eventEconomicvia guineenews.org
- Story2026-10-05· Omansig 0.15Agreement signed to establish MRO services at Muscat International Airport3 articles1 linked eventCorporatevia omanobserver.om
- Story2026-10-05· Guineasig 0.12Emirates Global Aluminium resumes Guinean bauxite imports with 66,000-ton shipment2 articles1 linked eventEconomicvia albayan.ae
- Story2026-10-03· Guineasig 0.12Guinea introduces new procedure for refined gold exports2 articlesEconomicvia guineenews.org
- Story2026-10-05· Indonesiasig 0.12Indonesia and Chile explore green mining and critical minerals ties2 articlesPoliticalvia antaranews.com
- Story2026-10-02· Indonesiasig 0.12Indonesia and US deepen trade cooperation from downstreaming to rare earths2 articlesPoliticalvia antaranews.com
- Story2026-09-30· Indonesiasig 0.12Indonesia holds subsidized fuel prices steady despite oil surge2 articles1 linked eventEconomicvia ekonomi.republika.co.id
Illustrative web context · sample text, not sourced reporting
Illustrative sample· 2026-05-16
Guinea bauxite exports rebound after junta lifts restrictions
Bauxite shipments from Guinea recovered 18% month-over-month after the transitional government relaxed export controls imposed earlier this year...
Illustrative sample· 2026-05-11
Indonesia mining ministry signals new aluminum smelter incentives
Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is preparing tax incentives for domestic aluminum smelters to capture more downstream value...
Illustrative sample· 2026-05-07
LME aluminum stocks at 18-month low; Hindalco signals capacity expansion
LME warehouses are holding aluminum at the lowest level since late 2024, with Hindalco Industries hinting at a 200kt annual capacity expansion at its Mahan smelter...
How this demo is built: three independent country queries to /api/v2/events + /api/v2/stories, merged in JSX. The LME aluminum overlay is a frozen illustrative snapshot, not a live MCP call. Standalone Python repo: github.com/gdelt-cloud/demos.